Sunday, December 8, 2019

Sunday Night Notes, Part 1 -- December 8, 2019

WTI: trending toward $60. Could we see $60 by the end of the week? At one time oil bulls would have been thrilled with $60-oil, but things are so bad for so many operators, it seems there is little excitement with the current price of oil. 

China-US trade: date to watch -- December 15, 2019.

Impeachment: date to watch -- Friday the 13th -- December 13, 2019. Body language and public statements by US House democrats suggest not all is yet sorted out. This is a big deal: taking out a duly-elected president with flimsy material. So, we'll watch. The daily presidential tracking poll should be interesting. Link here. Currently President Trump is polling the highest he has polled pretty much through his entire presidency. I'm sure Nance Pelosi is aware of the polling and discussing it with Jerry Nadler.


Dow futures: Sunday night futures don't mean squat ... but, having said that, Dow futures tonight are up a bit.
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Bakken Oil -- The "Gold Standard" -- IMO 2020? -- December 8, 2019

In response to my rambling note / idle chatter on GDP, a reader posited:
There might be a fairly strong - and growing - market for American light sweet crude from the shale plays.

I have been following the developments in the marine fuel situation as this market consumes ~4 to 4 1/2 millions of barrels per day (of the 100 million daily global consumption.

It seems that there has been a frantic effort amongst refiners for this market to produce a compliant (<.5% sulphur) fuel that will not 'gum up the engines' of their customers's ships.

 Not the easiest of tasks.

Turns out, US shale-sourced oil is the best supply to be lightly refined and then blended with other components to create the most economical, usable fuel.

The Chinese, Korean, and Singaporean refineries are now running with this.

There has been a delay in removing the crucial tender barges from service for the 1 week period of cleaning their holds (in preparation for transporting the new fuel) but that seems to be being addressed right now as a solution for an economic, globally available supply has now been found ... US LTO blended VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil).
*************************************** 
The Art Page

Sophia, age 5.5 years of age:


We'll probably "cut out" the section with the two birds, frame it, and hang it.
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Random Update Of A CLR Carson Peak Well With Huge Jump In Production That Has Held -- December 8, 2019

The well:
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, Oakdale, Bakken, t5/11 cum 803K 5/20; huge jump in production, 4/19;

Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202031533058702441532149180
BAKKEN4-20202846184513214540933589140
BAKKEN3-202031624262222964571253040
BAKKEN2-20202655565072311848404304203
BAKKEN1-2020880310224038587850
BAKKEN12-201931823083113950806076530
BAKKEN11-20193094849611458894068899115


Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201931110391121358321122910151667
BAKKEN9-201930116611164967911282812109321
BAKKEN8-20193113212129708398143801391161
BAKKEN7-2019311322613455100421479313941434
BAKKEN6-2019301567015737142661737193957578
BAKKEN5-2019311340013201150191383068056619
BAKKEN4-20192813423130171008513523109592202
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20186518703505655060
BAKKEN9-201830361537213783721325976
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Off Lline And Inactive For Several Months, This EOG Hawkeye Well Is Back On Line -- December 8, 2019

After being IA and off-line for several months, this well is back on line and producing:
  • 22486, 2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek (see stand-alone post); 3-section spacing (1,920 acres); will this be a long lateral (9,000 feet) or a much-talked-about-seldom-seen-super-long lateral (14,000 feet)? I'm betting the latter. If accurate, a huge "thank you" to a reader. This well is NORTHEAST of Watford City. [Turned out to be 25,101 feet long. Yes, a super-long lateral, almost 3 sections long.] Did Lynn Helms misspeak or was he misquoted in The Bismarck Tribune when he said there was a gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City? If there is still another gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City that is better than this well, we are talking some big wells in the Bakken, Three Forks; 47 stages; 14 million lbs of sand, 1920-acre spacing unit; t9/12; cum 783K 10/19; remains off line 10/19; back on line 10/19; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20191618461772236919700
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201900340000
BAKKEN4-201926230221839341121
BAKKEN3-20193112091200152526371734517
BAKKEN2-20192711561152225424271940154
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Random Note On CLR's Uhlman / Pittsburgh Wells -- December 8, 2019

Continental (CLR) is operating eight rigs in North Dakota; two of them are drilling salt water disposal wells; one is drilling in the Long Creek Unit.

The other day it was noted that CLR reported eight more wells on the "plugged or producing" list which, of course, in the Bakken means they are producing.

The eight new wells were the Uhlman Federal/Pittsburgh wells which are tracked here.
  • 28737, 1,423, CLR, Uhlman 1-7H, Banks, t1/15; cum 458K 10/19; no evidence this well has been re-fracked (no sundry form; FracFocus); SWSE 7-152-99. Posted at "Wells of Interest." It's an interesting well. Went IA and off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19; back on line 9/19; minimal production over 6 days; huge jump in production, 10/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2019311186811815462651641015316692
BAKKEN9-2019664224477951028844130
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-2019003340000
BAKKEN4-2019282687271724761561814245995
BAKKEN3-2019313864348732711291012291200
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