Random Update Of UND EERC's CO2 Injection Project -- November 29, 2017

See this post from November 6, 2017.

Now an update.

A reader sent the following photos with this comment:

Drilling a 6,000-foot well to test CO2 injection from power plants in Mercer County, north of Golden Valley. Moving to Center, ND, in Oliver County after this for the same reason. Will be logging both wells for hydrocarbon shows.

A few observations:

• note how quickly from permit to execution -- I'm impressed
• Neset Consulting Services -- great Bakken story in itself  
• how few vehicles on site -- how efficient the operation seems to be in terms of personnel

The photos:

Spot Electricity In Australia -- $14,000/MWh -- Reader -- November 29, 2017 -- Elon Musk Batteries NOT Working?

Australia has become the poster child for idiotic green energy policies.

I link electricity demand / prices for New England, California (demand, price), and Australia at my "Data Links" page.

Generally, it appears in the US, one can expect (today) about $20 - $50/MWh spot electricity.

A reader watching the Australian situation writes (just a few minutes ago):

I've been keeping an eye on the Australia electricity situation as a "canary in the coal mine" scenario with their advanced adoption of sun/wind generation. 

Well, in a few hours, as per the AEMO website, spot electricity will cost $14,000 MWh for the entire afternoon in Victoria and South Australia. 

In addition, Level 2 notice was sent out by the AEMO asking (begging?) for restricted consumption and every available generating source to fire up. 

The weather today is to be hot - 94 degrees - and cloudy.

Final note ... future contracts for summer quarter for SA and Vic are $173 and $149 per MWh. 

There is no way a modern society can function at those prices.

That is no exaggeration. Look at these two screen shots: one for South Australia and one for Victoria. Right now, in South Australia, the spot price is $188/MWh and in a few hours the spot price will be $13,000/MWh:

Similar graphic for Victoria:

I thought Elon Musk has solved that problem by placing the world's largest battery in South Australia. He won the bet by getting the battery built; he didn't say anything about solving the energy problem for South Australia.

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Natural Gas

Meanwhile, a reader provided this map -- it's going to be cold over most of the US next week. We'll see how natural gas holds up.  

The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+312 -- November 29, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

UNP: recently hiked its dividend 10%. Earlier this morning, shares hit a new 52-week high, but in afternoon trading really took off. Whoo-hoo. UNP shares jumped almost 4% (up $3.38) and are now trading above $121.

AAPL: on the other hand, not doing so well; two bad days in a row during which the market has surged. Down another 2.5% this afternoon, trading about $169. Hackers reported, and Apple confirmed, a security flaw but Apple has already released a patch to fix the vulnerability. It seems it would be a stretch that this issue is affecting Apple to this degree but I suppose it's possible. If so, the issue should be short-lived.

PLM: a cobalt shortage? From The WSJ, Supply will react too. Companies that operate copper and nickel mines, where cobalt is co-produced, are targeting expansion, and there are some pure-play cobalt mines being planned that could start producing shortly after the projected shortage hits. Comments? 130 -- a huge number of comments; a lot of folks interested in this topic. Gist of comments: it's all about Tesla, and that's why there were so many comments.

Tagged, lost decade. From The WSJ, US economy reaches its potential output for the first time in a decade. Let's see. Who was president this past decade? Oh, that's right.  U.S. GDP growth revised up to 3.3% rate for third quarter, with more business investment in equipment and software, and heftier government spending. Those commenting have it exactly right -- at 3.3% the US has not reached its potential. Reaching full potential -- at least 5 - 7% growth. Seriously.

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The Literary Page

In one paragraph, Jean Moorcroft Wilson explained the origins of WWI in her biography of Siegfried Sassoon. A few quick wiki checks to fill in the gaps and I now have my world view of the origins of WWI -- something I couldn't figure out despite years of reading about WWI off and on. Pretty impressive that an authority on war poets could explain this much history in one paragraph. My world view may be wrong, but I at least have the scaffolding now to begin any serious re-reading of WWI history.

The Energy And Market Page, T+312 -- November 29, 2017

From Bloomberg:

America’s largest oil refinery, located in Port Arthur, Texas, is owned by Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company, Aramco, and since it first bought a stake in 1988, the Motiva refinery guaranteed the kingdom a strategic foothold in the world’s largest energy market.

The tankers carrying millions of barrels a month of Arab Light crude from Saudi export terminals to Port Arthur were testament to the strength of the energy and political ties binding Riyadh and Washington.

All of a sudden, there are very few Saudi ships arriving in Texas. Since July, Aramco has constricted supply, attempting to drain the crude storage tanks at Motiva -- and many others across America -- part of a plan to lift oil prices, even at the cost of sacrificing its once prized U.S. market.

While Motiva is most affected, the rest of the U.S. oil refining system, from El Segundo in California to Lake Lake Charles in Louisiana, has also taken a hit.

The result: Saudi crude exports into America fell to a 30-year low last month.

"The drop is huge," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. "It’s not just that Saudi exports are low, but they have been low for several months.

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Jumpers and Hunters

Had I "sped-read" a passage in the the biography of Siegfried Sassoon I would have missed this passage describing Sassoon's enlistment with the cavalry unit, the 1st/1st Sussex Yeomanry:

Sassoon, who brought his precious hunter Cockbird with him, in their desperation to keep the few horses they had managed to requisition , are reputed to have hidden them in cellars.

In context, one can quickly figure out what a "hunter" is. But I did not know more than that.

For those interested in "hunters" vs "jumpers," see this link.

US Crude Oil Inventories Down By Another 3.4 Million Bbls -- November 29, 2017 -- Time To Re-Balance Drops One Week To 41 Weeks

The EIA's weekly petroleum report has been posted.

• US crude oil inventories: decreased by 3.4 million bbls; now at 453.7 million bbls

The narrative looks great ... until you look at the graph:

Other data from the report:

• refineries continue to increase their operating capacity, now at 92.6%
• gasoline production, pretty much unchanged, at 10.2 million bbls/day
• distillate fuel production, pretty much unchanged, at 5.3 million bbls/day 
• total gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million bbls last week; in the middle of the average range
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.7 million bbls last week but still int he lower half of the average range
• the "gasoline demand" graph will be released tomorrow

Refinery throughput, via Twitter:

 
Time to re-balance:

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	52
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37
Week 26	October 25, 2017	-0.9	457.3	39
Week 27	November 1, 2017	2.4	454.9	38
Week 28	November 8, 2017	-2.2	457.1	42
Week 29	November 15, 2017	1.9	459.0	43
Week 30	November 22, 2017	1.9	457.1	42
Week 31	November 29, 2017	3.4	453.7	41