Director's Cut Is Out; Production Month-Over-Month Unchanged -- February, 2016, Data

See North Dakota natural gas production / milestone: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/directors-cut-is-out-february-2016-data.html.

See John Kemp's tweets: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/tweeting-now-from-john-kemp-regarding.html.

Note: as a reminder, the summary of the Director's Cut was significantly truncated beginning this calendar year. For those wishing to see trends over time, one will have to go back to summaries posted for previous calendar years.

See disclaimer below.

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, April 15, 2016, with February, 2016, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of February decreased by about 2.5%, almost a 30,000 bopd decrease compared to the previous month, January, 2016.

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.

Index of previous summaries of the Director's Cut is here.

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Director's Cut 

February 2016 Data

February, 2016, data is presented here.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $31.25
• the pricing of Bakken on the day the previous Director's Cut was posted: $26.25
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in March, 2016:  $26.62
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in February, 2016: $18.07
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in January, 2016: $21.13
• Fracklog: 907 (down from 945 in January)
• estimated number of inactive wells: 1,439
• Statewide flaring: 11% (down from 13% last month) -- this is really quite incredible, considering

Delta, crude oil production:  (needs to be updated)

• 1,118,333 - 1,122,462 =  4,129 bopd
• -4,100 / 1,122,100 = 0.4% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• February, 2016:  1,118,333 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 1,122,462
• December, 2015:1,152,696 (final, revised)
• November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• February, 2016:  13,012 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 13,141
• December, 2015: 13,128 (final revised; increase from last month)
• November, 2015: 13,100 (final revised, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• March, 2016: 56 drilling
• February, 2016: 70 drilling
• January, 2016: 78 drilling
• December, 2015: 95 (steep decline)
• November, 2015: 125
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• April 15, 2016: $31.25
• March 2016: $26.62
• January, 2016: $21.13
• February, 2016: $18.07
• February 17, 2016: $16.50 (post-boom low?)
• January, 2016: $21.13
• December, 2015: $27.57
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74

Rig count:

• Today: 29
• March: 32
• February: 40
• January, 2016: 52
• December: 64
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January, 2015: 160
• December, 2014: 181

Director's comments:  [see source] (needs to be updated)

The number of well completions fell significantly month-over-month: 71 (final) in January to 63 (preliminary) in February.

Well completions:

• February: 62 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 71 (final -- significant difference from preliminary figure of 82)
• December: 81 (final)
• November: 77 (significant difference from preliminary figure)
• October: 43 (final)
• September: 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Flaring:  (needs to be updated)

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in January, 2016: 87%

Will Carson Wentz End Up In Los Angeles? -- Bismarck Tribune -- April 15, 2016

From The Bismarck Tribune:

The Los Angeles Rams acquired the No. 1 overall pick from the Tennessee Titans, giving up six draft picks over the next two seasons in exchange for three choices.

General manager Les Snead and coach Jeff Fisher left little doubt the Rams will choose a quarterback with the top pick, hoping to end years of frustration at the most important position in football.

"This is a fun time, an exciting time," Fisher said Thursday at the team's temporary Southern California headquarters. "We still have work to do, (but) we're going to get the right guy, and everybody is going to like him, and we're going to go out and win some games."

Los Angeles has already held private workouts with California's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, generally considered the top two quarterback prospects in the field. Although Snead confirmed the Rams won't reveal their pick before draft night, the GM is clearly thrilled by the chance to add a potential franchise passer to an all-around solid roster lacking a centerpiece.

Tweeting Now, From John Kemp, Regarding North Dakota Oil Production; Down 4,000 BOPD In February; Within Margin Of Error -- Absolutely Flat/Steady/No Change Month-Over-Month -- April 15, 2016

I think the graph tends to exaggerate the reality. The "y" axis is "monthly oil production growth compound average percentage growth rate over previous 12 months." Okay.

US Will Add Almost 20 Gigawatts Of Gas-Fired Power Plant Capacity, 2016 - 2018 -- EIA

From the EIA:

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Note to the Granddaughters

The word chosen randomly for the day is "aleatory," as in "the aleatory character of drilling."

XOM Ships First Cargo Of Crude From US Since Ban Lifted -- April 15, 2016

Reuters/Rigzone is reporting:

Exxon Mobil is shipping a cargo of crude produced from its deepwater Julia field in the Gulf of Mexico to its refinery in Rotterdam, Netherlands, marking the first export of offshore oil to leave a U.S. port since a ban was lifted.

The crude came from initial well tests conducted on the Julia project, Aaron Stryk, a company spokesman, said in an emailed statement on Thursday.

The oil company is sending a modest 18,000 barrels of oil on a Panamax tanker, the PGC Marina.

Refiners typically do tests to see how new crudes will impact yields from making fuels.

While only a small volume, the cargo is the first known export of offshore oil from the United States since Congress lifted a ban last December.

Until now, all other shipments had been of light onshore oil.

The vessel departed from Gramercy, Louisiana, in early April and is expected to arrive in Rotterdam on April 19, according to the data. It was not clear whether Exxon would continue to export Julia crude, but the firm anticipates an initial production of 34,000 bopd following the startup of the field in the second quarter of this year. 

Initial testing on the Julia field, a joint venture between Norway's Statoil and Exxon Mobil located roughly 200 miles south of New Orleans, Louisiana, began in March.