Sunday, December 12, 2021

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 12, 2021

Monday, December 20, 2021: 75 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
None.

Sunday, December 19, 2021: 75 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
38185, conf,  CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H,
37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU,

Saturday, December 18, 2021: 73 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 328 for the year:
36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL,

Friday, December 17, 2021: 72 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 327 for the year:
38186, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU k6-21H,
36771, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-9,

Thursday, December 16, 2021: 70 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 325 for the year:
36303, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-13T-LL,

Wednesday, December 15, 2021: 69 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 324 for the year:
38187, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 5-21H,

Tuesday, December 14, 2021: 68 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 323 for the year:
None.

Monday, December 13, 2021: 68 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 323 for the year:
38188, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 4-21HSL,
37352, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 44-34 12TX,
36862, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7-2H,
36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B,

Sunday, December 12, 2021: 64 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 319 for the year:
37416, conf,  Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 5B,
37381, conf,  Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 4B,
37030, conf, Whiting, KR State 13-16HU,
36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T,

Saturday, December 11, 2021: 60 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 314 for the year:
None.

Friday, December 10, 2021: 60 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 314 for the year:
36306, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B,
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Notes From All Over -- December 12, 2021

More QE? Brandon, just like Donald Trump, will force Jay Powell's hand. This is absolutely fascinating. Josh Young, who initiated the tweet, is, in my mind, as credible as Tyler Durden: in other words, whether you like him or not, whether he is credible or not (think Rush Limbaugh) you have to listen to him. I think 2022 is going to be absolutely fascinating for investors, and if Josh Young is correct, it's only going to get better for investors, which seems hard to believe -- that it could get any better. The Feds are flush with cash, pulling in record amounts of revenue ("taxes") and although the debt / deficit are worsening, the debt limit was raised with nary an op-ed, and .... it's the mid-terms! But spend some time on the linked tweet and the comments it generated. Maybe one for the archives. 

EVs: tracked here / here and this morning's updates here. The latter link will take you to two of the most exciting EV developments in the past two or three days, as reported by The WSJ: Daimler Truck and a review of the Rivian R1T. From Investor's Business Daily, top five EV manufacturers, and all the rest.

Next up, the Permian: thoughts on crude oil. Again, same rabbit hole. This morning's update here. Sheffield concerned about the high price of oil; and, TTE as an investment?

Graphs: the most interesting graphic so far today. I just wish more dots would have been labeled. From The WSJ. Pay particular attention to the quadrant in which Berkshire Hathaway sits -- that corroborates my thinking regarding Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger for the past five years. Their investment strategy: buying back shares in their own company because they can't find other companies they consider more valuable then their own. Talk about falling in love with a stock. Be careful with this graph: sector III is the worst sector in which to be sitting. The best sector? Sector I. At least I think I have that right.


Covid-19:

  • record number of vaccinations being given in the US; rate of increase quite astounding, considering;
  • link here.
  • omicron: a dud? what's next?
  • the big vaccine pivot: this is an incredible story from The WSJ and provides, again, another example of how investors can do well -- or at least make rational (and I use the word loosely) decisions
    • Merck faltered coming up with its own vaccine;
    • how to respond: partner with Pfizer to make Pfizer's vaccine: wow
  • do vaccines and lock downs help? Austria thinks so. From The WSJ: "Covid-19 measures and a looming general vaccine mandate are persuading more to take the shot as Omicron spread. Time to flatten the curve, apparently, but look how long it's taking to get started:

Austria, one of the worst-hit countries in Europe’s latest Covid-19 surge, has seen infections plummet and vaccination rates soar after imposing a lockdown and saying it would make the shots mandatory next year.

The measures, and the steep fall in new cases since they were announced, could offer some options to countries in a region where infections are still rising rapidly or plateauing at a high level.

The Alpine republic introduced a lockdown and said it would mandate vaccines beginning next February, 2022, on November 22, 2021, when the weekly rolling average of daily new cases exceeded 1,500 and hospitals in areas with low vaccination rates were struggling to cope with the influx of patients.

  • From what I've read, the issue is not deaths, it's hospitalizations. If accurate, it's all about "flattening the curve." But look at that, something I missed earlier: the "mandate" was announced in November, but won't begin until next February. Probably a combination of politics, logistics, and availability of vaccine.

NFL today: I wanted to put this at the top, but the Josh Young tweet was way too important to get buried. so the "NFL Today" will have to go down here. Dallas vs the Washington Team at noon! Wow, some other great match-ups today, also.

********************************
Olivia and Soccer

FC Dallas, for whom Olivia plays, finished first in their bracket at "regionals" / "quarter-finals" / "semi-finals" in Orlando, Florida, this weekend. They just completed their third and last game. They won their first two games; I was never told how they did in the third game because it doesn't matter. We don't even know who they played! But by finishing first in their bracket, if they "do well" in the second half of this tournament to be held in Arizona in March, 2022, they go to the National tournament in June / July time frame. 

This is an interesting phenomenon. It is simply not about winning / losing games. Points are given for wins and ties; for number of goals scored; number of goals the opponent scores, etc. And at the end of the day, although the teams want to win (for obvious reasons) and especially for the coach whose reputation rests with wins/losses, these are "showcase" games for the players. College and professional scouts are looking for recruits. 

This is where it starts getting serious: tenth grade, high school sophomores. College scouts were out watching recruits as early as middle school, but now, next year, their junior year, the players will start getting "offers."  Offers include full scholarships at Ivy League schools and west coast schools like Stanford.

Olivia says she will not play soccer in college; it's all about academics. But, once it sinks in that NCAA athletes are allowed to "cash in" and still maintain amateur status, she may re-think. LOL. 

s/A bragging grandfather.

**********************************
Corky

By the way, Corky is back from vacation and joined us for sushi last night.

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Saturday, December 11, 2021

An Incredible Bruin Fort Berthold Well -- Drilled Just Over Three Years Ago,Trending Toward 800K Bbls Crude Oil -- December 11, 2021

The well:

  • 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 292K 9/18; cum 765K 10/21;

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-20212849335182476218758109951775
SANISH9-20213073557091564718786111921699
SANISH8-20211443884967252592925830317
SANISH7-202131105061023566522330215095979
SANISH6-2021308950899554941827711270957
SANISH5-202131101209799630017567102381544
SANISH4-202122529449264382102795688940
SANISH3-20211117302204153058903907500
SANISH2-20212884478648573520120114461736
SANISH1-20213169066513712025265142632360
SANISH12-20203173327447634621728131402198
SANISH11-2020307700777150191316879761479
SANISH10-2020196846608457651365086041191
SANISH9-20200000000
SANISH8-20200000000
SANISH7-2020004000000
SANISH6-20202574208666731821350151363406
SANISH5-20201768166908589924260716911808
SANISH4-2020301084499091007552824428691047
SANISH3-2020311060110465829453531378825496
SANISH2-2020291142811522781942925307955139
SANISH1-20202093418649578018137119102672
SANISH12-20192887699367738324436115428014
SANISH11-2019301166211598871436813648624612
SANISH10-2019311409913561889739556319601941
SANISH9-2019301560915638969743255326315859
SANISH8-201931181161812713274509363157514284
SANISH7-201931220252214814986415942347513814
SANISH6-2019191264012693854525159576215748
SANISH5-2019272108020966143204198264035247
SANISH4-201930243952436615743486051391626329
SANISH3-201931318923202918084732304441019011
SANISH2-20192828425283812043753934398336426
SANISH1-201931350233497722366625964017512596
SANISH12-201824241102440516587514312843518516
SANISH11-20182214137142131292422550967610733
SANISH10-201831436914382230933650252755932588
SANISH9-20183052975530445615060629460675677
SANISH8-201831725167240863718906714548039524
SANISH7-201831638006364674543906084289342889
SANISH6-201830953159595967134672113723225562
SANISH5-20181577996657261691392175723178
SANISH4-20180000000
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So Much Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- December 11, 2021

*************************************
Focus On Coleen Gray

1960: lead guest actor in Perry Mason, "The Wandering Widow." 

From the golden age of Hollywood. 

Wiki entry here.

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That Dreaded Bakken Decline -- December 11, 2021

The well:

  • 32274, 2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2SLH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 26K after 21 days; cum 165K 10/20; TD = 27,332 feet; 94 stages; 16.4 million lbs; cum 377K 10/21;

Full production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20212926095261372139122702941813141
BAKKEN9-20212928228278072550624657614318369
BAKKEN8-20213130527311503008826866730219410
BAKKEN7-20212933595335463287529531952419862
BAKKEN6-2021231794617345222031538358909377
BAKKEN5-2021312024120809301531763293258152
BAKKEN4-20213019855198683408617036533511551
BAKKEN3-20212422663230142786119664134118203
BAKKEN2-2021131237911011118331065436910220
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-2020156701308
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20201018815520871978364
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20201200017012
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202015100431621
BAKKEN4-2020110281443308
BAKKEN3-2020151303413335144501127720049200
BAKKEN2-202029338093437035236290011175017106
BAKKEN1-2020109339910512698800830583899
BAKKEN12-2019302279622195322721587136675322
BAKKEN11-2019281316713915236981158160004036
BAKKEN10-2019311891818551316331654658658490
BAKKEN9-201917152481489428111320560910860
BAKKEN8-2019168822938317092765206615
BAKKEN7-20199426238618240397114272035
BAKKEN6-20192125592249428724222504019587
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