$8 Million In One Year For An Old Bakken Well -- BR Merton -- October 21, 0218; The Dreaded Bakken Decline Rate

Neither NDIC nor FracFocus has data to suggest this well was re-fracked:

• 17471, 793, BR, Merton 1-3H, North Fork, t4/09; cum 460K 8/18; look at production jump that begain in 8/16, but note the huge production in 4/17 --

BAKKEN	7-2017	30	14488	14307	2055	17533	17461	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	17683	17545	3203	24372	24298	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	18681	18871	4745	25391	25314	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	20653	20495	5775	29028	28954	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	18489	18798	5004	25614	25537	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	18978	18572	5026	25288	25218	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	30	14007	14279	4472	19425	19352	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	28	10688	10526	4128	11625	11555	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	16	9260	9348	3349	13085	13045	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	18	7527	7402	2085	9306	9263	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	29	13522	13593	3454	18355	18283	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	21	10333	10192	3016	11993	11945	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	24	1274	1388	1169	2454	2394	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	1814	2138	1527	3404	3327	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	1734	1422	1421	3175	3103	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	1982	1915	1548	3178	3101	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	1758	1881	1368	2430	2345	8
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	1793	1914	1429	2206	2131	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	1970	1863	1572	2769	2692	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	1983	1826	1616	1935	1860	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	2054	2226	1607	1714	1636	0

The graphic:

Note the two wells running opposite direction of #17499 (the well noted above).

Both those wells were fracked at the very same time the production of #17499 jumped significantly, in 8/16:

• 25199, 2,928, BR, Merton 21-15MBH 2NH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 379K 8/18;
• 25201, 3,360, BR, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 395K 8/18; 

Now, of the two wells running north, what well was closed to the index well, #17471, a middle Bakken well?

The answer: #25201, a Three Forks well.

In the year after the frack of the neighboring wells, the index well produced 174,309 bbls, well above the 20,000 bbls it produced in the previous 12 months.

174,309 - 20,000 = 172309 bbls x $50 = $8.6 million over 12 months for a well that appears not to have been re-fracked. (It is possible the well was re-fracked; I just don't see the data that would "prove" it.)

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I Just Love Reading Anecdotes About Paul Dirac

From The God Problem, Howard Bloom, c. 2016, p. 542:

With his pointed chin, his high forehead, his near-Mohawk-like-shock of hair, and his intense eyes, Paul Dirac looked as if he was flying through life.

But he was doing it quietly.

So quietly that if he spoke two sentences during a dinner party, it was counted as a night of stunning loquacity.

For example, there was the dinner party where Dirac was seated next to another bright man known for his silence, the celebrated E. M. Forster. It is said that Dirac and Forster both sat in utter wordlessness through the soup course. Then, just before the main course arrived, Dirac became chatty. He turnd to Forster, whose works he had read, and asked, "What happened in the cave?" He was referring to a cave that had appeared in a crucial scene in Forster's book A Passage to India. And those six syllables were Dirac's only words. Forster said nothing. But he had been listening. He was just thinking the question through. Both Forster and Dirac remained in silence through the main course. They maintained their silence until the dessert arrived. Then Forster turned to Dirac with an answer: "I do not know."

No wonder one of London's newspapers said Dirac was "shy as a gazelle, and modest as a Victorian maid."

Upon re-reading that, one wonders if "internally," both Forster and Dirac were running at what "we" would consider "normal" time. Is "time" relative? Is time "relative' for each of us? Or think about the time delays in interviews on television between an anchor in New York City and a talking head in Tel Aviv.

Paul Dirac, by the way, is more commonly remembered as Paul A. M. Dirac. I wonder if he thought about his "A. M. Dirac" moniker and the moniker of E. M. Forster.