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Updates
August 8, 2026: read the Ford article at the original post, and then read this one. Link here. This makes a very, very difficult case for EVs any time soon. Pure EVs look "dead." Hybrids are the future and they are "fake" EVs. They improve the mileage for individuals but don't do much for the earth. EV makers are banking on surviving the Trump years and coming back with a vengeance with a more progressive view. It's interesting: for the EV folks they might have been better off had Trump won that second consecutive term ... Biden's presidency just gave Trump a second chance ... pretty ironic.
Now, with AI sucking up all the electricity, it's going to be a very, very hard sell to convince folks that electricity prices will drop, making EVs economical again.
As I write that, I'm getting mixed messages. On the one hand, we are being gold that there won't be enough electricity to go around, to meet all needs, because of AI, and now we have Ford going down the back-to-the-EV-future" EV road.
The situation is testing longstanding data that shows when people go electric, most stay electric. A February study from J.D. Power showed that 96% of polled EV owners say they would consider purchasing or leasing another—but that outcome is contingent on having options in the EV market.
Nationally, second-quarter new EV sales and leases were down 20.5% year-over-year, according to Kelley Blue Book.
“There is defection from that EV market,” said Ivan Drury, an Edmunds automotive analyst. “I think the one biggest problem—it is a mental hurdle to say, ‘Man, I used to be paying $200 a month. Now you guys want $500?’”
Ahead of the $7,500 tax credit’s expiration in September 2025, dealers were eager to get the cars off their lots as fast as possible. Average monthly lease payments for EVs hit a low of $538 in July 2025, according to data from Edmunds. Some dealerships offered lease deals for EVs with monthly payments of less than $100.
As of June, average monthly lease payments for EVs have risen to $707, compared with an average monthly payment of $607 for a non-EV, according to Edmunds data.
Original Post
Ford EV: this will generate a lot of headlines but it cannot possible generate a lot of profit. Selling an EV for less than $30K.
Hunch: the total "drive-off-the-lot" cost will be closer to $40K than $30K.
Bookmark this for January, 2028.
