Monday, September 27, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Part 5 -- The Surging Price Of Oil -- September 27, 2021

$76.12. After the close, WTI traded up almost another one percent, almost another 70 cents. This evening, WTI is trading at over $76. 

Price of WTI: I posted Cathie Wood's tweet when she first tweeted it. The tweet being re-tweeted at this link. What a doofus. I said so at the time. I can't remember my exact words, but surely my sentiments. Here's the post, back on June 4, 2021.

I remember Jim Cramer also suggesting the price of oil had peaked. It's interesting. I suggested in a post that the price of oil can take wild swings.  I posted a screenshot of the historical price of oil to prove my point. I've long forgotten but I think I thought there was a chance that the price of WTI could surge. Whatever.

But what in the world drove WTI from $50 to $75 in such a short time this time around?

Notes From All Over -- The Ford EV Edition -- Part 4 -- September 27, 2021

Tennessee, Kentucky: EV valley? See below. Right-to-work states? Lower taxes? Nicer weather?

Roth IRA: Yahoo!Finance. Spousal Roth IRA. 

So what is it? String instruments or stringed instruments? And then we also have chordophones.

Ford: to build $11.4 billion mega campuses for EVs. Also, WSJ.

  • Ford's portion: $7 billion
    • partner: SK Innovation (South Korean)
    • 11,000 new jobs
  • Kentucky, Tennessee; not Detroit
  • Tennessee: battery factory alongside a new truck factory
    • Blue Oval City 
    • the truck site
    • 6,000 jobs
    • to begin producing electric F-series pickups by 2025
  • Kentucky: two battery factories
    • BlueOvalSk Battery Park
    • the battery site 
    • 5,000 jobs
    • opening date: 2025
  • largest manufacturing investment in the company's 118-year-old history
  • few new automobile plants have been opened in the US in the last few decades
  • Volvo: South Carolina
  • Detroit: Jeep

Ford, statistics from Yahoo!Finance, numbers rounded:

  • mega-EV project: $7 billion
  • market cap: $50 billion
  • enterprise value: $160 billion
  • revenue (ttm): $140 billion
  • gross profit (ttm): $6 billion
  • total cash: $25 billion
  • total debt: $150 billion

Comments: many numbers rounded; back-of-envelope figures

  • all this talk about auto manufacturers with supply chain problems? Ford is looking past them
  • $7 billion / $150 billion or $7 billion / $160 billion = 4 to 6 percent spread out over several years
  • $7 billion / $140 billion = 5 percent spread out over several years no dividend since January, 2020; had been 15 cents = 60 cents/share annually
  • outstanding shares: 4 billion shares * 60 cents = $2.4 billion / year
  • $7 billion / $2.4 billion = three years
  • 12,000 employees x $60K / year = $1 billion / year

Disclaimer: I know absolutely nothing about these kinds of things. This is simply my own figuring. If this is important to you, go to the source, and your get your own used envelope.

Others:

  • GM: Nashville, a $2.3 billion battery factory to support a nearby assembly plant which itself is getting a $2 billion makeover to make EVs
  • Volkswagen AG: Chattanooga, $800 million to expand its EV production

Covid-19:

  • Harvard University / MBA business school
  • smartest guys on earth
  • but, in addition, access to smartest epidemiologists and virologists in the world
  • MBA students: 100% vaccinated
  • apparently some type of Covid outbreak on the Harvard School of Business campus (separate from the main Harvard campus)
  • whatever the outbreak was, Harvard School of Business elected to move all MBA classes online:
  • does Harvard know something the CDC doesn't -- like, perhaps the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Random Update Of An Enerplus "Stringed Instrument" Well -- September 27, 2021

This post won't be updated. 

Updates

October 24, 2021: new production data available -- 

  • 37029, conf, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, McKenzie County, Mandaree, incredibly good well; scout ticket not updated; first production, 3/21; t--; cum 227K 8/21 (less than six months)
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    8-20212714331994
    7-20214093447735
    6-20215091058674
    5-20215326858213
    4-20214284331028
    3-20211710411787

Original Post 

The "string instrument" pad is tracked here. In addition, early production is reported here.

The well came off confidential list today:

  • 37029, conf, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, McKenzie County, Mandaree, incredibly good well; scout ticket not updated;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20214093447735
6-20215091058674
5-20215326858213
4-20214284331028
3-20211710411787

Over 200,000 bbls crude oil sold in less than five months.

Bbls oil sold

Gas MCF sold

40,934

47735

50,910

58674

53,268

58213

42,843

31028

17,104

11787

205,059

207,437

First Day Of The Last Week Of The Third Quarter -- September 27, 2021

The Fed: Jay Powell says the labor market continues to improve. This includes the two new jobs that just opened up at the fed. [For the archives: two Fed governors resign over personal investing practices.]

Apple, Tesla: have suspended some production in China. Everything is being impacted; not limited to technology. Think NIKE. Not good. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

SRE: takes a $1.1 billion charge related to Aliso Canyon. 

Natural gas: prices in Europe hit an all-time high. Both UK NBP and Dutch TFF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at their highest-ever settlement, up eleven percent on the day, to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu. 

$75: to put things in perspective, a lot of energy stocks have only returned to pre-Covid. The market is not valuing these stocks at $65 / bbl WTI let alone $75. -- HFI Research. 

One reader will like this, from twitter: PBT started drilling in March, 2020, right when everything shut down. My favorite stock, a royalty trust, that's spending $86 million to create 91 new wells and 24 recompletions budgeted for 2021 on top of 1400 wells. Cash distribution in 1Q22 is gonna be wild after suppressed due to spend. -- a social media comment from the linked thread above.

******************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, best guess*: NDIC is no longer reporting active rigs --

$75.42
9/27/202109/27/202009/27/201909/27/201809/27/2017
Active Rigs26*11576557

Three new permits, #38584 - #38586, inclusive:

  • Operator: Rimrock Oil & Gas
  • Field: Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Rimrock has permits for three more wells to be sited in SWSE 33-148-93; 
    • between 691 FSL and 706 FSL and between 2531 FEL and 2484 FEL;

Four wells released from confidential list:

  • 37245, conf, MRO, Armstrong 14-34H, Dunn County, Bailey, no data provided; scout ticket not updated;
  • 38181, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-2B-11-1HS, Billings County, Little Knife; early, minimal production, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37028, conf, Enerplus, Mandolin 149-94-02C-01H, McKenzie County, Mandaree, early, nice production, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37029, conf, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, McKenzie County, Mandaree, incredibly good well; scout ticket not updated;

Notes From All Over -- Part 3 -- September 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Goldman Sachs: their advice. Make a lot of money.

Hess: massive underinvestment in new production is a major wildcard for oil. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. Let's look at some energy companies:

  • HES: up 5%; up $3.70; trading at $79; pays 1.33%;
  • CLR: up 7%; up $3.06; trading at $47.28; pays 1.35%;
  • DVN: up 6%; up $1.90; trading at $35; pays1.33%;
  • EOG: up 5%; up $3.76; trading at $81.85; pays 2.11%;
  • CVX: up 2.4%; up $2.40; trading at $103; pays 5.33% -- whoo-hoo!
  • EPD: up 2%; up 45 cents; trading at $21.90; pays 8.4%;

Russia: wow, wow, wow. Exactly what I said earlier today or yesterday.

US: Covid-19 is so behind us.

  • from twitter: according to Pay with GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand last week (Sunday through Saturday) rose 1.1%, ending the five-week streak of falling demand. Weekly demand was the highest since the week of 8/29
  • I mentioned yesterday, on my bike ride, I had never seen such heavy automobile and pick-up traffic as OI saw yesterday;
  • and if there is any question of whether Covid-19 is behind us, one is not tuning into Saturday college football and Sunday NFL; stadiums of 100s of thousands of unmasked folks; drinking beer, yelling, coughing; 

Another pipeline killed:

  • from twitter: PennEast pipeline axed ... good job greenies .. have fun paying sky-high energy prices and freezing your butts off this winter ... and winters to follow ...
  • the burggraben widens: $500 million+ went into the development of this project ... to date ..