Thursday, February 22, 2024

Essay On EVs -- Part 1 -- February 22, 2024

Locator: 46876EVS.

Part 2 here.

This is Part 1.

Mercedes: link here. Just think, if Mercedes, et al, source their lithium from China, their EVs won't qualify for tax credits.



Ferrari: you can do the research, but my hunch is that Ferrari isn't having a stellar year based on EVs, but rather conventional ICEs. Their business is about making fast cars, making money, and not keeping Greta happy.



Rolls Royce:

Ford, Stelllantis, GM: they've all walked back their EV plans. And profits are surging. But look how much they're spending on lithium. Just think, if GM, et al, source their lithium from China, their EVs won't qualify for tax credits.

VW:

Tesla: recently slashed prices on old 2023 models; can't get them sold without slashing prices (speaks volumes); they need to move them, 2024 production models starting to be delivered.

Facts / factoids / observations:

  • EVs are luxury vehicles
  • EVs have been around for a long time and  still struggling;
    • Tesla
      • forgetting about the Roadster, the first Tesla was introduced in 2009
      • three models, not including the rusting Cybertruck, as of 2024
      • three models over fifteen years; prices slashed
  • first adopters have finished adopting
  • automakers are stepping back with regard to EVs

The question is "why?" Why have automakers stepped back from EVs?

Two reasons:

  • folks aren't buying them; and,
  • the margins suck (in fact, most American EVs are being sold at a loss

So, auto manufacturers have two challenges:

  • get folks to buy their cars; and,
  • increase their margins.

Fact:

  • when one is talking margins in the automobile business one is talking $50K+ cars / pickups; and preferably $75K
  • so, we can spend a lot of time talking cost, margins, supply chain, China lithium, etc, but that doesn't interest me
  • what interests me is the second question: other than price, how are auto manufacturers going to get Americans to buy EVs (not as their third car, or even their second car, but their first car and only car(s)?

Why aren't Americans -- other than price -- not buying EVs?

This is what's interesting. No one wants to say the real answer out loud so they make up all these other reasons.

Reasons:

  • range anxiety
  • short range
  • too long to fully charge
    • 30 minutes for a full charge when "on the road" or overnight when home
  • lack of infrastructure: charging points few and far between; when one finds a charging point, a risk of a waiting line; a risk that the charging point is inoperable

So, we can go through a litany of similar reasons why Americans aren't buying EVs, but they're not "reasons," they're excuses.

Excuses:

The Phil LeBeaus of the world and the auto CEOs of the world and EV apologists have a long list of "reasons" why EVs aren't being bought by Americans, but they're simply "excuses."

Even if the range issues and the price issues and the infrastructure issues were all resolved overnight, Americans would not buy EVs to any meaningful degree.

How do I know that?

Look at the stories above regarding Rolls Royce, Ferrari, Mercedes Benz.

If money was to be made in EVs, these manufacturers would be marketing them. Their customers can afford two, three, four or more ICE vehicles and drive their luxury EVs when and where they want -- local and within the 250-mile range.

The fact is, even the rich and famous don't like EVs. And therein likes the problem.

Enough for now. I'll complete this later, but I think folks can connect the dots from here.

But to help those who can't connect the dots, let's say Taylor Swift started an advertising campaign to convince folks not to buy EVs .... 

And then this: imagine a salesman trying to explain charging to a prospective buyer.

But this post just blows me away:

******************************************
Understanding EV Charging

Re-posting.

Locator: 45415B. 

 Updates

December 10, 2023: F-150 Lightning update.

December 10, 2023: EV chargers -- nice update.

August 27, 2023: tech writer for The WSJ buys an EV for the family. The "buying experience" here at "YouTube." Exactly why EVs will not catch on for a long, long time. 

Original Post

I know very little about cars or car engines, but when shopping for a new car, all I need to know is mpg. One number. Okay, two: city / highway.
  • I never ask about range
  • I never ask about the kind of pump I need to use
I know nothing about electricity and nothing about EVs, but when shopping for a new car, I need to know:
  • type of connector
  • type of charging station 
  • the size of the tire which affects range
  • range on a fully charged battery (see below)
    • a very cold day
    • a “normal” day
    • a very hot day
  • level charging station: level 1, 2, or 3
  • how long does it take to fully charge the vehicle
  • how do I know when it is optimally charged? What is the optimal charging range?
  • advertised range vs actual range (this is more relevant than you will ever realize until after you’ve bought the car);
This is how I understand it (right, wrong, or indifferent) now. This is how I would explain it to Sophia, subject to editing, correcting, and adding more information as I get a better understanding and as technology, batteries, charging stations evolve over time.

The links:
This is the most important graphic. It doesn't require any understanding of anything; just keep the graphic in you mind. 


What to note in the graph:
  • the left side of the graph/chart: 
  • the charging stations you see in parking lots around town
  • measured in kW (you don't even have to know what a kW is -- just know that's how EV charging station ports are "rated;
  • in the example: one charging port is rated at 7.5 kW; the other charting port is rated at 60 kW
  • some existing ports are now rated higher than 60 kW
  • as time goes on, the ratings will increase in size (power)the right side of the chart:
    • this is your car, your EV
    • when you talk to your dealer or to you friend, you will ask about / talk about the "size of the battery" or the "battery's energy" -- or whatever the phrase is
    • if you don't have much money, the EV you buy will have a battery with a lower energy rating, such as 15 kWh in this example;
    • if you are rich, you will be able to afford an EV with a "bigger battery" -- such as 120 kWh in this example
    • like most things in life (but not golf scores), bigger is better
    • buy the "biggest" EV you can afford
Charging: in the graph above -- 
  • when you pull into a charging station, the greater the rating of the charging station, in this case 7.5 vs 56, the faster you can charge your EV
  • so, why doesn't everyone just plug into the the charging port / station with the higher / highest rating, 56 in this case
  • you can't plug your cheap little EV into a charging station that has too much power for your little pathetic EV
  • so, in the example above, if your pathetic little EV is rated at 15 kWh, it cannot plug into a charging unit with a higher rating. 
  • so, in the example above, you can only plug your 15-kWh-rated pathetic little EV into the 7.5-kW-rated charging port / station
And that's all you need to know.

Except for this, in the graph above: the small print.
In the graphic above, the bigger car rated at 120kWh pulls up to the charging unit rated at 60kW. The car takes a charge for two hours. Two (2) hrs x 60 kW = 120 kWh which is what the bigger car in the graph above is rated. 
So, a "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh can be fully charged in two hours if plugged into a charger rated at 60 kW.

If that "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh pulls into a charging station rated at 7.5 kW, it will take .... 120 / 7.5  = 16 hours to fully charge.

Okay, so that's all you need to know.

But there's a lot more one can know if one is interested.

We shouldn't have to say this but an EV rated at 120 kWH can "last longer" (longer range, all things being equal) than a pathetic little EV rated at 15 kWh.
 
*******************************
Charging Stations
Level 1 vs level 2 vs level 3 charging stations
 
Level 1
  • 120 volts — AC
  • your garage
  • absolutely worthless
Level 2
  • 240 volts — AC
  • can be installed in your garage
  • In the Target parking lot
  • at 60 kW, two hours to “achieve” 120 kWh, so four hours to fully charge a soccer mom’s SUV
Level 3
  • 480 volts — DC
  • not at your house, ever

************************
Connectors
 
Connector type: non-Tesla
  • J1772: level 1 and level 2
  • CCS1: level 3
NCAS for all Tesla models: link here.

***************************
Miscellaneous

Other facts / factoids / opinions / comments:
  • hybrids are fake EVs -- they are the worst thing one can buy in the "EV family" but Ford is now transitioning to hybrids ... more on that later. Ford will sell a lot of hybrids, as well as Toyota will sell a lot of hybrids. That's good for the car companies but bad for you; really bad for the roads (but you won't care about that); and really, really, bad for the environment (again, something you won't care about. You will be happy just knowing that you are part of the EV community).
  • Ford is "going all out" with hybrids. Link here.
  • charging stations prone to “breaking down”; generally, outside of big cities, if the charging station you visit is “out of order,” you are really “out of luck.” If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.
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