Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Five-Year-Production-By-Well; Rambling, Random Update Of The Very First 24 Wells That I Reported On, Coming Off The Confidential List -- July 29, 2014

The First 24 -- 1H2010

Since January 25, 2010, I have recorded every well that has been reported in North Dakota. The list starts here (1H10) (click on "the list starts here").

For the past couple of days, I've been updating the very first wells, the wells that were reported in 2010, which correctly or incorrectly I list as 1H10 (which is linked above).

It takes a lot of time to do this manually, but I do it because it gives me a "feel" for the Bakken. I haven't completely finished the list but I've done a lot of it, updating the total amount produced by each well as of 4/14 or 5/15, which at the time of updating was the most recent data available from the NDIC.

If one scrolls through the list, it is incredibly interesting all the things one can note. Randomly, in no particular order or importance attached to any of the data points. These are some things that jump out at me:

1. How incredibly young the Bakken boom is. These wells were all tested (which means they were spud not too much earlier -- 6 months or so) in 2009 or 2010.

2. How incredibly few permits, once issued, were cancelled.

3. How few -- as in almost "none" -- wells were DRY. As I said from the beginning: there are "no" dry Bakken wells.

4. The incredible difference in production among Bakken wells compared to Spearfish wells, compared to Madison wells, compared to wells from other formations.

5. They may not be dry, but are they economical. I've discussed that before also. Even low-producing wells serve a purpose, and in the "old" days any producer "held a lease by production." Not how few -- none -- of the wells are abandoned or plugged. They are all active. 

6. Many of the early wells were short laterals; now the standard is long laterals, twice as long. I don't necessarily buy into it, but some folks suggest that a horizontal well twice as long will produce twice as much oil as a horizontal half the length, all things being equal. Again, these are mostly short lateral wells. I think most of these wells, based on the operator (except for EOG) were long laterals.

7. These wells were drilled when time was of the essence, to save the leases before they expired.

8. The technology back in 2009 and 2010 was definitely much different than the technology in 2014. Regular readers know how much better the technology has become. In the beginning of the boom, we talked about one-stage fracks. Then 8 stages; then 12 stages; now up to 24, and 36, and 60 stages.

9. The decline rates are atrocious, but they are improving over time, as the technology gets better.

10. When these wells were being drilled, the companies were barely into delineating the Bakken. To some extent, these were all "wildcats," although not in the strict definition, but operators were still sorting things out.

11. I have data that goes all the way back to 2006 but that data is on Excel spreadsheets and not posted on the blog; maybe someday I will update data from the beginning of the boom, but manually it takes a long, long time.

12. I don't think it's a stretch to say that every one of these wells might have had three times the production by now had they all been long laterals (and maybe they all were long laterals; I haven't checked); and using all the new technology and better completion methods.

So, scroll through the wells at the link (1H10, above) to get a feeling of what went on back then and the total production to date.

Here are the very first wells I ever recorded at the blog as they were being reported. The names of the wells do not matter. The third column is the oil field; the fourth column is month/year when the well was tested; the fifth column was the month/year when I updated total production; the last column, in 1000's of bbls, is total production to date (fifth column).

These happen to be all Bakken wells. By this point in the Bakken boom, they were not drilling much else. But look at those cumulative production numbers (last column). 


18369 BEXP Rosebud 1/10 5/14 187
18324 BEXP Painted Woods 1/10 5/14 213
18232 Hunt Ross 1/10 4/14 337
18014 Zavanna Stony Creek 1/10 4/14 145
18082 WLL Alger 7/9 4/14 110
17996 EOG Burke 7/9 5/14 20
17972 EOG Parshall 8/9 5/14 297
17933 EOG Parshall 8/9 4/14 250
17828 EOG Parshall 8/9 4/14 132
17727 EOG Sanish 8/9 4/14 149
17984 OXY USA Simon Butte 8/9 4/14 56
18188 Slawson Van Hook 9/9 4/14 222
18153 MRO Big Bend 9/9 4/14 290
18298 Whiting Sanish 10/9 4/14 565
17080 Whiting Sanish 10/9 4/14 369
18209 Murex Sanish 11/9 4/14 443
18233 Whiting Sanish 11/9 4/14 216
17881 Tracker Little Knife 12/9 5/14 189
18214 EOG Ross 12/9 4/14 175
18301 EOG Parshall 12/9 4/14 108
18262 Hess Manitou 12/9 4/14 213
18238 Murex Sanish 12/9 5/14 377
18213 Whiting Sanish 12/9 4/14 446


I consider, right or wrong, that the wells paid for themselves when they hit 100K bbls total production.

You know, seriously, take a look at those wells. They were not cherry-picked. They were the first 23 or 24 wells that were reported at that time (some were reported by the operator and are "out of order" -- in other words, the sequence will not agree with NDIC's database).

But there is nothing cherry-picked; just as I got them and recorded them.

Look at those total production numbers. Remember, the consensus is that Bakken wells will go on producing for 39 years. The oldest well in that list (07/2009) is less than five years old.

A long, long time ago I talked about initial production (the first year or so) and the EURs. I will talk about that in a later post.

But again, these are the very first wells I ever posted as they came off the confidential list back in 2010. Now that the Bakken boom is seven years old in North Dakota, we can start looking at total production and EURs.

Over time, I will continue to post updates, the next 24, the next 24 after that, etc.

*******************************
The First 30 Permits -- 2006

Now compare the wells above with the first 30 permits in 2006. (Remember: the Bakken boom began in 2007 in North Dakota):


16054 XTO/Headington St Demetrius 10/6 5/14 32
16055 XTO/Headington Capa 9/6 5/14 246
16056 Whiting PNC Duperow


16057 Whiting
Red River 4/7 5/14 7
16058 CLR
Tyler 7/6 5/14 23
16059 Petro-Hunt Charlson 10/6 5/14 1444
16060 Whiting PNC Red River


16061 Berenergy
Madison 3/6 5/14 69
16062 Sinclair TA Red River 2/7 5/14 0.9
16063 Whiting
Birdbear 5/6 5/14 117
16064 CLR
Red River 8/10 5/14 42
16065 Onxy Oil Dry Madison


16066 Ballantyne Dry Madison


16067 Petro Harvester Madison 8/8 5/14 60
16068 Whiting Sanish 5/6 5/14 169
16069 Zenergy Dry Madison


16070 Oasis
Madison 4/6 5/14 57
16071 Armstrong
Duperow 1/6 5/14 93
16072 CLR
Midale/Nesson 3/6 5/14 85
16073 Kaiser-Francis PNC Duperow


16074 Jed Oil PNC Juno


16075 XTO
Bullsnake 6/6 5/14 62
16076 XTO
Mondak 6/6 5/14 66
16077 Slawson Loc Madison


16078 Kaiser-Francis
Duperow 5/6 5/14 28
16079 Kaiser-Francis PNC Duperow


16080 Hess
Beaver Lodge 6/6 5/14 28
16081 Whiting PNC Sanish


16082 Petro Harvester  Madison 2/6 5/14 166
16083 Hess
Capa 2/7 5/14 198

Comments:

Of the 30 wells listed above, 20 were non-Bakken wells.

Note how many non-Bakken wells were dry. There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken.

Note how poor most of  the non-Bakken wells turned out to be.

Note the Charlson Bakken well that has produced almost 1.5 million bbls of oil to date. 

*********************************
The First 30 Permits -- 2007

The North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007. These are the first 30 permits (but again, not all drilled/completed in this order):

Whiting TAO Madison 6/7 5/14 0.1
Eagle
Madison 3/7 5/14 118
CLR
Red River 6/7 5/14 82
CLR
Chimney Butte 6/7 5/14 123
CLR
Corral Creek 4/7 5/14 277
Fidelity IA Pierre 8/7
0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
CLR
Red River 4/7 5/14 84
CLR
Red River 6/1 5/14 118
Whiting Dry Red River


Panamerican Madison 4/7 5/14 28
PDC EXP Madison


OXY/Ansbro Willmen 5/7 5/14 48
OXY/Ansbro Madison 6/7 5/14 38
Hess
Red River 10/7 5/14 2
Whiting PNC Madison


Upton PNC Tyler


Upton TA Tyler

0.3
CLR
Red River 7/7 5/14 185
CLR
Red River 7/7 5/14 222
CLR IA Red River 8/7 5/14 386
Zenergy PNC Madison


BR
Blue Buttes 6/7 5/14 180
EOG
Parshall 7/7 5/14 445
CLR
Red River 6/7 5/14 318
EOG
Parshall 5/8 5/14 366
Nance Dry Madison




Comments:

1. 24 of the 30 were non-Bakken wells.
2. The Red River has some incredibly good wells, and they are much less expensive to drill.
3. EOG is starting to hit on some huge Bakken wells.

*********************************
The First 30 Permits -- 2008

 
17000 CLR
Red River 12/9 5/14 254
17001 CLR
Red River 11/8 5/14 85
17002 CLR
Red River 12/8 5/14 34
17003 Kodiak
Twin Buttes 12/9 5/14 20
17004 CLR
Red River 6/8 5/14 94
17005 EOG
Parshall 7/8 5/14 369
17006 Samson PNC Baukol N


17007 Hess
Ross 5/8 5/14 130
17008 Marathon
Sanish 8/8 5/14 40
17009 Peak
McGregory Buttes 6/8 5/14 163
17010 Hess
Ross 5/8 5/14 132
17011 EOG
Parshall 8/8 5/14 415
17012 Hunt
Parshall 6/8 5/14 286
17013 Prima IA Midale/Nesson 7/8 47
17014 Hess TA/ND Wildcat


17015 XTO IA Manitou 7/8

17016 Armstrong Dry Madison


17017 XTO
Manitou 5/8 5/14 25
17018 Brigham
Alger 6/8 5/14 92
17019 EOG
Parshall 6/9 5/14 410
17020 Hess
Hawkeye 5/8 5/14 315
17021 Tracker
Murphy Creek 6/8 5/14 128
17022 Murex
Sanish 5/8 5/14 247
17023 Whiting
Sanish 5/8 5/14 683
17024 Peak
Mandaree 5/8 5/14 155
17025 PDC PNC Madison


17026 EOG
Parshall 10/9 5/14 50
17027 EOG PNC Wildcat


17028 EOG
Parshall 10/8 5/14 499


Comments:
1. We are now well into the Bakken boom which is just beginning.
2. Even so, 7 of 30 wells were non-Bakken wells.
3. Several of the Bakken wells have done very, very well (286K, 315K, 410K, 415K, 683K).
4. These wells are about 6 years old (as of 7/14).
5. Note again: almost every early Bakken well is still active; if nothing else, even these poorly performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

*********************************
The First 30 Permits -- 2009


17946 Newfield
Fertile Valley 9/9 5/14 34
17947 Timberline Dry Madison


17948 Encore PNC Birdbear


17949 EOG
Stanley 7/9 5/14 51
17950 EOG
Alger 7/9 5/14 111
17951 EOG
Parshall 6/10 5/14 50
17952 SM Energy Siverston 6/9 5/14 149
17953 XTO/Encore Killdeer 4/10 5/14 265
17954 Hess
Manitou 7/9 5/14 84
17955 CLR PNC Wildcat


17956 Hess
Big Butte 8/9 5/14 169
17957 PDC EXP Madison


17958 PDC EXP Wildcat


17959 PDC
Lostwood 7/10 5/14 26
17960 Williston Hunter/Eagle WI Madison


17961 OXY/Anschutz Simon Butte 2/10 5/14 100
17962 Hess
Ross 6/9 5/14 126
17963 Hess
Manitou 5/9 5/14 102
17964 Whiting
Sanish 6/9 5/14 124
17965 CLR
Mary 6/10 5/14 92
17966 Marathon Reunion Bay 6/9 5/14 121
17967 Marathon Dry Murphy Creek

17968 Zenergy PNC Elidah


17969 Baytex (formerly Samson) PNC Ambrose


17970 BR TF Keene 4/9 5/14 146
17971 Marathon Murphy Creek 9/9 5/14 118
17972 EOG
Parshall 8/9 5/14 297
17973 BR IA Camel Butte 11/9 5/14 160
17974 BR TF Keene 6/9 5/14 393
17975 Zenergy
Eagle Nest 7/9 5/14 77

Comments:
1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about two years, there is no dramatic change yet.
2. Even so, 4 of 30 wells were non-Bakken wells.
3. Only a couple of the wells are interesting; it shows the tenacity of the operators to keep spending huge amounts of money to figure out the Bakken.
4. These wells are still about 6 years old (as of 7/14).
5. We now see an occasional Three Forks well; surprisingly there was a dry Bakken well.
6. Note again: almost every early Bakken well is still active; if nothing else, even these poorly performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

*********************************
The First 30 Permits -- 2010

18571 EOG
Clear Water 8/10 4/15 82
18572 Tracker PNC Little Knife


18573 XTO
Midway 7/10 4/15 115
18574 Slawson
Big Bend 12/10 4/15 172
18575 Slawson
Big Bend 6/11 4/15 298
18576 BR/Tracker Little Knife 2/11 4/15 139
18577 Hunt
Ross 8/10 4/15 253
18578 Eagle
Madison 7/10 4/15 32
18579 SM Energy Bear Den 12/10 4/15 363
18580 SM Energy Dimmick 5/10 4/15 89
18581 Newfield
East Fork 4/11 4/15 75
18582 BR Conf Corral Creek


18583 XTO EXP Corral Creek


18584 CLR
Wildcat 7/10 4/15 90
18585 EOG
Ross 10/10 4/15 69
18586 CLR
Dolphin  7/10 4/15 134
18587 BEXP
Briar Creek 7/10 4/15 169
18588 Marathon
Bailey 6/10 5/14 111
18589 Slawson
Big Bend 5/10 5/14 407
18590 Slawson IA Big Bend 8/10 5/14 236
18591 Marathon
Murphy Creek 7/10 5/14 105
18592 EOG PNC Clear Water


18593 Oasis
Cottonwood 6/12 5/14 119
18594 EOG
Squaw Creek 9/10 5/14 128
18595 Slawson
Van Hook 7/10 5/14 318
18596 EOG PNC Clear Water


18597 EOG PNC Clear Water


18598 CLR
Hamlet 4/10 5/14 97
18599 Anschutz
Crooked Creek 1/11 5/14 105
18600 Cirque EXP Dimond



Comments:
1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about three years, there is no dramatic change yet.
2. However, now operators are drilling the Bakken almost exclusively; only one of the first 30 permits in 2010 was for a non-Bakken well.
3. Like 2009, only a couple of the wells are interesting, and then just barely; it shows the tenacity of the operators to keep spending huge amounts of money to figure out the Bakken.
4. These wells are still about 5 years old (as of 7/14).
5. The operators must be watching their permitted locations more closely; several Bakken permits were canceled.
6. Note again: every drilled Bakken well is still active. If nothing else, these performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

*********************************
The First 30 Permits -- 2011


20247 Newfield PNC Fertile Valley

20248 Murex
West Bank 10/11 5/14 87
20249 Murex Madison Madison 8/11 5/14 7
20250 XTO
West Capa 3/13 5/14 127
20251 CLR/Samson Resources Kinberly 12/11 5/14 67
20252 HRC/Petro-Hunt Eagle Nest 6/12 5/14 80
20253 Petro-Hunt Eagle Nest 6/12 5/14 243
20254 EOG
Parshall 12/11 5/14 215
20255 EOG
Parshall 4/12 5/14 221
20256 CLR
Little Knife 7/11 5/14 135
20257 KOG
Mandaree 4/14 5/14 35
20258 KOG
Mandaree 4/14 5/14 39
20259 KOG
Mandaree 4/14 5/14 16
20260 EOG
Ross 1/12 5/14 295
20261 CLR
Little Knife 8/11 5/14 60
20262 Hunt
Parshall 7/11 5/14 131
20263 Newfield Fertile Valley 9/11 5/14 68
20264 Newfield PNC Bar Butte


20265 CLR
Jim Creek 9/11 5/14 78
20266 SM
Banks 3/12 5/14 82
20267 Slawson Van Hook 9/11 5/14 279
20268 Prima
Rennie Lake 11/11 5/14 44
20269 Petro-Hunt Four Bears 6/11 5/14 241
20270 Petro-Hunt Pronghorn 8/11 5/14 118
20271 QEP
DWCB 12/11 5/14 130
20272 Hess/Tracker Truax 10/11 5/14 166
20273 XTO
Heart Butte 9/12 5/14 153
20274 MRO
DWCB 11/11 5/14 191
20275 Oasis
Wildcat 7/11 5/14 186
20276 Enduro/Sequel Flat Top Butte 4/12 5/14 29

Comments:
1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about four years now, maybe, just maybe we are starting to see a trend: consistently good wells, in the 150K - 200K range after three to four years of production. .
2. Operators are drilling the Bakken almost exclusively; one one of the first 30 permits in 2011 was for a non-Bakken well.
3. Be very careful in looking at the total production; this is the first year in which there is a wide disparity when the wells were completed/tested. Two of the wells were completed just a month ago (4/14).
5. DWCB: Deep Water Creek Bay.
6. Note again: every drilled Bakken well is still active. If nothing else, these performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

Wells with permits issued in 2012 are too new to be added to this group yet.

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