Bakken 5.5: January 22, 2023; moving to longer laterals; three-mile laterals; operators moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3.
Previous Posts
82a. What do you mean by Bakken 2.0? See this post. Important data points:
- June, 2007: the very early days of the Bakken boom; began in Montana, 2000; Bakken 1.0
- October 19, 2016: the beginning of Bakken 2.0
- the event that triggered the Bakken 2.0 designation: the SM Energy announcement that it was selling some Bakken acreage/assets to Oasis
- it appears Permian Shale 2.0 began with the WPX, Noble, and XOM announcements regarding acquisitions in the Permian -- late 2016/early 2017
- Bakken 1.0: began in the summer of 2007; it was originally tagged "Bakken101" and I continue to use the "Bakken101" tag
- Bakken 2.0: October 19, 2016
- Bakken 2.5: April 10, 2018 -- correlates/corresponds with CLR's new completion strategies; North Dakota crude oil production to set new records; increased focus on the Permian vs the Bakken
- Bakken 3.0: We go to Bakken 3.0 if the "Lynn Helms' production surge (LHPS - 2018) is sustained for six months. Link here.
82c. Bakken 3.0 -- see above. The surge noted in 2018 certainly lasted for six months.
82d. Bakken 4.0 -- oil shock - market meltdown, 2020. Tag: "Meltdown_2020." And, of course, "Bakken_4.0. "New" and very common well designations started appearing just as we went to Bakken 4.0: SI/A; F/A; F/NC. Link here for examples. SI/A
are wells that have been completed, have come off the confidential
list, but are immediately shut in, sometimes with no production or very
minimal production (less than 500 bbls) but often 15 days of great
production, such as 17K bbls crude oil over 14 days. I didn't know
whether to highlight them in "red" or "blue,"
but because they came off confidential list "on time," had been
completed and had production following a frack, I highlighted them in "red." F/A; F/NC were wells that producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed. It appears that in Bakken 4.0 we will have wells that come off the confidential list, or the SI/NC list, but are immediately shut in or choked back significantly. See this post, dated March 26, 2020, first time I tagged a post with "Bakken_4.0."
On December 30, 2021, I wrote:
We're currently in "Bakken 4.0." It's very possible we move to Bakken 5.0 if the following four "things" converge as expected:
- the Biden administration/environmentalists significantly impact the "US shale revolution" (which I think they will);
- the relative stability in the Mideast seen in the past four years changes for the worse (which I think it will);
- global demand for oil increases more quickly than anticipated (not sure about this); and,
- price of oil trends higher (WTI trends toward $60) (not sure about this).
It's tempting to move us to Bakken 5.0 as of January 21, 2021, the day the country's new CEO/CIC banned new leasing on federal land. But the ban is temporary, and we have not yet seen how the rest of the criteria play out. I'm not sure if I should include global geopolitical events as part of the definition, but we'll see.
For now, we remain in Bakken 4.0.
82e. Bakken 4.5 -- rolling out Bakken 4.5. December 12, 2021.
82f. Bakken 5.0 -- Bakken has reached maturity, May 24, 2022.
Bakken 101: across all "eras."
Unconventional 1.0; 2.0; and, 3.0 -- WoodMac
