Monday, December 13, 2021

A Closer Look At The Two New Rimrock Permits -- December 13, 2021

Two new permits, #38697 - #38698, inclusive:

  • Operator: Rimrock Oil & Gas
  • Field: Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • Rimrock has permits for two MC 14-11 permits, a Polar Bear and a Narwhal; 
    • the wells will be sited in SWSE 11-147-93; 
    • between 971 FSL and 1000 FSL and between 1639 FWL and 1644 FWL



The wells: 

  • 32856, 2,941, Rimrock, MC MHA 14-11-2TFH, Moccasin Creek, t9/18; cum 422K 10/21; 
  • 32855, 1,633, Rimrock, MC MHA 14-11H, Moccasin Creek, t9/18; cum 262K 10/21; 
  • 33035, 690, Rimrock, MC MHA 14-11-3TFH, Moccasin Creek, t9/18; cum 158K 10/21; 
  • 33034, 1,605, Rimrock, MC MHA 14-2H, Moccasin Creek, t9/18; cum 289K 10/21; 
  • 32854, 1,633, Rimrock, MC MHA 14-11TFH, Moccasin Creek, t9/18; cum 426K 10/21;


  • 24057, AB/1,570, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11-2-3H3, Moccasin Creek, t2/13; cum 198K 2/20; 
  • 24058, PNC, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11-2-4H3, Moccasin Creek,
  • 24056, 2,271, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11-2-3H, Moccasin Creek, t1/13; cum 387K 10/21;
  • 38182, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 4H, Moccasin Creek, 
  • 38183, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 5TFH, Moccasin Creek, 
  • 38184, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 6H, Moccasin Creek,
  • 18295, 1,260, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 16-3-11H, Moccasin Creek, t2/10; cum 510K 10/21;

Average Production Per US Oil Rig Has Soared 81% Since 2019 -- December 13, 2021

A couple of points before we get started:

  • although the headline, perhaps implies that it's all about the drilling or the rig, when in fact, it's really about the completion strategies and the effectiveness of the frack spreads -- the guys and gals doing the fracking;
  • it's easy to skip over the "81%" figure but 81% is closer to 100% (or doubling of production) than 50%. 

Think about that, one can almost say that the average production per US oil rig has almost doubled over the past two years.

Parsing that sentence:

  • per rig
  • almost doubled
  • in the past two years.

Staggering. 

Another point: by name, only two shale plays are mentioned in this article. 

I've been seeing this day in and day out when I update initial production data for wells drilled in 2020, maybe 2019. Initial production, the first ninety days, is the important period when comparing shale wells; after that, the operator is managing his/her wells and production is related less to technology and strategies and more to the operator "managing" the well's production.

One last point: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Talk about a huge coincidence. It's almost as if someone is reading the blog. LOL.

Link here for a recent blog post with comments. 

The December, 2021, dashboards have been posted:

EIA dashboards:

Now this, link to Julianne Geiger: average production per US oil rig has soared 81% since 2019. 

New-well oil production per rig has gained some serious ground over the last three years, increasing nearly 85% since the start of 2019, EIA data compiled by Oilprice shows.

According to the EIA’s most recent Drilling Productivity Report published on Monday, new-well oil production per rig rose to 1,142 barrels per day in December, and is expected to stay close to that figure in January, at 1,140.

While the monthly gains have been modest since the beginning of 2019—at an average gain of just 14 barrels per rig per day, it has catapulted the average production per rig per day to 1,140. This is up from 628 at the beginning of 2019—for a gain of 81%.

And:

Oil production in the most prolific shale play in the United States—the Permian—is expected to increase 71,000 bpd in January to 5.031 million bpd—up from 4.960 million bpd in December.

The second most prolific basin, the Bakken, is expected to increase 8,000 bpd to reach 1.154 million bpd in January. Both the Bakken and the Permian are expected to decrease in the new-well production per rig for the month of January, with the Bakken expected to fall by 42 barrels per rig per day, and the Permian by 4 barrels per rig per day.

***********************************
Shut Down

Shut Down, The Beach Boys

Wow, I'm Gone For One Day And Social Media Explodes -- December 13, 2021

Reality sucks: the Bakken revolution (fracking) -- the leading technological innovation that drove reduced CO2 emissions over the last decade, not renewables

  • Montana Bakken: began in 2000
  • North Dakota Bakken: began in 2007

Reality sucks:

  • in Europe right now, it costs 2 - 3x more to charge an EV than it is to power an ICE
  • well, you know what I mean

There you go, Pocohontas and Bernie: 

  • Brandon won't extend student loan relief; student load payments to restart February 1, 2022 -- source, Forbes -- plenty of jobs available to help pay off student loans
  • 2022 is an election year, is it not?

Asking for a friend: is GasBuddyGuy being sarcastic, or living in a parallel universe? He tweets today:

  • the national average is now $3.323 / gallon and falling -- should be under $3.30 / gallon in the next 72 hours 

I'm tired of the whining: I'm talking about all the folks going nuts over Omicron

  • Alec Baldwin has killed more people that Omicron
  • California: governor reinstates statewide mask mandate (remember: the state had an opportunity to recall him -- he's now bullet-proof)

Bitcoin: from "Walter Bloomberg": "Boe's Bailey says crypto investors may lose all their investment. Link here. Some social comments:

  • it's always surprising when people who benefit most from the legacy banking system warn of the risks involved with bitcoin. Shocking even.
  • it's almost like, it's a pyramid scheme?
  • I had not idea crypto was volatile
  • meanwhile in Turkey
  • instead, let the government take all your money through inflation

Net-zero:

  • if the entire EU went net-zero today and stayed net-zero for the rest of the century, the impact would be a rise in global temperature by 0.14°C -- Bjorn Lomborg

US dry natural gas production: to reach 97.5 billion cubic feet per day by December, 2022, one year from now

  • would be the highest US monthly production on record
  • source: EIA;

Los Angeles: from an out-of-town visitor:

  • dinner where pasta entrees were $70 - $90
  • sushi rolls for $22
  • avocado toast for $18.50, and, of course,
  • gasoline: $5.25 / gallon

Tankers:

  • if the pandemic ends and oil supply can keep up with demand, tankers will do well in 2022
  • if the pandemic ends and oil supply cannot keep up with demand, tankers will be at least 10x in 2024

Rimrock With Two New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed, Including EOG With Five; and One Permit Canceled -- December 13, 2021

 Active rigs: NDIC's active rig list shows 32 active rigs. I did not check to see if any "duplicates."

$71.02
12/13/202112/13/202012/13/201912/13/201812/13/2017
Active Rigs32
15536751

Two new permits, #38697 - #38698, inclusive:

  • Operator: Rimrock Oil & Gas
  • Field: Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • Rimrock has permits for two MC 14-11 permits, a Polar Bear and a Narwhal; 
    • the wells will be sited in SWSE 11-147-93; 
    • between 971 FSL and 1000 FSL and between 1639 FWL and 1644 FWL

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • Hunt Oil (6): two Oakland permits; two Trulson permits; and, two Palermo McNic permits;, all in Mountrail County:
  • CLR (5): one Chicago permit; two Charlotte permits, one Akron permits, and, one Brangus FIU permit, all in McKenzie County;
  • EOG (5): five Round Prairie permits, all in Williams County;

One permit canceled:

  • 37491, CLR, Gibb 11-24HSL, Williams County

Non-Bakken Ramblings -- December 13, 2021

Dividends: I've lost the bubble on this. I can't remember if I've already posted this. PFE, TRN, and UNP have announced an increase in their dividends. Link here.

  • PFE: increased to 40 cents from previous 39 cents. Record date, 1/28/22; pay date 3/4/22.
    • PFE up 5.16%; up $2.73; trading at $55.52
  • TRN: increased to 23 cents from previous 21 cents. Record date 1/14/22; pay date1/31/22.
    • TRN down slightly today
  • UNP: increased to $1.18 from previous $1.07; this is earlier than expected; see below;
    • prepandemic, 88 cents/share; now $1.18/share --> 34% increase over ten quarters (?)
    • record date, 12/17/21; pay date 12/20/21 -- wow -- next Monday.
    • if UNP is a proxy for BNI, Warren Buffett must be happy today

Staggering: I simply find this number staggering. Link sent by reader, thank you.

  • corporate relocations have delivered more than $235 billion in market valuation to north Texas
  • this is corporate relocations; doesn't even begin to include all the new non-relocation activities
  • these are corporate relocations, not necessarily corporate headquarters locations
  • writer noted that DFW already had such big players like Exxon and Texas Instuments
  • added McKesson and Charles Schwab