Sunday, October 21, 2018

$8 Million In One Year For An Old Bakken Well -- BR Merton -- October 21, 0218; The Dreaded Bakken Decline Rate

Neither NDIC nor FracFocus has data to suggest this well was re-fracked:
  • 17471, 793, BR, Merton 1-3H, North Fork, t4/09; cum 460K 8/18; look at production jump that begain in 8/16, but note the huge production in 4/17 --
BAKKEN7-2017301448814307205517533174610
BAKKEN6-2017301768317545320324372242980
BAKKEN5-2017311868118871474525391253140
BAKKEN4-2017302065320495577529028289540
BAKKEN3-2017311848918798500425614255370
BAKKEN2-2017281897818572502625288252180
BAKKEN1-2017301400714279447219425193520
BAKKEN12-2016281068810526412811625115550
BAKKEN11-20161692609348334913085130450
BAKKEN10-201618752774022085930692630
BAKKEN9-2016291352213593345418355182830
BAKKEN8-2016211033310192301611993119450
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-201624127413881169245423940
BAKKEN3-201631181421381527340433270
BAKKEN2-201629173414221421317531030
BAKKEN1-201631198219151548317831010
BAKKEN12-201531175818811368243023458
BAKKEN11-201530179319141429220621310
BAKKEN10-201531197018631572276926920
BAKKEN9-201530198318261616193518600
BAKKEN8-201531205422261607171416360


The graphic:



Note the two wells running opposite direction of #17499 (the well noted above).

Both those wells were fracked at the very same time the production of #17499 jumped significantly, in 8/16:
  • 25199, 2,928, BR, Merton 21-15MBH 2NH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 379K 8/18;
  • 25201, 3,360, BR, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 395K 8/18; 
Now, of the two wells running north, what well was closed to the index well, #17471, a middle Bakken well?

The answer: #25201, a Three Forks well.

In the year after the frack of the neighboring wells, the index well produced 174,309 bbls, well above the 20,000 bbls it produced in the previous 12 months.

174,309 - 20,000 = 172309 bbls x $50 = $8.6 million over 12 months for a well that appears not to have been re-fracked. (It is possible the well was re-fracked; I just don't see the data that would "prove" it.)

*******************************
I Just Love Reading Anecdotes About Paul Dirac

From The God Problem, Howard Bloom, c. 2016, p. 542:
With his pointed chin, his high forehead, his near-Mohawk-like-shock of hair, and his intense eyes, Paul Dirac looked as if he was flying through life.
But he was doing it quietly.
So quietly that if he spoke two sentences during a dinner party, it was counted as a night of stunning loquacity.
For example, there was the dinner party where Dirac was seated next to another bright man known for his silence, the celebrated E. M. Forster. It is said that Dirac and Forster both sat in utter wordlessness through the soup course. Then, just before the main course arrived, Dirac became chatty. He turnd to Forster, whose works he had read, and asked, "What happened in the cave?" He was referring to a cave that had appeared in a crucial scene in Forster's book A Passage to India. And those six syllables were Dirac's only words. Forster said nothing. But he had been listening. He was just thinking the question through. Both Forster and Dirac remained in silence through the main course. They maintained their silence until the dessert arrived. Then Forster turned to Dirac with an answer: "I do not know."
No wonder one of London's newspapers said Dirac was "shy as a gazelle, and modest as a Victorian maid."
Upon re-reading that, one wonders if "internally," both Forster and Dirac were running at what "we" would consider "normal" time. Is "time" relative? Is time "relative' for each of us? Or think about the time delays in interviews on television between an anchor in New York City and a talking head in Tel Aviv.

Paul Dirac, by the way, is more commonly remembered as Paul A. M. Dirac. I wonder if he thought about his "A. M. Dirac" moniker and the moniker of E. M. Forster.

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