Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Stop The Presses! Top Story Of The Week -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Danica Patrick Out -- September 12, 2017; Also, The $2-Trillion Man

I was wondering when this day would come. In NASCAR, most of her races:
finishing between 12th and 25th; or,
DNF
Having said that, she has done as well as many of the current NASCAR drivers.

From Fox News: Danica Patrica is done at Stewart-Haas racing after this year (2017); NASCAR future is in question. 
Patrick posted a statement on her Facebook page Tuesday saying her time with Stewart-Haas "had come to an end" due to a new sponsorship arrangement for the team next season.
The statement came shortly after Smithfield Foods said it will leave Richard Petty Motorsports to become a primary sponsor at Stewart-Haas next year. The news is a blow to RPM, but it also forced changes at Stewart-Haas, which has struggled with sponsorship for three of its four cars, including the No. 10 driven by Patrick.
Could we possibly see a new Dale Earnhardt, Jr - Danica Patrick NASCAR hookup?

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Meanwhile, Back To The Market

CNBC noted:
$2 trillion man? Market value added since Trump's election win passes milestone. The S&P 500 has added $2.04 trillion in market value since Trump's election last November.
Tech is up nearly 30 percent since the election, and has also added $1.019 trillion in value to the S&P in the time period, the most out of any sector.

Random Update Of The CLR Anna Wells in Last Chance Oil Field -- September 12, 2017

The graphic:



The CLR Anna wells are tracked here: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2017/02/request-for-information-on-clrs-anna.html. 

The wells: were fracked in January/February, 2017, time frame:
  • 32966, conf, CLR, Anna 6-34H1, Last Chance,
  • 32967, 1,104, CLR, Anna 7-34H, Last Chance, t7/17; cum 21K 7/17;
  • 32968, 920, CLR, Anna 8-34H1, Last Chance, t9/17; cum --
The index well:
  • 23279, 767, CLR,Anna 1-27H, Last Chance, t11/12; cum 259K 7/17; nothing at FracFocus to suggest this well was re-fracked after the original frack in 2012; no sundry form suggesting any re-frack. This well was down to 2,000 bbls / month. After it was taken off-line and then returned to production after a few months, it produced a year's worth of oil in two months.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20173191689744311781080110695106
BAKKEN6-20173019878195576299621735192112524
BAKKEN5-20173018710190838679919108155723536
BAKKEN4-2017260701071770177
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-2017170226131020102
BAKKEN12-201624182017261116267926790
BAKKEN11-201630216523321368307230720
BAKKEN10-201631245324951542335933590
BAKKEN9-20163024722386172836813101580
BAKKEN8-20163127352585188833402550790
BAKKEN7-2016311790167414781897982915

A New Operator In The Bakken; Will Target The Lodgepole Down By Dickinson; Major Indices Close At Record High -- September 12, 2017

The Close

Trifecta: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq end at records on the same day for first time in six weeks.

 Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.37→9/12/201709/12/201609/12/201509/12/201409/12/2013
Active Rigs553769197182

Three new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (2); Freedom Energy Operating, LLC
  • Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn County); Heart River (Wildcat, Stark County)
  • Comments: this is Freedom Energy's first permit in North Dakota; this first of theirs is for a well to target the Lodgepole; SESE 15-139-97; see graphic below; see this post on the Lodgepole reefs in the Dickinson area;
Twelve permits canceled:
  • Petro-Hunt (11):  a Hot Rod permit; four D Annunzio permits; two Billy Ray Valentine permits; a Cameron Frye permit -- all in McKenzie County; two Lloyd Christmas permits in Stark County
  • EOG: one Van Hook permit in Mountrail County
One permit renewed:
  • Murex: a Emu permit in Renville County
Four producing wells completed:
  • 28565, 1,212, CLR,Wiley 4-25H2, Pershing, t8/17; cum -- (#19935, #19936)
  • 28566, 693, CLR, Wiley 5-25H, Pershing, t8/17; cum -- (#19935, #19936)
  • 32968, 920, CLR, Anna 8-34H1, Last Chance, t9/17; cum --  (#23279)
  • 32969, 1,391, CLR, Anna 9034H1, Last Chance, t8/17; cum --  (#23279)
Fifteen well name changes; these all look like old wells, with the lowest permit number being 05182 and the highest permit number being 15769; most are inactive; at least one is abandoned; I checked about a dozen of them; none were active, but some had produced a small amount of oil as recently as two months ago
  • True Oil has fifteen well name changes, changing from Burlington Northern wells to Red Wing Creek Unit wells, all in McKenzie County
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Kind Of Interesting -- EIA' s Latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) -- September 12, 2017

Oil Markets:
  • Industry watchers across the sector will have to grapple with uncertainty regarding the timeline for the return to normal operations for critical energy infrastructure, including refineries, in the coming weeks and months.
  • U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 9.3 million barrels per day in 2017 and 9.8 million barrels per day in 2018. Downward revisions to the forecast partly reflect the effects of Hurricane Harvey.
  • EIA continues to expect growing oil output, with crude oil production forecast to reach an all-time high of 9.8 million barrels per day in 2018, topping the old 1970 record of 9.6 million barrels per day.
Gasoline/Refined Products:
  • Following Harvey, the national average price of gasoline hit $2.68 a gallon, the highest in two years. EIA expects that to fall to an average of $2.61 a gallon for all of September and to $2.40 by October as, the energy supply system returns to more normal operations.
  • We saw marked decreases in refinery operations following Hurricane Harvey, but operations are beginning to ramp up. EIA expects refinery runs in September to average 15.3 million barrels per day, well below the August level, but runs should increase into October.
  • EIA expects that the loss of refined product production—because of reduced refinery operations—will be made up for through a combination of lower net exports and larger-than-normal inventory draws.
Natural Gas:
  • Given NOAA’s forecast of a colder winter this year compared with last year, EIA expects natural gas prices to average almost $3.30 per million Btu this winter, up about 30 cents from last winter.
Electricity:
  • Higher natural gas prices will likely contribute to a decrease in its share of total utility-scale electricity generation in 2017, falling by 3 percentage points compared to 2016. In contrast, coal will increase its share by 1 percentage point in 2017.
  • EIA projects the electricity generation shares of natural gas and coal to remain largely unchanged in 2018 at averages of 31% and 32%, respectively.
Coal:
  • U.S. coal production in 2018 is projected to reach its highest levels in three years because of expected growth in electric power sector demand. (The coal-powered car will start to impact coal production in the US.)
Renewables:
  • Solar will continue to make gains in electricity generating capacity through 2018, with an expected 11 gigawatt increase from 2016’s 22 gigawatt capacity.

The Political Page, Part 2, T+235 -- September 12, 2017

Wow, this must just bum out The Washington Post; Barack Obama, Inc; and Hillary Clinton, LLC: having to report that middle class income hit its highest level on record in 2016. This occurred under then-President Obama's watch and could have been reported by no-President Hillary today, but this story will be reported during Trump's first year as president. Wow, talk about catching a wave.
Median household income in America was $59,039 last year, surpassing the previous high of $58,655 set in 1999, the Census Bureau said. The figure is adjusted for inflation and is one of the most closely watched indicators of how the middle class is faring financially, as the Census surveys nearly 100,000 homes.
Too bad, Hillary didn't have this data in 2016. Of course, she should have visited Wisconsin also but that's another story.

More from the article:
America's poverty rate also fell to 12.7 percent, the lowest since 2007, the year before the financial crisis hit. The percent of Americans without health insurance for the entire year also dropped in 2016 to just 8.8 percent, largely thanks to expanding coverage under the Affordable Care Act.
Not noted, of course, with the deductibles and co-pays, very few middle Americans can actually afford health care, but that, too, is a another story.

For those who like those statistics, you may also like to know that 61% of respondents would like to see Hillary Clinton retire. I think after her book tour ends, that will probable be the last we really see of her.

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Smart Woman

From CNN, reporting on the new White House communications director:
Hope Hicks, 28, had not moved into the office designated for the White House communications director, instead opting to remain at her current desk just outside the Oval Office.
Smart, smart non-move. Smart woman. Only 28 years old.