Friday, December 8, 2023

Jobs Market Remains Stronger Than Ever — This Is Amazing -- Goldilocks Again — Unemployment Unexpectedly Drops — November, 2023

Locator: 46254JOBS. 

Payrolls change — up 199K vs 190K forecast. Top line drops from 3.9% to 3.7% unemployment. Labor force participation down. Long-term unemployment numbers down.

JOLTS: combined with JOLTS of a couple days ago, a "Goldilocks" number.

Most of this: returning strike workers. Nothing to see here. LOL. Steve Liesman.

Really sad: everyone wants increased unemployment. What’s the plural of doofus?

Counter-intuitive: excellent numbers for investors.

Labor force participation: decreases. At 62.8%. On the surface, doesn’t dovetail with dropping unemployment.

Fly in the ointment for the Fed: wage increase at 0.4%. This one’’s hard to decipher. Hotter but not particularly concerning. 

Goldilocks: this is a “Goldilocks” number. CNBC talking head analysis -- not mine!

Personal investing: haven’t yet decided — add to either my MSFT position or my TSLA position. I’ll update decision at 9:00 a.m. CT.

CNBC: my favorite analyst is bullish; likes these numbers.

U-1 unemployment: link here — truly amazing when one thinks about this.

  • unadjusted: drops from 1.4 to 1.2;
  • adjusted: drops from 1.4 to 1.3.

Bottom line: everyone that wants a job, has a job; on track for “soft landing.” One needs to know the definition of “soft landing.”

Now, Cramer:

  • let’s have six months of no rate increases; let’s make sure; these numbers today are very, very good;
  • “we’re crushing / killing inflation”
  • "take recession off the table"
  • "analysts still talking recession -- can't shake their paranoia"
  • price of gasoline / crude oil way down
  • credit card delinquency concern is way overblown
  • Black Friday: began in October — will last through Saturday before Christmas. Way? Amazon’s same day delivery. Supply chain disruptions resolved. Pent-up demand. Consumers driving the economy.
  • Cramer's big story: AVGO (Broadcom). The numbers are crazy. 

Parting shot: literally every ticker I follow is higher in early trading than BRK-B today, which in early trading is absolutely flat.  The exceptions are those tickers that have had incredible runs in the past seven days.

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