Sunday, October 17, 2021

A Zavanna Nelson Well In Long Creek Will Go Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative Before The End Of The Year -- October 17, 2021

 This page won't be updated. This well is followed elsewhere.

This well will go over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative by the end of the year.

  • 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, 35 stages; 3.8 million lbs; t8/12; cum 471K 1/20; off-line many months; see much more about this well as this post; back on line, doing very well; cum 494K 8/21; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20213115961608284929144286820
BAKKEN7-202131159812453356298742938032
BAKKEN6-2021301799174228912863727815375
BAKKEN5-202131119412042992285872808837
BAKKEN4-2021301084107736682717526551177
BAKKEN3-20213119141844358229189287261
BAKKEN2-20212819221862325426263258460
BAKKEN1-20213119571888301427852273900
BAKKEN12-20203123072199400529001285372
BAKKEN11-20202926792654428027220267862

Oasis Nikolai Federal Wells Starting To Report Production -- October 17, 2021

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere.  

The wells still being reported as confidential but now have production:

The NDIC is beginning to report production from several wells on this pad. 

  • 35486, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolaw Federal 5397 42-33 2B, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 28K 6/21;
  • 35485, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, A. Johnson/Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 3T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 8/21;
  • 35483, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 5T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 7/21;
  • 35482, PNC, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 6B, Banks,
  • 35481, PNC, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 7T, Banks,
  • 35730, 276, Oasis, A. Johnson/Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 6T, Banks, first production 6/20; t6/20; cum 90K 1/21; a 24K month; cum 119K 8/21;
  • 35729, 670, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 42-33 7B, Banks, first production, 6/20; t6/20; cum190K 1/21; cum 236K 8/21;

The wells still being reported as confidential but now have production:

  • 35486, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 2B, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 28K 6/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212413580743
7-20212701282939
6-20212761679445
5-20211195443355
  • 35485, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, A. Johnson/Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 3T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 8/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212969995650
7-20212949081709
6-20212848472672
5-20211366231727
  • 35483, drl/NC-->conf (4/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 5T, Banks, starting to produce, as of 5/21; high month, 30K 7/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212748986538
7-20213011180772
6-20212639167770
5-202127227412

Yes, The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- The Oasis Wold Federal Well -- October 17, 2021

We start with the Oasis Wold Federal well here. At that link, note the very small production for that well as of July, 2020, only about 800 bbls / month.

These wells are now tracked here. 

Note the huge jump in production of the Oasis Wold Federal well, #20266, at this post, where that well and the neighboring wells are tracked.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202114151118071839163275518384
BAKKEN7-20211631543067766488278316287
BAKKEN6-2021305474513319015440629661140
BAKKEN5-202113120094258003185296699
BAKKEN4-2021004790000
BAKKEN3-202131933718730286025473
BAKKEN2-202125622495350246022073
BAKKEN1-202131738733440280324912
BAKKEN12-202031744942460284125256
BAKKEN11-202030786700520277524732
BAKKEN10-2020316567123102656227868
BAKKEN9-202030732481560290826044
BAKKEN8-2020318059406403057272730
BAKKEN7-20203182111706703117279611

Note the jump in production from 800 bbls / month to 5,500 bbls / month. 

So, now we will go back and update the wells at the first link above.

DRUbit Or Dilbit -- DRUbit-By-Rail -- DBR -- Game-Changer -- October 17, 2021

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.  

A reader alerted me to the story. Thank you.

Elections have consequences: this would not be a story had Resident Biden not canceled the Keystone XL. But here we go again. Assuming Biden's regulators don't stop the merger, and assuming the merger goes through, there will be a "new pipeline" running from western Canada to the US gulf coast.

The "new pipeline" will be above ground and run on two rails.

DBR, not CBR.

From The Star Tribune via Yahoo!Finance:

  • the "new pipeline": Canadian Pacific - Kansas City Southern (one of many links here)
  • new venture: USD Partners -- processes heavy oil with diluent and then loads it on rail tank cars;
  • the "pipeline" bisects the Twin Cities
    • could add as many as 15 to 20 oil trains through Minnesota each month
    • would begin as early as 3Q21
    • destination: Port Arthur, TX
  • I don't know where this stands with regard to approval by US regulators, but it seems it would be difficult to halt the deal when Resident Biden said his administration is looking for additional ways to move "energy" around the nation -- LOL -- in addition:
    • while remaining the smallest of six U.S. Class 1 railroads by revenue, the combined company will be a much larger and more competitive network, operating approximately 20,000 miles of rail, employing close to 20,000 people and generating total revenues of approximately $8.7 billion based on 2020 actual revenues. 
    • so we'll see
  • CP is already the largest rail shipper of oil in the state
  • volume varies considerably: anywhere from five to nineteen "hazardous" trains per month
  • but get this:The new oil trains running from USD's terminal aren't likely to be tallied in those state counts. USD said the oil is not hazardous cargo as defined under U.S. and Canadian transportation regulations.
  • folks can correct me but this is my understanding:
    • Houston-based USD Partners will process / load the diluent-bitumen at their facilities in Hardisty, east-central Alberta, Canada unto the CP-KCS railroad
    • the diluent - bitumen slurry is abbreviated to "dilbit" but DB Partners refers to this as DRUbit-by-rail (DBR) 
    • the DRU facility in Hardisty is, apparently near completion, if not already completed

Folks will argue about this for quite some time, but one wonders whether DBR through the Twin Cities would even be an issue if the Keystone XL had not been canceled and had other pipelines not been delayed, deferred, or canceled (see Liberty Pipeline).

Let's Go Brandon! October 17, 2021

 


So, "Batman, riddle me this. If there's a five-million-bopd overhang" (Harold Hamm) and we now have fifteen to twenty more unit trains each month carrying oil from western Canada to Texas starting by the end of the year (see this note), why is crude oil continuing to increase in price? -- The Riddler.

October 17, 2021, 8:23 p.m. CT: WTI trading at $83.41. Remember: Jim Cramer called the top at $81 - $82 about a week ago. Later, $83.57 at 10:00 p.m. CT.

So, far Jim Cramer is wrong on the trend -- WTI is going the wrong way. However, one can argue $83 is is same trading "range" as $81 - $82. So, we'll see.