Thursday, February 20, 2014

Warren Buffett Getting Ahead Of The CBR Challenge

Reuters is reporting:
BNSF Railway Co plans to buy its own fleet of up to 5,000 new crude oil tank cars with safety features that exceed the latest industry standards, the company, a unit of investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc, said on Thursday.
The unusual step by one of the largest U.S. railroads aims to further the industry's push for safer movement of crude by rail after several recent accidents, including one involving a BNSF train in North Dakota in December.
The company, a major mover of crude by rail throughout the United States, plans to seek bids from railcar makers for up to 5,000 new tank cars with thicker walls and ends, increased protection of safety and pressure valves, and other features that go beyond industry standards adopted two years ago.
The news sent shares of several U.S. railcar makers higher.

If The Teachers Are Smart, They Would Support Fracking To Help Pay Their Pension

This is incredible: a $71 billion shortfall for California teachers pensions.

$71 billion. And the fund shortfall is growing by $22 million every day.

The governor is looking to put this "crisis" off for another year. Perhaps a vibrant oil and gas industry could provide the royalties necessary to meet the shortfall. The Los Angeles Times is reporting:
The same could be said of the California State Teachers' Retirement System, or CalSTRS, which Ehnes has run for more than a decade. Today, the pension fund is one of the biggest financial problems in a state with more than its share of money woes.
Gov. Jerry Brown and legislative leaders are pledging to repair and replenish the $181.1-billion retirement system that is supposed to finance more than 800,000 retirements for public school teachers, administrators and community college instructors. Hearings on possible solutions began in the Capitol on Wednesday.
The second-largest public pension fund in the country, after California's primary pension system for public employees, it faces a $71-billion shortfall that worsens by $22 million every day, according to pension officials.

For Warmists Or Deniers, One Has To Admit This Is One Humdinger Of A Winter -- Update From The Twin Cities

I don't know about the rest of the warmists, deniers, and agnostics out there, but this is quite a story. The StarTribune is reporting:
The winter storm pushing its way into Minnesota on Thursday snarled the evening commute, closed afternoon and evening activities at schools, canceled some evening college classes and set snow emergencies in motion throughout the metro area.
By the time it passes, the storm could leave the most significant snowfall of the season.
The National Weather Service (NWS) predicted amounts of 10 inches in the core of the metro and deeper totals in northeast and southeast suburbs.
As the storm picked up steam late in the afternoon, near white-out conditions were reported near Mankato while heavier snow began to fall in parts of the metro area. Transportation officials advised no travel in the southwest and south central part of the state, including Blue Earth, Faribault, LeSueur and, Waseca and Watonwan counties.
By 3:45 p.m., Minneapolis and St. Paul had declared a snow emergency, which will take effect at 9 p.m. Thursday, and the NWS reported 3 inches of snow had fallen in Mounds View.
“Intense snowfall commencing,” the NWS said in a statement, which also noted snow with thunder in southern Minnesota.
The Weather Service added that the storm’s target, with the metro area as the bull’s-eye, should be ready for 1 to 2 inches of snow an hour, strong winds and sharply reduced visibility for motorists.
The Kennedy clan should probably fly out to the Twin Cities the first chance they get; this may be the last time their children and their grandchildren ever see snow.

Random Note On The Parshall Oil Field

Recently there had been six rigs in the northern half of the Parshall oil field, all outside the reservation.

Today, there are seven active rigs in the Parhsall oil field. Five of them are still in the northern half, outside the reservation, but two have moved inside the reservation:
  • 27042, drl, sits on a three-well pad; this is the first of the three to be drilled; 10-152-90; EOG, Parshall 46-1004H,
  • 27158, drl, sits on a three-well pad; this is the first of the three to be drilled; 22-152-90; EOG, Parshall 47-2226H,
  • Located in the section between these two three-well pads, is another three well pad, one of which, is:
27035, loc, EOG, Parshall 60-1509H,
The nearest completed well to all three pads is probably:
  • 16774, 1,433, EOG, Roger 1-15H, Parshall a single section, t3/08; cum 336K 12/13; still producing 1600 bbls of oil per month; no flaring.
A recent reader sent a comment suggesting that EOG would be moving back and forth, in and out of the reservation with infill drilling.

Are They Joking? The Price Of Oil Drops 39 Cents And It's Blamed On A Chinese Manufacturing Index

On February 9, 2014, I wrote, regarding the price of oil:
The major factors affecting the price of oil:

  • Mideast politics and hostilities (Syria, Iran, Israel); sabre-rattling
  • strength of the dollar
  • US economy six months out
  • Chinese manufacturing index
  • global economy six months out
Of the five, I think the US economy six months out as telegraphed by the Fed's actions is the most important. On a day-to-day basis, all things being equal (e.g., no report of a war breaking out in the Mideast, it is the strength of the dollar).
So, today it was "rewarding" to see this headline over at Yahoo!Finance: oil below $103 as Chinese factory activity drops. Are they joking? Oil has been quietly and slowly melting up from the low 90's to solidly over $100. It was close to $104 yesterday and today closed slightly below $103. But to say this was due to the Chinese manufacturing report seem ludicrous. Here's the lede:
The price of oil slipped below $103 a barrel Thursday after a report indicated that manufacturing in China, the world's second-biggest economy, shrank again in February.
U.S. crude for March delivery fell 39 cents to close at $102.92 a barrel in New York on the last day of trading for the contract. Crude for April delivery fell 9 cents to close at $102.75.
Oil prices fell after a monthly survey by HSBC found that China's manufacturing, a driver of the global economy, contracted for a second straight month.
The HSBC purchasing managers' index also declined to the lowest since July, a sign of the extended slowdown in China as leaders in Beijing try to clamp down on an investment boom and refocus the economy on domestic consumption.
"Results from this private sector survey have deteriorated for four months now, which indicates an unambiguous trend of domestic growth deceleration," Societe Generale economist Wei Yao said in a report.
May be the 39-cent drop on a $103-bbl or oil is due to the Chinese manufacturing report, but I doubt it's much more than just the background noise of trading. If the Chinese manufacturing report was really that significant, we should have seen a healthier pull back in the price of oil. My hunch is the reporter spoke to "his" inside source, asked the question, and the oil export simply said it had to do with the China manufacturing index. It sounded good, and the reporter went with it.