Off To The Races -- WTI -- September 11, 2018

Updates

Later, 9:51 p.m. CDT: $70.01.

Original Post 

After hours trading:

Going to $70 again before the end of the month?

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The Biology Page

I am blown away by what researchers are finding these days. First it was the color of dinosaur feathers.

Now, it's the "history" of Homo neanderthalensis and Homo sapiens: two different species, and species, by definition don't interbreed.

The book: Who We Are and How We Got Here: Ancient DNA and the New Science of the Human Past, David Reich, c. 2018.

H. neanderthalensis and H. sapiens split 100,000 years ago.

• mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA): maternal, mother to daughter
• high rate of mutation (at least relative to non-mtDNA)
• relatively easy to collect from bones
• especially high density, of all things, in the tiny bones of the inner ear (who would have thought)
• mtDNA clearly indicates that at least "some" neanderthals and "sapiens" interbred -- producing fertile offspring
• occurred at least 50,000 years ago in Africa
• Now, the Denisova Cave, 2008
• in the Atlai Mountains of Siberia
• one of the best samples of ancient DNA ever discovered -- in a bone from a child's little finger
• whole genome mapped
• neither neanderthal or "sapien" -- wow
• a new "human" -- the Denisovians
• specifically chose that name so as not to name a new species 
• it appears:
• modern human lineage split from "whatever existed before" about 770,00 to 550,000 years ago
• the other lineage, then split into Neanderthals and Denisovians between 470,000 and 380,000 years ago
• and then this: Denisovians (Siberian) closer genetically to New Guinea than to Eurasia
• theory
• the Denisovians separated into two lineages between 400,000 and 280,000 years ago
• one branch, the Australo-Denisovians: interbred with modern humans; direct ancestors of present-day New Guineans
• the Australo-Denisovians: a "ghost population" -- known only from genetics; no identifiable skeletal remains
• the story culminates in a population dispersal from the southeast about 14,000 years ago that spread a relatively homogeneous population across Europe and the Near East
• [interestingly, the book on Stonehenge recently read begins 10,000 years ago -- in the same ballpark]
• 8800 BC: first farmers spread into Europe from Anatolia (Turkey)
• 6800 BC: the hunter-gathers disappeared; occurred rapidly once it began
• 5000 BC: Yamnaya culture originating in central Asia swept across Europe, replacing existing populations
• across Europe, the "Corded Ware culture"
• these are most likely the speakers of proto-Indo-European (not the Anatolians)
• Reich explains why the folks of the Corded Ware culture were so successful
• plague
• Beaker folk

It's All About LNG -- September 11, 2018

Earlier today, I posted:

It's all about LNG

• see RBN Energy below
• PetroChina and Qatargas sing 22-year LNG supply deal; link here; 
• around 3.4 million tonnes of LNG annually
• a million tonnes LNG = 48 billion cubic feet NG; 22 x 48 = 1,056 billion cubic feet, or 1 trillion cubic feet? 
• China requires LNG for its push to replace coal with cleaner burning natural gas, a way to reduce air pollution. After Beijing started the program last year, China has overtaken South Korea as the world’s second-biggest buyer of LNG.
• China’s LNG imports may surge 70 percent to 65 million tonnes by 2020, according to consultancy SIA Energy. Last year, China imported a record 38.1 million tonnes, 46 percent more than the previous year.
• Meanwhile Qatar, the world’s biggest LNG producer, is seeking buyers for a planned expansion of its output.
• Exxon, BP reach deals with state of Alaska to provide 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, mostly from the North Slope, for the Alaska LNG Project; link here;
• still in talks: COP: for 9 trillion tcf
• Alaska LNG: a $43B-plus project; 800-mile gas pipeline from the North Slope to planned liquefaction plant in Nikiski ("Pat, I'd like to buy a vowel") on the Kenai Peninsula south of Anchorage
• 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas = eleven (11) years of Bakken production (boe) with Bakken at 1 million bopd and conversion factor of 6001

I knew the PetroChina / Qatar story was big, but I did not realize how big some people thing this story is. See this op-ed over at oilprice. I don't see it quite as "hair-raising" as the writer would suggest.

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The Millennials

I did not know this. A bit of trivia.

From an article in the current issue of The London Review of Books: "What Dettol Can't Fix," by Bee Wilson, a review of Elisabeth's Lists: A Family Story, Lulah Ellender, c. 2018.

Early in the article:

Making lists .... "Others, like the list of eggs, are stock-keeping exercises: taking the measure of our gold. This kind of listmaking is coming back into vogue among millennials with the rise of 'journaling': a habit of listing the good things that happened during the day as a way of improving mental health."

I assume, on a "good day," the "Dow" list is great for "improving the mental health" of the investor class. LOL.

Speaking of the Dow: "In the long run, we are all dead." 

Sea of Heartbreak, Don Gibson

WTI Surges -- Huge Weekly Draw -- API -- I'm Lovin' It -- September 11, 2018

Holy mackerel: a huge, huge draw -- and this explains the surge today --

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a major draw of 8.636 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending September 7, compared to S&P Global Platts analyst expectations that this week would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.7 million barrels.

Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest draw of 1.17 million barrels of crude oil. I followed the weekly numbers for a whole year recently and then quit following it -- no one seemed interested. And I finally got a "feel" for the weekly numbers.

Comment: I do not recall ever seeing a draw greater than 8 million bbls in one week. I recall 6 - 7 million bbls at the high end; maybe there were some draws approaching 8.6 million bbls but I don't recall such a high number. Now, let's hope the official EIA data validates the API. Very seldom does API and EIA data correlate. [Later: EIA data did corroborate the API data.]

The BR Merton wells have been updated. 

Active rigs:

$69.25↑↑↑	9/11/2018	09/11/2017	09/11/2016	09/11/2015	09/11/2014
Active Rigs	66	56	37	69	198

WTI: surge. Hurricane Florence won't cause a "supply" problem; storm will cause a "demand" problem. And yet WTI surges. End of driving season in the US. Deserves "four arrows" but my limit is three arrows. I'm still waiting for the API weekly crude oil inventories to be posted. 

Six new permits:

• Operator: Kraken Operating
• Field: Winner (Williams)
• Comments: Kraken has permits for a 6-well Knox pad in SWSW 9-158-100; 

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported at completed:

• 33813, 1,591, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 2H, Charlson, a nice well; t7/18; cum 16K in 25 days;
• 33814, 1,773, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 1H, Charlson, a very nice well; t7/18; cum 24K after 20 days;
• 33817,  683, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14- 1HS, Charlson, a nice well; t7/18; cum 9K after 15 days;

Administrative Judge Provides "Cover" For PSC Decision On Meridian's Davis Refinery Near The Park -- September 11, 2018 -- Rick Newman: Nominee For The 2018 Geico Rock Award

Updates

September 16, 2018: I may have been wrong in the original post. It was my understanding the PSC was simply asking for a second set of eyes to confirm what they already thought  -- but The Oil Patch Hotline appears to say that the case is closed: the PSC does not have jurisdication:

Efforts by environmental groups to put the Meridian Energy Group refinery at Belfield under the jurisdiction of the ND Public Service Commission were thwarted by an administrative law judge.

The judge, Patrick Ward, early in September ruled that a complaint from the Dakota Resource Council and Environmental Law & Policy Center be dismissed.

Because Meridian changed its plans to reduce the refining capacity from 55,000 BOPD to 49,500 BOPD, the PSC no longer has jurisdiction, the company told Ward.

The ND Dept. of Health had also issued an air quality permit earlier this year for 55,000 BOPD.

“Meridian plans to construct the Davis Refinery 111 as a single phase with a capacity of 49,500 bpd,” said attorney Lawrence Bender. As a result, the Davis Refinery is not a "gas or liquid energy conversion facility", which is subject to the Siting Act under the jurisdiction of the PSC.

“Meridian is not required to obtain a certificate of site compatibility for the facility prior to construction, and the PSC cannot exercise jurisdiction over this matter,” Bender said.

The environmental groups wanted the PSC regulatory authority because the refinery would impact their “use and enjoyment” of Theodore Roosevelt National Park, which is only three miles from the refinery.

Original Post 

Link here.

The judge's opinion is not binding but it provides the necessary "cover" the PUC needs before they vote.

Is it just me, or is this getting tedious?

And then this bit of garbage, some "yahoo" gives the Trump economy a "B."

What don't they want?

The article is here. The "yahoo" actually says some aspects of Jimmy Carter's economy were better than Trump's. That's when I quit reading.

I guess Rick Newman is a nominee for the 2018 Geico Rock Award. And will immediately go to the head of the pack.

The nominees for the 2018 Geico Rock Award can be found at this post.

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Why Isn't The Federal Government Stepping In? Price Gouging

The only thing I can figure out: Texas retailers are incredibly fair. Or lots of competition. But if folks are willing to pay $12.95 (and up) for a toy that retails for less than $1.99, don't complain about the price of gasoline. Or the price of Starbucks coffee. Or the price of an iPhone X.

Comments Have Been Turned Off -- I'm Getting A Lot Of Spam Comments

Something I have not seen before, all the spam.