Wednesday, October 21, 2015

What They're Talking About In Williston -- October 21, 2015; Update On A New Madison Oil Field In North Dakota

They wouldn't be drilling if they weren't still making money, I don't suppose. Crescent Point reported an IP on a Bakken well (#29771) in Williams County, using a lot of stages (35) and a lot of proppant (5 million lbs)'; 1280-acre spacing.

Crescent Point started the kick-off point early in the morning (before sunrise, 4:00 a.m.) on April 27, 2015, and reached total depth just after midnight (0003) on May 14, 2015. Took awhile. The lateral is the tough drilling; reaching vertical depth should be fairly routine. This well was 27 miles north, 3.5 miles west of Williston. D and C facies of the middle Bakken; target was the 10' D & C facies. Max gas was 6,482 units.

The geologist's report was brutally honest: the horizontal well path did a poor job of following the formation dip. With the exception of one shale strike resulting in a sidetrack, 100% of the cased production well bore was drilled within the middle Bakken formation. 1.8% was drilled within the productive E facies rock of the middle Bakken formation. 26.9% was drilled within the productive D facies rock; 41.7% within the productive C facies rock; 16.2% was drilled within the less productive B facies rock of the middle Bakken formation; and, finally, 13.4% was drilled within the productive A facies rock of the middle Bakken. Ability to follow our 10' middle Bakken target zone fared poorly with 39.1% of the lateral being drilled within our 10' target window.

We've talked about that before.

And then nine more permits yesterday, four EOG, four BR, and then one by Berenergy. But I think folks are missing the big, big story right now -- how much oil is being stored underground. During the boom, frack spreads had trouble keeping up with the drilling and the fracklog was generally around 400, all for operational reasons.

Now with the low price of oil, operators are drilling to total depth but not completing the wells, and the state started using a new acronym (DUC) -- or at least new to me. The fracklog went from 400 to 800 fairly quickly. I think many of us thought it would plateau or peak at 800 and then start to drop again, with the one-year rule, but surprise, surprise, it hit 933 in the August data (Director's Cut, October, 2015). Every day I'm seeing more and more DUCs, it seems, and fewer and fewer of these DUCs being completed (the "producing wells completed" daily statistic).

By the way, getting back to that Berenergy / Chatfield oil field well. I could be wrong, but I think the Chatfield is a "new" Madison oil field in the Williston Basin. See this September 29, 2014, post. The field is 20 miles NNE of Minot.

Look at the Ballard wildcat that "discovered" the Chatfield (as far as I know):
  • 27319, 600, Ballard Petroleum, Fines 24-19, t6/14; cum 66K 8/15;
This is a vertical well; would have cost very little to drill, compared to a Bakken; no fracking, and in the first year, 66,000 bbls and look at the production profile. I don't see much of a decline:


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON8-201531403640014132500250
MADISON7-201531411841144272470247
MADISON6-2015304044413543024800
MADISON5-201531403340544332400240
MADISON4-201530438644474362390239
MADISON3-201531447943834732050205
MADISON2-2015284059407843914900
MADISON1-201531441746154782030150
MADISON12-20143147884420494000
MADISON11-20143043374514462000
MADISON10-20143147244718528000
MADISON9-20143047164810510000
MADISON8-20143152805164557000
MADISON7-20143155485607586000
MADISON6-20141331022839438000

The other Ballard well in the Chatfield:
  • 29807, 352, Ballard, Nelson 34-19, Chatfield, a Madison well, t3/15; cum 39K 8/15; 
Production profile for #29807:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON8-2015316221614410563760376
MADISON7-2015316118608111063840384
MADISON6-20153059295924112336900
MADISON5-2015316453642311943530353
MADISON4-2015306431649212443740374
MADISON3-2015317761762715575820582
MADISON2-2015100240000
 
See graphic below, to see where these two Ballard well are.

You know, if that Chatfield well works out, it brings us full circle. Shortly after starting the blog, I received a number of notes from readers -- no, that's not true -- I first heard it from a "hot shot" operator while I was visiting Williston. I was turning around on the road in front of his office, and actually got out of the Honda Civic to take a photo of the new Baker Hughes building west of Williston, and he came out and we talked, and he told me of the rumor of a "river" of oil NNE of Minot. I did not post that at the time for any number of reason. Mostly I didn't want to get him into trouble. Or me.




Sometimes I feel like I'm just beginning to see the light.

Beginning To See The Light, Velvet Underground

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