Tweeting Now: A Man Killed By An Amtrak Train In Auburn, Washinton -- December 26, 2014

Tweeting right now:  Man dies after being struck by Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington, police say - @KING5Seattle

January 20, 2014: a man killed by an Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington.

April 15, 2013: a man killed by an Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington.

October 29, 2012: a man killed by an Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington. 

April 10, 2012: a man killed by an Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington.

July 7, 2008: a man killed by an Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington. 

March 10, 2008: a man killed by an Amtrak train in Auburn, Washington.

Saudis Are Losing Somewhere Between $106 Million / Day And $138 Million / Day By Quibbling Over 600,000 BOPD -- December 26, 2014

With all its cash reserves, this is no big deal at all for Saudi but it's an interesting data point, to say the least. Rigzone is reporting:

Saudi Arabia's Finance Ministry will discuss with the central bank its options for financing the large state budget deficit expected next year, and may cover some of the shortfall with borrowing.

Responding to the plunge of oil prices, the ministry announced on Thursday a 2015 budget plan which envisions a deficit of 145 billion riyals ($38.7 billion).

A ministry statement said the government could cover the deficit with its huge fiscal reserves, but [a Saudi official said] that borrowing might also be used. "There is also a chance to borrow at good rates."

$38.7 billion / 365 days =  $106 million / day.

Fitzsimmons said it was about $138 million / day. (If that link breaks, as I expect it will, here's the original post.)

The numbers ($106 million and $138 million) are in the same ball park. One has to assume Saudi Arabia is low-balling their deficit, and Fitzimmons might be a bit on the high side, not having access to all the data. Fitzsimmons, I would say, was pretty much on target.

By the way, this also permits one to calculate Saudi Arabia's "break-even" price that everyone seems to be talking about.

Demand In-Destruction -- December 26, 2014

When gasoline was approaching (and occasionally exceeded) $5.00/gallon, there was much talk about "demand destruction."

So, what's happening to gasoline consumption / demand destruction as the price of gasoline slides?

First, this spreadsheet at EIA. Some observations:

• the data is current through the end of 2013
• this is "gasoline supplied," not consumed, but one has to assume that most/all gasoline supplied was consumed
• it appears the record consumption was 3.389 billions of gallons of gasoline in 2007
• after 2007, US consumption decreased from that peak for any number of reasons
• for the most recent full year reported, 2013: 3.228 billion bbls

Now, to 2014, the weekly consumption (demand) for gasoline in the US, scroll to the very bottom of that page:

• the graph is AVERAGE; the spreadsheet below the graph is million bbls/day
• look at the graph first: for 2013, this time of year, about 8.75 million bbls/day, AVERAGE
• for 2014, in December, reaching 9.5 million bbls day (daily, spreadsheet)
• the trend has been rising every month since September (with one exception)
• the delta between 2013 and 2014 during the LOW driving season is widening
• I can't tell for sure, but it appears that we are now exceeding the record set on Memorial Day weekend and early June, 2014

Now look at the numbers:

• one year ago: 9.176 million bbls/day (spreadsheet)
• today: 9.518 million bbls/day (spreadsheet)
• 9.518 - 9.176= 0.342/9.176 = 3.7% increase year-over-year
• take the high point this month, 9.518 * 365 = 3.474 billion bbls annual rate
• 3.474 (current annual rate) - 3.228 (total consumed 2013)/3.228 = 7.6% increase
• until recently, the record amount of gasoline supplied was in 2007, at 3.389 billion for the year
• compare that with the current annual rate (during the LOW driving season): 3.474 billion

It's hard for me to believe that gasoline demand won't increase (all things being equal) by Memorial Day, 2015, for at least two reasons:

• lower price at the pump will drive more consumption
• US economy is improving (most recent GDP at an astounding 5% growth rate)

It would be telling and it would be ironic and it would be notable if US gasoline consumption hits a new all-time record in 2015, despite the CAFE standards, the slow economy, the EVs, the hybrids, the Teslas, and the shift to smaller cars.

For a 30-second sound bite: 8.75 million bbls/day of gasoline supplied in 2013 vs current 9.25 million bbls/day during the LOW driving season today.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that of all the metrics I follow, this one (US gasoline demand) will be one of the most interesting. My hunch is that we will set a new record for gasoline consumption by Memorial Day, 2015, if the economy keeps growing and the Saudis keep giving away their oil for $50/bbl. And despite the conclusions reached by the authors of that silly Bloomberg story, December, 11, 2014.

The record was 2007: 3.389 billion bbls for the year = 9.28 million bbls/day. Now, during the LOW driving season, 9.518 million bbls/day.

********************************

From another site:

Random Update Of Two Huge EOG Wayzetta Wells, Parshall Oil Field, December 26, 2014

26458, conf, EOG, Wayzetta 45-0311H, Parshall:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2014	38324	9982
9-2014	40065	5226
8-2014	42294	5134
7-2014	32508	3467

26216, conf, EOG, Wayzetta 43-0311H, Parshall:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2014	19577	255
9-2014	25235	170
8-2014	30932	2933
7-2014	33402	2572

Week 52: December 21, 2014 -- December 27, 2014

Operations
Several "high IP" wells reported
Four "high IP" wells reported
QEP with three huge Grail wells
Average production per well per day in North Dakota
MRO's high density pilots

Fracking
MRO re-fracking program; post here; post here; j#16778; #16772; #16686; #16626;

Natural gas
First well in Sleeping Giant comes off confidential status; three days to drill 1500 feet; on DRL status;

Bakken economy
Lighting for US Highway 85, State Highway 23 Corridor in Watford City area 
North Dakota, #1, population increase, 2014, year over year
North Dakota, #1, in job creation
North Dakota taxable sales and purchases, Dickinson story;
El Rancho Motel in Williston sold

Bakken 101
Permitting slump