Monday, July 15, 2019

Agriculture -- Part 5, July 15, 2019

Updates

August 16, 2019: 2Q19 earnings -- 
  • net income of $867M in the fiscal third quarter, or $2.71 per share, compared with $$849M, or $2.59 per share a year ago
  • worldwide net sales decreased 3% Y/Y to $10B
  • segment sales: 
    • equipment -3%; 
    • agriculture & Turf. -6%;
    • construction & Forestry +1%. 
  • "Results reflected the high degree of uncertainty that continues to overshadow the agricultural sector," CEO Samuel Allen declared. "Concerns about export-market access, near-term demand for commodities such as soybeans, and overall crop conditions, have caused many farmers to postpone major equipment purchases." 
  • lowered outlook again: net sales are now projected to increase by about 4% (from a prior 5% and 7%) for fiscal 2019, with net income attributable to the company forecast to be about $3.2B (from a previous $3.3B and $3.6B).
Original Post
 
Wow, wow, wow, earlier today I posted this:
Look at this, DE: trading near its 52-week high, is up over 1% in early morning trading

Which reminds me, the China-US tariff tiff --

  • when did you last see an article on how expensive stuff is getting because of the China-US tariff war; you haven't; because it hasn't happened; 
  • generally speaking Deere's prospects can be directly correlated with how farmers are doing, or how analysts think farmers will do 
    • April 15, 2019:  170
    • May 13 2019: 135
    • July 15, 2019: 167
  • behind the scenes, my hunch is that Trump-Xi are making a lot of US agricultural deals
  • corn prices are going to come in really high later this year
  • if I recall correctly, Trump administration blinked on biofuel quotas (but don't quote me on that)
  • and, headline over at Yahoo!Finance: China's economy grows at slowest pace since 1990s (this could spur China to get serious about negotiating with Trump
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, job, career, travel, relationship, or financial decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

So, this morning I write this long note about Deere. Now tonight I notice that Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is up over 3% in overnight futures. Checking a bit deeper it turns out that Tractor Supply came very close to hitting a 52-week high today, an intra-day high of $113.14, vs a 52-week high of $113.54. And now tonight, trading 3% higher, trading at $115.00. Very, very interesting. First Deere, then Tractor Supply. Dare we look at any others? Not tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.