Clearing Beartooth Highway -- April 21, 2018

Compare with a year ago:

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For The Alarmists Who Tell Us The Arctic Is Melting

From the Canadians:

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The Canadians

A Canadian's Opinion, Tex Ritter Hard to find; often removed from YouTube. One of my favorites.

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For The Granddaughters

Week 16: April 15, 2018 -- April 21, 2018

Of course, in geopolitics, not much is going to "rank higher" than the news that North Korea will suspend all nuclear missile testing/development.

The big energy story, without question, was the very likely possibility that KMI will walk away from the Trans Mountain pipeline project. My hunch: Alberta will take over the pipeline project, but KMI will form a new subsidiary to build the pipeline for Alberta and perhaps a separate subsidiary to operate the pipeline once complete. The names of the new subsidiary (or subsidiaries) will be completely unrelated to Kinder Morgan or KMI.

Of passing interest, it was also reported that India plans to slash by two-thirds any new nuclear reactors, thus "further expanding the country's use of coal for electrical power generation."

As the price of oil starts to creep up, with WTI coming close to $70 briefly at the end of the week,  (WTI topped $68 for the first time in three years), President Trump tweeted that OPEC-Russia were colluding to drive the price "artificially" higher. Within 24 hours of that tweet, is is reported that the EPA will "unveil" more flexible rules for the US oil and gas industry.

Western Dakota Energy Association: top stories of the past week
Natural gas production sets record
NDIC approves tweaks to gas capture rules
NDIC hears high water mark report

• this link will download a pdf to our desktop
• this here will download a PowerPoint presentation 

State, BIA to discuss flaring on Fort Berthold
Davis Refinery moves ahead with engineering; though the North Dakota Department of Health has not yet issued the final permit for construction

Operations
MRO's staggering IPs -- recently completed DUCs; and, here
Newfield may be the best producer in the Bakken -- Filloon
Different completion strategies being tested
February crude oil production drops slightly but sets up record production later this summer -- Zacks

Mineral rights
North Dakota has completed the much-anticipated high water / low water study of the Missouri River in the Bakken

Flaring
North Dakota will be more flexible regarding flaring

Bakken economy
Surprisingly sharp decline in Legacy Fund deposits in April, 2018 

Miscellaneous
US government cedes control of state's carbon capture and storage program to the state

Miscellaneous
Bald eagles make astonishing comeback in North Dakota

Huge Refineries Going Up In China -- April 20, 2018

The largest refinery in the US is the Motiva, at 600,000 bbls crude oil / day. And only one or two other come close. Hold that thought.

From Reuters today:

Chinese private chemical producer Hengli Group has won state approval to import 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) crude oil, the largest quota ever for a private refiner, as it challenges the country’s smaller independent plants in an oversupplied Chinese fuel market.

Another private chemical firm, Zhejiang Ronsheng Group, is also expected to start operating a new 400,000-bpd refinery in the eastern city of Zhoushan later this year. 

I think a lot of folks forget how big China really is.

It would be interesting to know if these refineries are configured/optimized for light, sweet oil (Bakken) or heavy oil (Mideast). I really don't know.

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Zacks On The Bakken

Link here.  North Dakota oil production slips but set for 2018 milestone -- Zacks.

As per North Dakota’s oil regulator, the state’s daily crude output fell 0.4% in February after edging down 0.3% in the previous month. The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources’ (‘DMR’) latest data said that oil production in February averaged 1,174,769 barrels a day, down 4,795 barrels a day from January.

But unlike crude, natural gas output went up – from January’s 2,071,820 thousand cubic feet per day to 2,102,266 thousand cubic feet per day – a new all-time high. As operators scramble to the core areas of the Bakken, wells here tend to produce more gas along with crude (present gas flare rate of around 15%).

Meanwhile, North Dakota’s total number of producing wells numbered 14,327 at the end of February, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

While the slight drop in oil activity – primarily attributed to cold weather – is the third month-over-month production decrease in a row, the decline was much smaller than anticipated. Moreover, daily output remained above 1 million barrels for the thirteenth month.

Therefore, notwithstanding the temporary blip, the newest numbers confirm the resurgence in volumes extracted from North Dakota, centered on the Bakken Shale formation.

Random Update Of A Zavanna Gust Well in Long Creek, April 20, 2018

Updates

April 23, 2018: a reader with an interest in this area writes:

Well number 19981, the jump in production was after fracking Gust wells 28885 and 28886.

In my view, Zavanna has used the Nelson and Gust wells to test Middle Bakken and TFH combinations, the Nelson 26776 and Nelson 26777 are TFH wells and the old 20085 Middle Bakken. 28885 is a TFH and 28886 is a Middle Bakken.

The Nelsons are fracked with 35 stages. Gust with 50 stages. Some has a GL (gas lift); others AL and one still F.

A Zavanna testbed?

I think the reader is exactly correct. Operators are testing completion strategies on newer wells, taking offset wells into consideration. Also, don't forget the microseismic array across the Bakken. 

 

Original Post 

Wow, this is quite remarkable, and why I love to blog. I already noted this well some time ago -- and predicted they were going to be huge wells. See this post.

This page will not be updated; the wells are followed at the link above.

Look at the recent production profile for this well:

• 19981, 1,003, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 1H, Long Creek, t3/12; cum 455K 2/18, partial production profile:

There is no evidence this well was re-fracked (FracFocus or sundry form). However, a sundry form said a work-over was accomplished on/about October, 2016: MIRU workover rig; pull GLA; perform cleanout; install GLA; RDMO workover rig; return to production 10/3/16.

This appears to be simply the result of a work-over. This is quite fascinating. Earlier today, for newbies, I posted the "life" of a Bakken well. A little over six years old, almost 500K and one workover. Pretty exciting.

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	4056	3905	4491	28253	26363	1473
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	4935	4847	5617	31052	27773	2817
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	4885	4427	5176	29374	27986	926
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	5229	5103	5122	29594	27413	1734
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	5600	5607	6126	29954	29259	233
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	5811	5943	6297	29271	28739	85
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	6678	6333	6843	29952	29469	21
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	7341	6989	7682	29477	28929	86
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	5441	5344	6684	21097	19965	685
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	7567	7570	8929	27811	26830	519
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	8734	7850	9248	29674	29014	213
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	10613	10327	10022	30812	30325	25
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	8719	8275	8931	22476	21935	124
BAKKEN	1-2017	28	7750	7466	8742	17320	16809	94
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	11408	10985	13276	25906	24691	753
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	13433	12803	14520	28316	27600	269
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	16248	15543	16160	31314	30449	403
BAKKEN	9-2016	1	0	0	0	15	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	27	2377	2266	2797	10982	9670	910
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	1698	1570	2128	8036	5893	1681
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	3782	3614	4518	9888	7979	146

Comments: none now. Maybe later.

T+51 -- North Korea Announces It Will Freeeze All Nuclear Testing -- No Pre-Conditions -- Unilateral -- The Golden Age -- Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 20, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.40→	4/20/2018	04/20/2017	04/20/2016	04/20/2015	04/20/2014
Active Rigs	59	49	28	92	188

Five new permits:

• Operators: NP Resources (3); Oasis; WPX
• Fields: Tree Top (Billings); Banks (McKenzie); Wolf Bay (Dunn)
• Comments:

Two permits renewed:

• Sinclair: two Diamond permits in McKenzie County

Six producing wells completed:

• 33827, 690, Hess, CA-E Burdick-LW-155-95-2017H-1, Beaver Lodge, t4/18; cum --
• 33831, 949, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-7, Capa, t3/18; cum --
• 33828, 851, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-10, Capa, t4/18; cum --
• 33829, 742, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-9, Capa, t4/18; cum --
• 33004, n/d, Petroshale, Petroshale US 4H, Antelope, Sanish pool, no data --
• 33005, 1,560, Petroshale, Petroshale US 3H, Antelope, Sanish pool, no data --