Daily Activity Reports -- Thursday, Friday -- October 11 - 12, 2018

Sixteen new permits, October 11 (6) and October 12, 2018 (10):

• Operators: Whiting (4); Newfield (2); CLR (8); Kraken Operating (2)
• Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Siverston (McKenzie); Cedar Coulee (Dunn); Brooklyn (Williams); Green Lake (Williams)
• Comments: CLR has permits for a 4-well Gjorven pad in Brooklyn oil field in SESE 21-155-98;

One re-completed well:

• 15167, North Range, Beta Race Federal 22-6,

Two producing wells (DUC) reported as completed:

• 29616, 1,272, Slawson, Rebel Federal 1-32-8H, t9/18; cum --; several nice Slawson wells in this area, running in both directions (N/S and S/N); #33701, recently off-line; now coming back on line;
• 33995, 2,363, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-7, Blue Buttes, 9/18; cum --; part of a 10-well pad running south to north; neighboring 5-well pad running north to south:
• 17060, off-line;
• 23499, coming back on line after being off line for one-two months;
• 23500, ditto,
• 23501, never off line, no jump in production,
• 23502, ditto

Seven permits canceled:

• CLR (6): three Bang and three Carus permits, all in Dunn County
• Resource Energy Can-Am: one Mae permit in Divide County

Fourteen permits renewed:

• NP Resources (5): five Trotter Federal permits in McKenzie County 
• QEP (4): four Vegas permits in McKenzie County
• MRO (3): one Prior USA; one Ranum USA; and, one Walcel USA; all in Mountrail County
• Enerplus: a Brugh Bear permit in McKenzie County
• BR: one Mancord permit in Dunn County

Director's Cut -- August, 2018 -- Data Is Posted

Link here: for links to NDIC and the Director's Cuts. And to Art Berman's "shale is a retirement party."

Disclaimer: the Director's Cut summary that I try to do every month is done very, very quickly. There will be typographical and/or factual errors. That's why I have the link. If this information is important to you, go to the link.

Done very quickly this time because I am traveling. There are likely to be typographical errors.

Crude oil:

• August, 2018: 1,291,496 bopd (new all-time high)
• July, 2018:  1,269,290 bopd 
• Delta: 22,206 bopd
• Percentage delta: 1.74%

Memo to self: note to Art Berman.

For August, 2018, he number is: 1,291,496 bbls/day (new all-time high)

• Crude oil: 1,291,496 bopd
• Natural gas: 2,437,760 MCF/day = 406,226 boepd (new all-time high)
• Total: 1,697,721 boepd (new all-time high)
• July, 2018 (last month): 1,669,328 boepd

Well completions:

• August, completions, preliminary: 114
• July, completions: 106 (preliminary): actual -- 125 (final)
• June, completions: 63 (preliminary): actual - 85 (final)
• May, completions: 42 (preliminary); actual -- 72 (final)
• April, completions: 69 (preliminary); actual --> 86 (final)
• March completions: 75
• February completions: 74
• January completions: 65

DUCs + inactive wells:

• August, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,352
• DUCs, waiting on completion: 925, down 18 from end of July to end of August
• inactive well count: 1,427, down 59 from end of July to end of August; 
• July, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,429
• DUCs, waiting on completion: 943, down 50 from the end of June to the end of July
• inactive well count: 1,486, up 28 during same time period
• June, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,451
• May, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,451
• see "DUC commentary," dated June 29, 2018 

Flaring (Tioga gas plant was at 99% capacity):

• statewide: 82% (no change from last month)
• statewide, Bakken: 83% (down from 84% last month)
• FBIR Bakken: 73% (down from 76% last month) -- federal, getting worse; atrocious, compared to state
• ND goal: 88% capture; increasing to 91% beginning November 1, 2020

Morning Note -- October 12, 2018

Wells coming off the confidential list today and yesterday:

Friday, October 12, 2018:

• 34139, SI/NC,  WPX, Raptor 13-24HZ, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
• 32020, drl,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-6, Capa, no production data, 

Thursday, October 11, 2018:

• 34645, drl,  Eagle Operating, Popinga 32-16, wildcat,Madison County, vertical well, Renville County, no production data,
• 32021, SI/NC,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-5, Capa, no production data, 
• 31987, 1,063,  Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 41-11 13TX, Willow Creek, 4 sections, a nice well; t4/18; cum 105K 8/18; 

Active rigs:

$71.37	10/12/2018	10/12/2017	10/12/2016	10/12/2015	10/12/2014
Active Rigs	67	59	33	68	190

RBN Energy: Northeast gas pipeline expansions set to boost gas production -- again.

While many are getting ready for the usual trappings of fall — Halloween, Thanksgiving turkey and Black Friday sales — Northeast natural gas market participants are gearing up for their own seasonal ritual — gas pipeline takeaway expansions. Two days ago, Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline received approval to start partial service for nearly 1 Bcf/d of capacity. That follows Williams/Transco’s Atlantic Sunrise natural gas project, which launched service for its full 1.7 Bcf/d of southbound capacity last week (on October 6). Also last week, TransCanada/Columbia Gas Transmission was given the nod for partial service on both its Mountaineer Xpress and WB Xpress projects. Then there’s Energy Transfer’s Rover Pipeline, which is awaiting approval for its final two laterals. Combined, these projects are poised to add more than 4.0 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica takeaway capacity before the coldest months of winter arrive. What does that mean for the Northeast gas market this winter? Today, we provide an update on Atlantic Sunrise’s early effects and other upcoming projects completions.

Traveling Today -- Quick, Miscellaneous Notes -- October 11, 2018

Natural gas: more and more, this looks like this might be the energy story of the year --

Jobs: link here --

• forecast: 207K
• actual: 214K

EIA weekly petroleum report -- link here:

• huge crude oil build (and it could be worse next week): 6 million bbls; now at 410 million bbls; my threshold 400 million bbls
• refiners at a meagerly 89% operating capacity; wow; winter turnover; maintenance?
• crude oil imports averaging 5.3% more than same four-week period last year (the country needs the "right kind" of oil)
• gasoline production below 10 million bbls/day but distillate fuel production steady at 5.0 million bbls/day
• gasoline provided is trending down, but jet fuel use is trending up

The road to New York: link here. From a reader --

• Drill, baby, drill ...
• While Upstate New York withers, due to Cuomo's hatred of natural gas ........
• Shell to employ 6,000 construction workers to build plastic plant in Pennsylvania .......
• SIX THOUSAND WORKERS employed while upstate NY withers due to anti-natural gas policies by those in Albany ..

GDP -- link here, latest forecast -- October 10, 2018 -- 3Q18 -- 4.2% --

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.2 percent on October 10, up from 4.1 percent on October 5.

After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 2.09 percentage points to 2.20 percentage point.

Market crash: we'll see where we are six months from now. Investors don't often get these opportunities.

Morning Note Posted -- October 11, 2018

API weekly crude oil inventory data: link here. Wow, this is incredible -

• a massive build of 9.75 million bbls (and it could be worse next week)
• expectation: a smaller build of 2.62 million bbls

Natural gas prices soaring: fill-rate hits decade-low. The gap continues to widen.

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, October 11, 2018:

• 34645, drl,  Eagle Operating, Popinga 32-16, wildcat, no production data,
• 32021, SI/NC,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-5, Capa, no production data, 
• 31987, 1,063,  Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 41-11 13TX, Willow Creek, a nice well; t4/18; cum 105K 8/18;

Active rigs:

$72.24	10/11/2018	10/11/2017	10/11/2016	10/11/2015	10/11/2014
Active Rigs	68	59	33	68	190

RBN Energy: part 4, location, location, location, key to near-term E&P profitability growth.

Anyone who’s shopped for a home is well-aware of the relationship between location and valuation. The same holds true for oil and gas producers accumulating a portfolio of real estate underlain by the most promising oil and gas formations. Recently, the most desirable neighborhood has been the Permian Basin, which has seen more than $70 billion in M&A transactions since mid-2016. While the entire U.S. E&P sector has returned to profitability, Permian players have generated the highest production growth, the best margins, and the most substantial profits and cash flows. There’s a catch, though: production growth in the Permian has led to serious takeaway constraints. Today, we discuss how the impact of these constraints is reflected in a company-by-company analysis of quarterly results.