EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 10, 2019

Gasoline Demand

Gasoline demand: most recent week -- at 9.754 million bpd, getting very, very close to a record milestone, 10 million b/d -- never been done before as far as I know.

Updates

Later, 9:51 a.m. CT:

Making America great: according to Z4 Research -- the largest piece of the 9.5-million-bbl decrease was the 6.7-million-bbl decrease long the Gulf Coast due to exports and higher gulf coast refining. This is a huge, huge story.

Adjustment: #OOTT says the crude adjustment factors plunges by 812K bpd w/w to -472K bpd which explains a decrease of 5.68 million bbls w/w -- crude inventory shift. If that's accurate, then starting next week, we will be comparing apples to apples. This week, we were comparing apples to oranges. But it appears there's a difference of opinion regarding drop in inventory between #OOTT and Z4 Research, if I'm reading both tweets correctly. 

Original Post

EIA's weekly petroleum report: pending

• US crude oil inventories, last week: decreased by a whopping 9.5 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories: at 459.0 million bbls, about 4% above the five-year average
• refining capacity: 94.7% capacity; on the high side;
• WTI at 9:06 a.m. CT (supposedly before the EIA data is known): $59.53
• WTI at 9:45 a.m. CT (fifteen minutes after release of EIA data): $59.42; this suggests to me that movers and shakers saw data before it was released to general public -- just saying -- either that, or analysts were really, really good at predicting the EIA report today --
• imports: about 12% less than the same four-week period last year (this speaks volumes for the US refiners -- adapting to the glut of light oil coming from the Permian)
• jet fuel: an anomaly? something not often seen -- jet fuel supplied was down almost 4% compared with same four-week period last year

Making America great: according to Z4 Research -- the largest piece of the 9.5-million-bbl decrease was the 6.7-million-bbl decrease long the Gulf Coast due to exports and higher gulf coast refining. Wow. 

The question, of course, is whether the EIA has adjusted the way it measures US crude oil inventories The adjustment has already occurred, or will occur. I don't know where that stands.

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0