Tuesday, July 15, 2014

July 15, 2014 -- Main Street / Wall Street; Miscellanous News From The Bakken And Elsewhere; OPEN BORDERS A Resounding Success --WND

Main Street

This is kind of interesting -- the linked article below -- the opening sentence says it all: "... overall retail sales increased far less than economists expected" and then the writer spends the rest of the article trying to tell us things are actually going quite well...

USA Today is reporting:
Overall retail sales increased 0.2% in June, far less than economists expected. But sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services jumped a better-than-expected 0.6%. Economists say that closely watched measure feeds more directly into economic growth.
Sales of general merchandise, clothing, sporting goods and non-store retail items all rose solidly. Also encouraging: retail sales for April and May were revised upward.
Still, sales so far this year are up 3.8% at an annual pace vs. 4.2% in all of 2013.
"It's just modest growth," Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist of Oxford Economics says of Tuesday's data. "It's not the breakout report."
Many economists expected consumers to spend more freely this year, driving a stronger recovery. Consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the economy. Higher household wealth — a result of a roaring stock market and rising home prices — and sharply reduced consumer debt were expected to fuel the increased outlays.
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Wall Street

Triangle Petroleum announces pricing of $450 mln offering of senior notes; increased from previously announced $350 mln due to high demand: aggregate principal amount of 6.75% senior unsecured notes due 2022. The Notes were sold at par. The size of the offering was increased to $450 mln from the previously announced $350 mln due to high demand.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you've read here or think you may have read here. 

Occidental Petro names Marshall D. Smith as Chief Financial Officer of California Resources: Following its separation from Occidental, California Resources Corporation will be an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on high-growth, high-return conventional and unconventional assets exclusively in California.

Dominion's subsidiary, Dominion Virginia Power, to install Northern Virginia's largest solar energy project to date at Prologis Concorde Distribution Center: Dominion Virginia Power will install more than 3,000 solar panels capable of generating more than 800 kilowatts of electricity -- enough to power nearly 200 homes -- at the Prologis (PLD) Concorde Distribution Center in Sterling, Va. The panels will be installed on the rooftops of two adjacent buildings on its campus and will cover nearly 102,000 square feet.

Trading at new highs: BK, CSX, INTC, KOG, MSFT, WLL.

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Hoping The Stars Align

Philly.com is reporting:
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is set to rule this summer on Dominion's application to export up to 770 million cubic feet of natural gas a day from Maryland, the closest export outlet for producers in Pennsylvania's booming Marcellus Shale region.
"Thanks to technological advances, the U.S. has enough natural gas to meet not only America's consumer demand, but also to export some supply in the form of LNG without significant impacts on domestic prices," Diane Leopold, president of Dominion Energy, told a House Foreign Affairs Committee panel in May.
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Chinese Economy Expanding

At least their economy expanded... more than one can say about the US economy, 1Q14. Reuters is reporting:
Asian stocks held stubbornly steady on Wednesday after China reported economic growth that was just ahead of market expectations, drawing a sigh of relief from investors rather than outright applause. China's economy expanded by 2.0 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, taking annual growth to 7.5 percent. "
The US economy "collapsed" (their word, not mine) in 1Q14.

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Developing Mexico's New Shale Oil Fields

The Dallas Morning Herald is reporting:
Pemex officials believe shale has the potential to provide Mexico with more oil and gas than the country has produced since it first struck oil in the early 20th century. “Mexico has the sixth largest gas shale fields in the world. And you’re all welcome to come join the exploration opportunities,” Emilio Lozoya, Pemex chief executive officer, told an energy conference in Houston in March.
Developing those resources would require up to $1.2 trillion in capital spending, according to an analysis earlier this year by Goldman Sachs. By way of comparison, the world’s four largest publicly traded oil companies spent less than $180 billion worldwide last year.
The hope at the highest echelons of Mexican politics and business is that development of the energy reserves will not only boost government revenue but expand the country’s industrial and manufacturing economy far beyond anything envisioned 20 years ago, when the North American Free Trade Agreement was enacted.
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ObamaCare: A Washington Success -- Paul Krugman

The Weekly Standard is reporting:
In March 2010, Obamacare was about to be voted upon by the House of Representatives, and the Democrats were in the process of deciding whether to ignore public opinion at their peril.  At that time, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that Obamacare would cost $938 billion over a decade and would reduce the number of uninsured people by 19 million as of 2014 (with a reduction of 1 million prior to 2014 and 18 million in 2014 alone).  Unimpressed, the American people overwhelmingly opposed the intrusive overhaul — with 20 of 21 polls taken that month showing it to be unpopular, most of them by double digits. The Democrats willfully passed Obamacare anyway and lost 63 House seats that November. 
Two years later, the Supreme Court declared Obamacare’s coercive Medicaid expansion to be unconstitutional as written, and the CBO adjusted its projection for the number of uninsured accordingly. 
The CBO projected that Obamacare would reduce the number of uninsured by 14 million as of 2014 (2 million before 2014 and 12 million in 2014 alone), at a 10-year cost of $1.677 trillion — or $739 billion more than the 2010 projection.  (This February, the CBO projected that Obamacare’s 10-year cost would eclipse $2 trillion.)
The op-ed goes on, and then this:
Yet Paul Krugman says that “health reform is — gasp! — working.”  Only in Washington could something that fails to hit even half of its original target be considered a gasp-inducing success. 
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OPEN BORDERS Policy a Resounding Success -- WND

Of the tens of thousands of communities across the United States, only a handful of communities -- perhaps a dozen or less -- are protesting the relocation of immigrants streaming across the border. The vast majority of US communities have not reacted and are probably ready and waiting with OPEN ARMS to accept these future US citizens. WND is reporting only eleven cities that have concerns (and in one city it's just the "south side").

It appears that this is a two-step program:
  • OPEN BORDERS: entering the US
  • OPEN ARMS: relocation  
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"Most Expensive Music Video Produced At The Time" -- Fleetwood Mac, Opus Collection

Gypsy, Fleetwood Mac

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Pulling A Bergdahl

Whenever Hamas and Israel have reached this point in the past, the US has stepped in and convinced Israel it was in its best interests to "stop." This time the US is silent.

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Never Mind

By the way, all those kids streaming across the border under the president's OPEN BORDERS policy has little, if anything, to do with Central American violence. Another inconvenient truth. 

Runaway/Crime Story, Del Shannon


July 15, 2014: Back Up To 194 Active Rigs; Twenty-Four (24) New Permits; Sinclair Reports A Nice Well Wednesday

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 26814, 1,247, Sinclair, Martens 5-6XH, Sanish, t5/14; cum 16K 5/14;
  • 27067, drl, Hess, EN-KMJ Uran-154-93-2734H-5, Robinson Lake, no production data,
  • 27097, drl, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-6, Manitou,
  • 27252, 356, CLR, Greene 1-3H1, Ellisville, t4/14; cum 14K 5/14;
Active rigs:


7/15/201407/15/201307/15/201207/15/201107/15/2010
Active Rigs194186215178132

Twenty-four (24) new permits --
  • Operators: Zavanna (7), Hess (5), Oasis (4), Whiting (3), WPX (2), Murex, KOG, XTO
  • Fields: Stony Creek (Williams), Ellsworth (McKenzie), New HOm e(Williams), Ray (Williams), Reunion Bay (Dunn), Sanish (Mountrail), Musta (Divide), Truax (Williams), Long Creek (Williams), Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Producing wells completed:
  • 26063, 2,538, MRO, Swift Eagle USA 31-15TFH, Moccasin Creek, t6/14; cum --
  • 26929, 133, Wayzetta 148-0311H, Parshall, t6/14; cum --
  • 26228, 1,097, SM Energy, Wilson Federal 1X-20H, Charlson, t2/14; cum 70K 5/14;
  • 26592, 387, SM Energy, Paul 3-4HS, Alexandria, t3/14; cum 26K 5/14;
  • 26374, 992, SM Energy, Loraine 1X-20H, Charlson, t2/14; cum 65K 5/14;
  • 25332, 1,994, XTO, Martin Federal 21X-33E, Cedar Coulee, a Bakken well, t6/14; cum --

Historical Look At Taxable Sales And Purchases, North Dakota -- Some Idle Chatter -- July 15, 2014

Updates

Later, 5:33 p.m. PDT: I stand corrected. I am wrong with some of what I wrote in the original post; take that into consideration when you read the original post. A reader tells me that much of the "stuff" used to drill a well is, in fact, taxable. The reader wrote:
Just read your post on taxable sales and purchases.  You are probably right that most of pipe, sand, and ceramic are bought out of state but ND has a Sales and Use tax which means you must pay a use tax on materials used in ND.  To verify that this could apply to oil wells I found this document:
http://www.nd.gov/ndic/ogrp/info/g-015-033-faq.pdf

Here is an excerpt:
Does the state collect “use tax” or “sales tax” on all the steel and equipment being used?  
Sales tax is paid on everything that is permanently installed in or on the well. With booming oil activity, the sales tax revenues in western North Dakota cities have been growing at a record pace each quarter.
A huge thank-you to the reader for catching this; something (among many things) I did not know.

Original Post
 
For the archives, from The Williston Wire:

-------------------------- -Fargo ----- Bismarck ----- Williston ------- Grand Forks -- Minot ---  Dickinson

Some idle chatter.

My hunch is that much of the "stuff" used to drill wells is not bought in Williston. Rigs, pipe, sand, ceramic, comes from out-of-state. Much of the house-building was done with pre-manufactured frames also coming from out-of-state (Colorado?). As folks move into their homes, they will be maintaining their homes, furnishing their homes, and refurnishing their homes. Unlike many areas of the country, existing homeowners and new homeowners have money to spend.

Not only do the folks in Williston have money to spend, they have LOTS of money to spend. Williams County leads the state in average annual salary: $78,390
  • North Dakota average annual salary: $48,000
  • National average annual salary: $49,000
That's quite a delta between $80,000 and $50,000.

Without a Menard's, Home Depot, Target, Nieman Marcus in Williston, folks are driving to Bismarck, Minot, and Dickinson to do their shopping. Okay -- some exaggeration there, but one gets the point.

I think there are two important data points that are not reflected in the current taxable sales and purchases going forward:
  • how much is being spent by Willistonites going to Minot
  • how much will be spent by Willistonites simply because there are "more things" and "more places" to spend their money as these retailers are established
This is way out of my area of expertise, but my hunch is that more money stays in the area maintaining and servicing wells than drilling wells. Again, except for personnel costs, I assume most costs associated with drilling a well are "out-of-state" -- the big expense being the rig, pipe, sand, ceramic. However, on a day-to-day basis, maintaining and servicing existing wells would be local: gasoline/diesel for transportation to/from the site; meals on the road by the servicing crews; local supplies for minor repairs, etc.

With regard to drilling, all indications are that they will continue to drill about 200 new wells/month for the next (fill in the blank here) years. And, I know it's hard to believe, but each new well being drilled does not mean an old well is plugged and abandoned. Nope. The two hundred new wells are added to the existing 5,000 wells [yes, a small number of wells are plugged and abandoned every year, but the rate of such abandonment is probably decreasing as the economics (higher prices for oil) improve].

I think we agreed that the minimum amount of money being spent to maintain an existing well is at least $5,000/month. Unlike drilling a well, my hunch is most of that money (except perhaps for workover rigs) is spent locally.

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Cherry Picking

1Q10:
  • Fargo: $460K
  • Bismarck: $277K
  • Williston: $216K
  • Minot: $200K
1Q11:
  • Fargo: $481K
  • Bismarck: $302K
  • Williston: $447K
  • Minot: $255K
1Q12:
  • Fargo: $541K
  • Bismarck: $386K
  • Williston: $791K
  • Minot: $357K
1Q13:
  • Fargo: $543K
  • Bismarck: $393K
  • Williston: $790K
  • Minot: $322K
1Q14 (city, taxable sales for the quarter, percent change from 1Q10):
  • Fargo: $563K (22.4%)
  • Bismarck: $385K (40.0%)
  • Williston: $779K (261.0%)
  • Minot: $309K (54.5%)
There are a number of observations that one could make from those data points. First, there seems to be a new normal:
  • Fargo: $550K
  • Bismarck: $400K
  • Williston: $750K
  • Minot: $325K 
There is nothing to suggest that trend will not continue, all things being equal.

The data I don't have is the split between "direct oil-related taxable sales" and "other." Let's be sexist here, and call the "direct oil-related taxable sales" those dollar amounts associated with "dad" and the "other" sales those associated with "mom." I assume the huge jump in taxable sales in Williston from
 1Q10 and 1Q12 (and that's a huge jump) was due to "dad." Taxable sales attributable to "dad" should start to level out as the oil industry matures in the Williston Basin.

On the other hand, the taxable sales attributable to "mom" should start to increase as more folks move into their own homes. As retail opportunities expand in Williston, "mom" will do more of her Neiman Marcus shopping in Williston rather than driving to Minot. I doubt we will see huge increases in the near term, but all things being equal, it's very possible "mom" will spend more of her dollars in Williston than in Minot.

Quick: what retail sector might show the most growth over the next five years in Williston? I would not be a bit surprised if it might not be .... drum roll ... drum roll ... automobiles and trucks. Two huge data points:
  • the huge delta between the average salary in Williston and the rest of North Dakota
  • as more and more families move in, more and more adult teenagers -- and hey, where are they building the new high school? Hint: not in walking distance for anyone except perhaps one housing subdivision on the northwest side of town. How many high school students do you know that enjoy taking the bus to school? LOL.
See this story, and this story. 
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Dickinson

A special note about Dickinson. Of the six cities listed below, one could argue that one of the six has not plateaued to the same extent as the other five: that would be Dickinson:

1Q10: $87K
1Q11: $131K
1Q12: $217K
1Q13: $249K
1Q14: $310K (256% change from 1Q10). 

It appears that Dickinson, unlike the other five cities, may not have reached its "new normal." With the MDU-Calumet refinery and the potential of the Tyler, Dickinson might be the surprise story over the next five years.  It's possible Williston, Watford City, and Dickinson still have a significant way to go to reach their "new normals," but Dickinson may be the most exciting in terms of new growth.
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Geography

Say what you want, but the delta between $750K (Williston) and $325 (Minot) is not trivial. I challenge a person who has never been to North Dakota before to spend one day in Williston and one day in Minot and tell me which city is "bigger." Hint: it's not Williston. Minot is THE big city between the geographic center of North America (Rugby, North Dakota) and Havre, Montana, a distance of 500 miles.

Between Regina, Saskatchewan (Canada) and Rapid City, a distance of almost a thousand miles, there are only two cities of any size: Williston ($750K) and Dickinson ($300K -- about the same as Minot).

For Investors Only -- July 15, 2014

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here. I'm posting this for reasons other than investment advice. 

The price of oil has fallen fairly quickly the last few days and has now broken below $100 (WTI crude).

Shares in Bakken operators have similarly fallen back, and some quite significantly.

Following the WLL-KOG announcement, Bret Jensen over at Seeking Alpha suggested Oasis and Emerald could be takeover targets.

From the blog, a quick look at Emerald:

Emerald Oil (VOG acquires Emerald Oil, announced July 11, 2012) (chronological; most recent data at top)
Small, small operator.

Enterprise value about $470 million.

$470 million / 70,000 acres = $6,700/acre in some pretty nice areas in the Bakken.

Whiting Reports High Background Gas Units At the Mork Farm Wells In Pleasant Hill Oil Field

Simply idle chatter:
  • 26023, 2,213, Whiting,  Mork Farm 24-8-2H, Pleasant Hill, no frack data; gas averaged 4,139 units and peaked at 9,995 units; t6/14; cum --
  • 26024, 2,532, Whiting, Mork Farm 24-8H, Pleasant Hill, no frack data, gas as high as 5,761 units, t6/14; cum --
  • 28089, 1,856, Whiting, Mork Trust 21-17-7H, Pleasant Hill, no frack data, background gas averaged 2,587 units and peaked at 8,609 units; t6/14; cum --