Closing Out The Jamestown Fertilizer Poll -- September 5, 2014

Finally, after months, we can finally "pull" this poll: will the Jamestown fertilizer plant get built? It was announced this week that the promoters have said the $3 billion project will go forward. Results of the poll:

• likely: 65%
• unlikely: 35%

I will leave the poll up until I think of another poll to replace it.

*************************

From a long, long time ago ....

It's Not Fair, Lily Allen

Week 36: August 31, 2014 -- September 6, 2014

Operations
Random look at some "high-IP" wells
Some Halcon wells now up to one-million EURs
MRO to add additional rig in the Bakken by end of year
EOG reports another nice Wayzetta well; 124,000 bbls in less than 3 months
Data points from CLR's most recent presentation

Flaring
ONEOK may increase capacity at its garden Creek II natural gas processing plant

CBR
PSX to build new CBR terminal; at Palermo (east of Stanley)

Fracking
Lots of sand; high transportation costs
Cost of fracking using SlickWater
 
Bakken economy
Jamestown fertilizer plant to be built; $3 billion project
Watford City boom -- The Atlantic Monthly
"The" restaurant in Williston
Groundbreaking begins for Northstar Center, north of Williston
From boomtown to center of investment -- JLL
Running the numbers for a proposed natural gas power plant in Emmons County
Pembina Pipeine to build half-billion dollar propane terminal in Portland, OR

196 Active Rigs In North Dakota Going Into The Weekend -- September 6, 2014; Three "Typical" OXY USA Wells Reported

Active rigs:

The boom is over in the Bakken?

The record number of active rigs on this date in any year in the boom? 198

Today, the number of active rigs was 196.

9/5/2014	09/05/2013	09/05/2012	09/05/2011	09/05/2010
Active Rigs	196	186	190	198	146

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Four (4) producing wells were completed:

• 25779, 487, OXY USA, Vibe 1-26H1, Leaf Mountrain, t5/14; cum 19K 7/14;
• 26571, 428, American Eagle, Taylor 16-1E-163-102, Colgan, t3/14; cum 33K 7/14;
• 27848, 144, OXY USA, Dakota Meyer 2-19-18H-143-97, Crooked Creek, t7/14; cum 2K 7/14;
• 27924, 105, OXY USA,  Elroy Kadrmas 5-3-10H-143-96, Fayette, t7/14; cum 180 bbls; 7/14;

Four (4) new permits --

• Operators: Triangle USA Petroleum (4)
• Fields: Timber Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments: four more permits for Wisness wells all on the same pad, I believe

**************************

South Dakota School of Mines Using Shale Revolution to Teach Students

Rigzone is reporting:

In recent years, the shale revolution has allowed the United States to achieve a level of energy security that would have been thought impossible only a few years ago, while also boosting the labor force through the creation of thousands of direct and indirect jobs. In an effort to push the envelope on operating in shale formations, as well as to ensure that the science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) students of today are prepared for the energy careers of tomorrow, the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology (SD School of Mines) in Rapid City, South Dakota is using its experience with natural resources and its proximity to major shale formations surrounding the school to full advantage in its new Energy Resources Initiative, one of academia's first shale programs. 

**************************

Confused? Detached? Golfing?

Why in the world would SecDef allow 100 Americans flying out of Afghanistan be allowed to be put at risk flying over Iran? I'm sure a member of the pro-Obama cult can explain any number of unanswered questions. Reuters is reporting:

A charter aircraft flying from the U.S. airbase at Bagram in Afghanistan to Dubai was re-routed to Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Friday due to "a bureaucratic issue," a U.S. State Department official said.

"A Fly Dubai charter plane flying from Bagram Air Field to Dubai was re-routed to Bandar Abbas, Iran because of a bureaucratic issue today," the official said. 

"Contrary to press reports, this plane was not forced down by the Iranian military," the official added. "The issue appears to have been resolved and hopefully the plane will be able to take off soon."

I guess the short answer to the question why SecDef Hagel would allow this: "Because he can."

One should be happy that:

• aircrew and Iranian flight controllers were on same frequency
• there were no transmission glitches
• everyone was speaking a language that everyone understood
• the Iranians were not trigger happy (launching a missile)

And since, everyone is safe and sound, "what does it matter?"  -- SecState Hillary Clinton. And now, the Iranian "reset."

**************************

Meanwhile, the AP is reporting that "the IRS" says that the agency lost the e-mails of five (5) more employees. I guess every time the House gets close to finding the "smoking gun," the IRS loses those e-mails, also.  But as Hillary would say, "what does it matter?"

***************************

For the archives. NewJersey.com is reporting New Jersey creditworthiness downgraded again:

Wall Street analysts at Fitch Ratings today downgraded New Jersey's bond rating for the second time this year, citing the state's poor economic performance, Gov. Chris Christie's rosy revenue forecasts — which failed to materialize — and his decision to plug the resulting budget gap by cutting $2.4 billion in funding for the state's strained pension system.

Fitch said Christie's decision to cut the pension payments this year marked a "repudiation" of a bipartisan plan he signed to fix the beleaguered retirement system for public workers, which is underfunded by nearly $40 billion, according to state estimates.

Reposting -- This Really Is Huge, September 5, 2014; "Pauses Of 15 Years Zero Out Any So-Called Trends" -- NOAA

Updates

March 2, 2015: decision on where plastics plant to be located will be delayed. 

February 15, 2015: it is now being reported that the fertilizer plant to be built in Jamestown needs more water than Jamestown area can provide. Options are limited:

CHS tried to get permits to use water from aquifers around Jamestown. The State Water Commission, which evaluates the availability of water and issues permits, said many of the water rights for the area already had been allocated. 

Something seems a bit fishy; shouldn't this have been worked out by now?

Original Post

Just last week I made the comment:

If a new project in the Bakken is not followed by "-est" -- the biggest, the largest, -- it hardly makes news.

Then, this morning, Kent wrote:

"$3 billion here, $3 billion there." 

Remember, a single Bakken well costs upwards of $10 million. A 14-well pad, $150 million.
Two hundred wells/month in the Bakken. $2 billion/month just for the wells.

But this is what caught my eye and the eyes of others, today. It was a big enough story to make Yahoo!In-Play:

CHS Inc. to build fertilizer plant at Spiritwood, N.D.; plant to cost ~$3 bln and employ ~160-180 people: Co announced it will proceed with construction of a fertilizer manufacturing plant at Spiritwood, N.D.

• The CHS Board of Directors approved final plans for the ~$3 bln project at its September meeting. Groundbreaking will take place following completion of additional details, with the plant intended to be fully operational in the first half of calendar 2018. When complete, the plant will employ 160-180 people.
• The CHS fertilizer plant will produce more than 2,400 tons of ammonia daily which will be further converted to urea, UAN and Diesel Exhaust Fuel.

2018. I will be only three or four years older. Awesome.

**********************

Whatever Happened To Global Warming?

An op-ed in the WSJ:

On Sept. 23 the United Nations will host a party for world leaders in New York to pledge urgent action against climate change. Yet leaders from China, India and Germany have already announced that they won't attend the summit and others are likely to follow, leaving President Obama looking a bit lonely.

Could it be that they no longer regard it as an urgent threat that some time later in this century the air may get a bit warmer?

In effect, this is all that's left of the global-warming emergency the U.N. declared in its first report on the subject in 1990.

The U.N. no longer claims that there will be dangerous or rapid climate change in the next two decades.

Last September, between the second and final draft of its fifth assessment report, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change quietly downgraded the warming it expected in the 30 years following 1995, to about 0.5 degrees Celsius from 0.7 (or, in Fahrenheit, to about 0.9 degrees, from 1.3).

Even that is likely to be too high.

The climate-research establishment has finally admitted openly what skeptic scientists have been saying for nearly a decade: Global warming has stopped since shortly before this century began. 

Baraq O'Bama is going to be a bit lonely -- but mainstream media is going to use a lot of ink on this conference.

Might as well add this:

Two years before Mr. Whitehouse's article, climate scientists were already admitting in emails among themselves that there had been no warming since the late 1990s.

"The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998," wrote Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia in Britain in 2005.

He went on: "Okay it has but it is only seven years of data and it isn't statistically significant."

If the pause lasted 15 years, they conceded, then it would be so significant that it would invalidate the climate-change models upon which policy was being built.

A report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) written in 2008 made this clear: "The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more." [Read that again.]

Well, the pause has now lasted for 16, 19 or 26 years—depending on whether you choose the surface temperature record or one of two satellite records of the lower atmosphere. That's according to a new statistical calculation by Ross McKitrick, a professor of economics at the University of Guelph in Canada. 

*****************************

[The University of Guelph is consistently ranked as a top comprehensive university in Canada by Maclean's magazine, and given top marks for student satisfaction among medium-sized universities in Canada by The Globe and Mail. It has held these rankings with its reputation, innovative research-intensive programs, and lively campus life cited as particular strengths. The University of Guelph has also been ranked 50 among the top 100 universities under 50 years old by Times Higher Educaton. The university has a key focus on life science and has ranked 76-100 in the world by ARWU.]

Off The Net For Awhile -- Going To Go Read A BookBook

Experience The Power of a BookBook