Learning Mah Jongg -- July 16, 2017 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Simplified rules for Mah Jongg for beginners.

Another great day with Sophia. Several years ago while visiting the Bakken, Chuck Wilder (Books on Broadway, Williston, ND) and his wild and crazy group invited me to an evening of Mah Jongg (and lots of great food). I had never played Mah Jongg before but was always interested. The basics of the game were picked up easily but it was obvious I only knew the very basic of the basics.

Shortly after that I bought a very elegant Mah Jongg set, and opened it rarely. Today I decided to re-learn the game with Sophia. She was quite excited. One-hundred-fifty-two (152) tiles. Apparently the Chinese set has 144 tiles; the American set has 152 tiles (the Chinese set plus 8 jokers). Three dice, although technically, I suppose only one is needed. And then all those plastic racks and plastic counters. She was quite critical of the instructions; apparently not enough strategy, just the basic rules.

[Later: I had forgotten this. I posted a photo of Sophia's two older sisters also "playing" Mah Jongg with the same set.]

By the way, Mah Jongg is the ultimate betting / gambling game (makes poker look absolutely trivial). It is amazing how the rules of the game minimize any chance of cheating or "counting" tiles. 

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Ms Du Maurier

Some years ago before I discovered the internet, and when I was deep into my reading program, I stumbled across Daphne du Maurier and was in a "du Maurier" phase for quite some time. It was a real thrill to see a book review in this weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal: "Daphne du Maurier in Her Prime. Rebecca is derivative and full of cliches. It doesn't matter. The novel is still compellingly alive. Allan Massive reviews "Manderley Forever" by Tatiana de Rosnay.

The review begins:

Daphne du Maurier was born in 1907, in London, into the upper reaches of bohemia. Her grandfather George was an artist and the author of the best-selling novel “Trilby” (known best for the character Svengali). Her father, Gerald, with whom she had an intense, perhaps unhealthily intense, relationship, was a star of the London theater. Her cousins, the Llewelyn-Davies boys, inspired J.M. Barrie to write “Peter Pan.”

There was something of Peter in Daphne. As a young girl she wanted to be a boy and invented for herself an alter ego called Eric Avon. The boy never quite died in her.

In addition to a copy of Rebecca, three other du Maurier books on my shelves:

• The Winding Stair, Daphne du Maurier, c. 1976 
• Daphne du Maurier, Twayne's English Authors Series, Richard Kelly, c. 1987 
• Daphne du Maurier, The Secret Life of the Renowned Storyteller, Margaret Forster, c. 1993

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Pet Peeve

Frankly (and quit calling me "Frank" -- LOL) I'm getting tired of all these writers wringing their hands over FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). In this weekend's edition of The Wall Street Journal, this "cover story" in the "Review Section": "Can The Giants Be Stopped?"

One wonders if, in 1903, the horse and buggy industry was publishing press releases with this subject, "Can Ford Be Stopped?"

This anxiety over FAANG is so tiresome.

Yes, things are changing. Get over it.

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Vic Hanson

Early this morning I spent the better part of two hours reading the Vic Hanson blog. I could have picked any number of his posts to highlight but for some reason this one struck a chord. I hope the link never breaks.

Vic Hanson is linked at the sidebar at the right.

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TV Trivia

What is the connecting dot between Miami Vice's  seventh episode (first season), "No Exit" and my alma mater, Augustana College (now Augustana University), Sioux Falls, SD?

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- July 16, 2017

Friday, July 21, 2017

• 32742, 1,996, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-8, Hawkeye, Three Forks, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs, large (40/70); small (30/50); t5/17; cum 8K after 4 days;

Thursday, July 20, 2017

• None

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

• None

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

• 30086, 636, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-5TFH, McGregor, Three Forks, 27 stages, 6.5 million lbs, 40/70 (large-size proppant), t1/17; cum 45K 5/17;
• 32744, 1,947, Hess, HQ-Grimestad-LE-152-95-3031H-1, Hawkeye, 60 stages, 8.4 million lbs (combo large-size, small-size proppant), t5/17; cum 19K 5/17 (12 days);
• 33274, 180, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 5A-26-25-164N-100W,  West Ambrose, t4/17; cum 7K 5/17;
• 32746, SI/NC, BR, Lassen 4-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 32911, SI/NC, BR, Lillibridge 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 33148, SI/NC, Petro Harvester, STR1 22-15 163-90 B, Stony Run, no production data,

Monday, July 17, 2017

• 32910, SI/NC, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data, 

Sunday, July 16, 2017

• 32747, SI/NC, BR ,Lassen 5-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Saturday, July 15, 2017

• 28739, 564, EOG, Parshall 86-29H, Parshall, middle Bakken, 2 sections, 23 stages, 5.6 million lbs, t1/17; cum 39K 5/17;
• 32909, SI/NC, BR, Lillibridge 3B UTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,

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32742, see above, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-8, Hawkeye:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2017	7776	715

30086, see below, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-5TFH, McGregor:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2017	12774	15755
4-2017	10304	9873
3-2017	9675	9225
2-2017	3107	2953
1-2017	8632	6883

 33274, see above, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 5A-26-25-164N-100W,  West Ambrose:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2017	4998	2704
4-2017	1388	886

28739, see above, EOG, Parshall 86-29H, Parshall:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2017	5951	7230
4-2017	6537	6392
3-2017	7607	7691
2-2017	11084	9315
1-2017	8139	2971

Connecting The Dots -- The $24 Billion Blood Clot -- July 16, 2017

Sub-$2.00 gasoline. Add nine more states to the list. Make America great again.
This is going to help the bottom line of anything connected to the transportation sector. And then it will spill over to other sectors. 

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Update On Intermittent Energy

Random thought for the day: from Forbes, June 3, 2016 - a record year for renewable energy.  

 2015 saw record additions of renewable energy around the world, as well as high-profile agreements and announcements related to renewable energy. An estimated 147 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power capacity was added in 2015 - the largest annual increase ever - and in spite of continued low prices for fossil fuels.

But:

Renewables made up 19.2% of overall global energy consumption in 2015. This is relatively unchanged in recent years despite the rapid growth rates. Modern renewables like wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal power cumulatively made up 1.4% of global energy consumption. For perspective, the number was 1.2% in 2012.

This illustrates one of the challenges renewables face in rapidly displacing large amounts of fossil fuel. In recent years overall global growth in energy consumption has been greater than the additions from renewables. Hence because renewables are such a small part of the overall energy picture, even with their rapid growth rates they struggle to keep pace with overall demand growth. As a result they displace fossil fuels much more slowly than some have projected.

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Connecting The Dots

Monday, July 17, 2017, should be an interesting day. The story for the past six months -- seemingly reported almost every day on CNBC --  the Trump rally (which they never called it) -- was dependent on tax cuts ("tax reform").

Right now futures suggest we will see new record-setting highs Monday.

Meanwhile, the tea leaves suggest we won't be seeing any tax cuts ("tax reform") this year because, according to CNBC, tax cuts were dependent on finding money in ObamaCare repair to make tax cuts possible.

ObamaCare repair was unlikely to begin with, but with McCain's health in doubt, it is unlikely we will see ObamaCare repair even voted on for quite some time. Even if Senate allows McCain to vote from Arizone, McConnell has already said he will postpone the vote until McCain returns to Washington.

Most ironic is that many states will lose billions of dollars in payoffs to have their senators vote to support McConnell's ObamaCare repair bill. One story suggested that $24 billion had already been promised to senators of red states if they would vote for ObamaCare repair; supposedly McConnell has $188 billion in the "Senate slush" fund that he can legally use to entire senators from red states to support his bill.

But the McCain blood clot may have stopped all that. If so, McCain's condition has suddenly beocme the $24-billion blood clot, and maybe even the $188-billion blood clot. The even more concernng story is that this "minimally invasive" surgery of drilling a hole through McCain's cranium into his brain cavity to remove a "small" blood clot could be much more serious that originally reported.

First, the surgery itself may be "minimally invasive" for someone else, but for McCain it certainly wasn't "minimally invasive." At least if this happened to me, I wouldn't call anyone drilling a hole in my cranium minimally invasive; it would be a "big deal."

Second, and worse, no one has talked about the underlying reason for a "small" blood clot to have been found. I would assume there was some underlying condition that led to the clot. If so, the question arises, are their other blood clots waiting to reveal themselves; is the underlying condition life-threatening (cancer is one of the leading causes of hypercoagulability)?

Ironically, the man Trump loves to hate may be the man he loses for the 51 votes Trump needs to get anything done, including tax reform.

The tea leaves certainly suggest that tax reform is dead for this year, maybe forever under the Trump administration (at least meaningful reform). If so it brings into question the CNBC story line for the past six months: no ObamaCare repair, no tax reform, no stock market rally.

Which brings us back to Monday. Normally if bad news comes out over the weekend, it is reflected in the stock market at the opening on Monday. Anyone following the stock market and buying into the CNBC story would agree that it was bad, bad news over the weekend.

Others suggest that the market is "for real." It is not based on tax reform any more.

I'm looking forward to an interesting Monday.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Gasoline Drops Below $2 In Five States; More Could Follow -- July 15, 2017

Update

July 16, 2017: America's #1 cheerleader --

Something tells me the mainstream media won't post this tweet. LOL. Mainstream media cherry picks his tweets, just like everything else.

July 16, 2017: add nine more states to the list of sub-$2.00 gasoline (make America great again):

• Iowa: $1.94
• North Dakota: $1.92
• Wyoming: $1.86
• Colorado: $1.98
• South Dakota: $1.99
• Nebraska: $1.89
• Kansas: $1.87
• Illinois: $1.81
• Missouri: $1.84

July 16, 2017: making America great again! Add Minnesota to the list! Hard to believe! But again, this is in Moorhead, practically in eastern North Dakota. Most likely Moorhead, sister city to Fargo, had to lower prices to compete with North Dakota prices, LOL:

 

Original Post

 

From 24/7 Wall Street, the five states:

• South Carolina, $1.95 (the state's very low gas tax is well below the national average)
• Alabama, $1.97
• Oklahoma, $1.98
• Mississippi, $1.99
• Arkansas, $1.99
• Three states near the $2.00-mark: Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, and Louisiana

President Trump was not mentioned in the article. 

From the archives:

What a doofus
By the way, I'm being told that the video above is fake. Either part of Obama's speech was deleted by the Russians, or he turned from the monitor too soon and missed the rest of the statement.

President Obama's entire statement on this issue was apparently this: "We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices; we need to frack, too. Especially in the Bakken. And maybe even off-shore."

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Connecting the Natural Gas Dots

Unless you've been under the Geico Rock for the past two months you know that:

• the US and the EU are charting different paths for energy
• having said that, the handshake between Trump and Macron lasted 25 seconds (CNBC)
• the US doesn't care much for the Mideast except maybe Saudi Arabia; the Trump administration policy: "at least it's better than the alternative (Iran)"
• Qatar's neighbors are upset about Qatar; Saudi has imposed sea-lane quarantine on Qatar
• Qatar has a lot of natural gas
• France uses a lot of natural gas
• France plans to close a significant number of nuclear plants, saying it doesn't want to become overly dependent on nuclear energy (German and US engineers hold that card) and, apparently, would rather become overly dependent on Qatar natural gas instead
• if no relief, France will have to ask the EU to approve a Russian natural gas pipeline to Paris

So that leads us to the headline story over at GoogleFinance right now: France calls for swift lifting of sanctions on Qatari nationals.

I can't make this stuff up.

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Air Canada Pilots: Color-Blind Or Just Plain Idiots

Link here. I can't make this stuff up. 

Congress needs to write a new law: Air Canada planes need to land on runways, not taxiways. It would help prevent near accidents like this. Would a robotic pilot have done a better job?Of course.

US Economy -- Making America Great Again -- July 15, 2017

A few days ago I said that if I had the time I would come back to this story:

Connecting dots: if I'm in the mood later this weekend, I will blog a stand-along post on this very interesting phenomenon.

• truck industry -- particularly the specialty truck industry booming -- personal e-mail
• Trump presidency -- again, a personal e-mail
• the FAST Act
• update on the SPR release

This is how it all started, this paragraph buried in a long RBN Energy post:

Potentially even more significant than the recent impact of the SPR is the outlook for future draws at the reserve. In addition to the Section 404 and 21^st Century Cures Act withdrawals discussed above, Congress also has authorized additional SPR withdrawals in 2018-25.

Section 403 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 directs the DOE to sell a total of 58 MMbbl over that period, starting with 5 MMbbl in 2018, with the resulting revenue to go to the Treasury Department’s general fund.

And the Fix America’s Surface Transportation Act, signed into law by President Obama in December 2016, calls for a total of 66 MMbbl to be sold from the SPR in 2023-25. Figure 3 shows the planned SPR drawdowns over the next eight years.

Obama's Fix America's Surface Transportation Act: FAST. Literally signed into law the very last month of President Obama's presidency.

Two interesting links follow from the above:

• April heavy-duty truck orders signal continued industry recovery, May 3, 2017
• March heavy-duty trucker orders solidify industry recovery, April 5, 2017

Personal communication with worker at a specialty heavy truck manufacturer in Portland Oregon:

• orders higher than usual in April, May time frame; backlog building; may need to increase workforce
• normally, orders "come in" in the fall, so this is unusual to get so many new orders at this time
• directly related to states across the US ordering more heavy trucks for all the highways being built; expanded; re-surfaced; etc

But this was the kicker: the individual reported that the company did not make the decision to go forward with increased production UNTIL after Trump was elected president. The company apparently waited until the election outcome to decide whether to increase production.

I learned of the Portland story a week or so before I read the blurb in the RBN Energy post, so I was keeping my eye out for collaborating information. It was interesting to find it buried in an RBN Energy post. So much fun.