Wednesday, July 10, 2019

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 10, 2019

Gasoline Demand

Gasoline demand: most recent week -- at 9.754 million bpd, getting very, very close to a record milestone, 10 million b/d -- never been done before as far as I know.

Updates

Later, 9:51 a.m. CT:
Making America great: according to Z4 Research -- the largest piece of the 9.5-million-bbl decrease was the 6.7-million-bbl decrease long the Gulf Coast due to exports and higher gulf coast refining. This is a huge, huge story.

Adjustment: #OOTT says the crude adjustment factors plunges by 812K bpd w/w to -472K bpd which explains a decrease of 5.68 million bbls w/w -- crude inventory shift. If that's accurate, then starting next week, we will be comparing apples to apples. This week, we were comparing apples to oranges. But it appears there's a difference of opinion regarding drop in inventory between #OOTT and Z4 Research, if I'm reading both tweets correctly. 
Original Post

EIA's weekly petroleum report: pending
  • US crude oil inventories, last week: decreased by a whopping 9.5 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: at 459.0 million bbls, about 4% above the five-year average
  • refining capacity: 94.7% capacity; on the high side;
  • WTI at 9:06 a.m. CT (supposedly before the EIA data is known): $59.53
  • WTI at 9:45 a.m. CT (fifteen minutes after release of EIA data): $59.42; this suggests to me that movers and shakers saw data before it was released to general public -- just saying -- either that, or analysts were really, really good at predicting the EIA report today --
  • imports: about 12% less than the same four-week period last year (this speaks volumes for the US refiners -- adapting to the glut of light oil coming from the Permian)
  • jet fuel: an anomaly? something not often seen -- jet fuel supplied was down almost 4% compared with same four-week period last year
Making America great: according to Z4 Research -- the largest piece of the 9.5-million-bbl decrease was the 6.7-million-bbl decrease long the Gulf Coast due to exports and higher gulf coast refining. Wow. 

The question, of course, is whether the EIA has adjusted the way it measures US crude oil inventories The adjustment has already occurred, or will occur. I don't know where that stands.

Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8
Week 27
May 30, 2019
-0.3
476.5
Week 28
June 5, 2019
6.8
483.3
Week 29
June 12, 2019
2.2
485.5
Week 30
June 19, 2019
-3.1
482.4
Week 31
June 26, 2019
-12.8
469.6
Week 32
July 3, 2019
-1.1
468.5
Week 33
July 10, 2019
-9.5
459.0

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