Friday, May 5, 2017

Idle Chatter On The Market -- May 5, 2017

Updates

Later, 10:55 p.m. CT: shortly after posting the article below, a reader sent me the link to a NYT article: "The Fabulous Apple Cash Machine."
That hasn’t prevented its share price from powering upward. For the moment, the stock market remains entranced with what Apple is doing financially, and for understandable reasons. Apple may no longer be a great growth company but it is still extraordinary, said Aswath Damodaran, a New York University finance professor, who has analyzed Apple’s earnings closely since 2010. Come what may, he said, Apple churns out staggering quantities of money with metronomic regularity.
“Apple is the greatest corporate cash machine in history,” he said in an interview. “We should appreciate that amazing achievement. The problem is, it’s not growing much. It’s a slow-growth cash-generating machine.”
On Tuesday, the company provided fresh details of how great a cash machine it is. In just three months, after expenses and investments and payouts to shareholders, Apple’s already colossal pile of cash and marketable securities grew another $10.8 billion, reaching a nearly unfathomable $256.8 billion.
Quantum theory: Although the use of the wave-particle duality has worked well in physics, the meaning or interpretation has not been satisfactorily resolved.

Likewise, Apple, to me suggests a similar problem when trying to pigeon-hole Apple: is it a growth company? Is it a value company?

I don't think the answer to that has been satisfactorily resolved.

In physics, whether an entity is a particle or a wave depends on how it is measured.

Same with Apple Inc: how one sees Apple Inc -- as a growth company or as a value company depends on how it is measured.

My hunch is that Apple folks like to think of the company as a "growth" company, whereas financial analysts see Apple as a "value" company. 


Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. In this particular case, I am only stating what I plan to do if I win a $1 million+ lottery. This is not my recommendation for anyone else.

In my 40+ years of mediocre investing, I've never seen such clear-cut options for those who want to invest in the equity market (NYSE or NASDAQ). For me there are three options if I win the $1 million + lottery:
a) one-half goes into AAPL and one-half goes into Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett). One could live off the AAPL dividends but if not enough, then sell a portion of Berkshire shares at one year + one day, paying capital gains tax
b) if one thinks WTI will never go below $40 again, then put the entire $1 million into oil and oil service companies
c) if either of those options are too extreme, then simply put the entire amount into a John Bogle mutual fund and forget about it
That's what I plan to do if I win the $1 million+ lottery. Plus buy a new bike. Plus an expensive bottle of Scotch. New shoes for my wife. Ditto, a new purse. A chocolate croissant for Sophia. And a new iPad for Sophia. But that's about it.

With regard to AAPL, these are the current price targets:

 With regard to Warren Buffett: he's finally seen the light when it comes to technology and 21st century investing.

Week 18: April 29, 2017 -- May 6, 2017

Everything was going well until things went wrong. Really wrong. Crude oil pricing flash crash in Asia overnight, May 4 - May 5, 2017, dropping crude oil to $43 and change. By the end of the week, WTI had recovered a bit but still in the $46-range. Saudi Arabia got caught with its siphon in its storage tanks. OPEC production cuts pretty much mean nothing at this point -- for whatever cuts Saudi Arabia "might" be making (wink, wink), they are more than compensating with oil from storage. One big shell game. The analysts and traders finally caught on.

The blog has a new metric: the number of weeks until US oil is re-balanced.

Bloomberg says the independent shale producers are dancing circles around the majors. One wonders how ugly the Permian might get. Fracking solutions in the Bakken suggests that the Permian has a fracking problem.

Meanwhile, Trump's administration is hitting on all cylinders: a) The US House repeals ObamaCare (whatever that means); and, b) unemployment rate hits 10-year low, four months into Trump's administration. MSNBC confused; CNBC shocked -- only Rick Santelli came close. 

Most depressing graphic for the week at this post.

For the archives: the eleven most under-reported stories in the US

Operations
Top producing wells in North Dakota 
Halcon reports a monster well; more than 50K in one month
Resource Energy adds more Bakken acreage for less than $800/acre

Pipelines
Pembina Pipeline to buy Veresen
DAPL protests: follow the money and the amenities

Fracking
Best damn fracking company goes public

Bakken economy:
State bank posts record profits (again)

The Hess AN-Gudbranson Wells

Updates


August 26, 2022: production data below updated; note two wells went over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.

May 8, 2020: production data below updated.

November 2, 2017: random update of the wells. 

The Permits 
The Hess AN-Gudbranson wells in Elm Tree oil field:
  • 33533, 2,444, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-8, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 395K 3/20; huge well;cum 597K 6/22;
  • 33532, 1,407, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-9, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 89K 3/20; cum 157K 6/22;
  • 33531, 5,872, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-10, Elm Tree, t10/1; cum 329K 3/20; see this post; cum 444K 6/22;
  • 33530, 1,672, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-11, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 59K 1/20; remains off line 3/20; cum 101K 6/22;
  • 33529, 2,054, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-12, Elm Tree, t10.18; cum 342K 3/20; cum 503K 6/22;
  • 33249, 1,748, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-LW-153-94-2215H-1, Elm Tree, t10/17; cum 383K 3/20; cum 496K 6/22;
  • 26924, 2,121, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-7, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 315K 3/20; cum 401K 6/22;
  • 26923, 2,145, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-6, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 134K 3/20; -- off line 8/18; back on line; cum 205K 6/22;
  • 26922, 2,173, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-5, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 346K 3/20; cum 420K 6/22;
  • 26921, 1,708, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-4, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 99K 3/20; -- off line 8/18; back on line 9/18; cum 133K 6/22;
  • 26920, 2,110, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-3, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 316K 3/20; off line most of 8/18; but now back on line for five days in 8/18; cum 392K 6/22;
  • 21312, 1,087, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-2, Elm Tree, 34 stages, 1.66 million lbs, t7/12; cum 395K 3/20; was off line for 15 days in 8/18; now back on line; cum 458K 6/22;
  • 19538, IA/1,152-->IAW/1,152, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-1, Elm Tree, Three Forks, 23 stages, 1 million lbs, t7/12; cum 363K 8/18; was off line for 15 days in 8/18 ... and remains off line (3/20); back on "A" list but no new production since 8/18; noted to be IAW, 10/20; cum 377K 6/22;
The Graphic:

Other Than One DUC Reported As Completed, A Fairly "Tame" Daily Activity Report -- May 5, 2017

Active rigs:


5/5/201705/05/201605/05/201505/05/201405/05/2013
Active Rigs492786186192

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Elm Tree (McKenzie)
  • Comments: permits for a 5-well pad in SESE 22-153-94; these are Gudbranson permits; there is already a 5-well pad in that section as well as two producing wells (in the same section); thus, this section will now have 12 wells sited therein
Eight permits renewed:
  • Slawson (5): five Jore Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Oasis (2): two Hanover Federal permits in Williams County
  • Petro-Hunt: one CMNU permit in McKenzie County
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 20087, 378, Enerplus, Hudson 13-21H, Mandaree, t3/17; cum 7K over 13 days;

Truly A Sad Story -- Activists Worried About Islands And Rising Sea Levels In 100 Years -- Meanwhile In Colorado .... May 5, 2017

Horrendous livestock losses in recent winter storm.
Seven foot high snow drifts buried cows and toppled acres of wheat crops in Prowers County and Baca County near the Kansas and Oklahoma borders, costing farmers millions of dollars.
There are no confirmed numbers yet, but it’s estimated as many as 10,000 cattle were killed in the rare spring storm.
The good news: we have a White House and cabinet that are sensitive to these issues. Proof? The prior administration ignored North Dakota's request for financial aid in providing law enforcement during the DAPL protests; this administration has already responded positively.

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The Tide Is Turning
Michigan Thumb: Thumbs Down On Wind
Michigan Thumbs Nose At Wind

This is the third or fourth state to re-consider the advisability of wind farms. Good for them.  Michigan Thumb voters reject wind farm proposals.