Peter Zeihan On The Middle East - October 20, 2023

Locator: 45830ZEIHAN.

Before we get started: that story about the destruction of a hospital in Gaza by a wayward missile -- overblown. First of all, it hit the parking lot, and not the hospital itself. Yes, lots of casualties but not nearly what first reports were suggesting.

Now, back to regular programming.

Link here.

Peter Zeihan this morning.

We've all been following the events unfolding in Israel and Gaza, and questions of this triggering a larger conflict are starting to bubble up. To be blunt, this isn't the start of WWIII, but let me explain why.

Of the countries in this region, there are no powers that (a) have the capacity or (b) have any interest in throwing themselves into the mix of things. The more significant concern for many is the possibility of a bigger player getting drawn into this.

The US has one thing on its mind - get our people out - everything is second to that. China might entertain the idea of involvement, but it simply doesn't have the military capacity in this region. And Russia, let's be honest...they have nothing to spare right now.

This region lacks a broad geopolitical significance that may otherwise entice external involvement, which means this conflict will remain an isolated issue for Hamas, Gaza and Israel.

From October 17, 2023, Iran is pissed.:

Original Post 

The former and the current president had / have something in common. They both wanted to disengage in the Middle East. 

Exhibit A: Afghanistan hasty withdrawal by Biden; plans put in place by his predecessor.

Iran's goal: become dominant player in the gulf. 

Hamas?

Screwed up everything for Iran. 

The US Navy can't get back to the gulf fast enough. 

Iran has to be really, really pissed.

One US a/c group already there;

The US second a/c group en route. [By the way, the Israeli's delay will allow the IKE to get there in time to see the fireworks. It amazes me that folks are asking why the IDF is waiting to go into northern Gaza. It also goes without saying that this provides more time to get refugees out of harm's way. And, oh by the way, a a lot of medical capability in an a/c group. Lots of blood for transfusions on those aircraft carriers.]

And, the cherry on top of that sundae: the US Marines will move north through the Strait before Iran can close it to shut down the trade of oil.

The US won't get any ground sites for land-based fighters this go-around -- except possibly Kuwait. Turkey has aligned itself with the Palestinians, against Israel, and Saudi Arabia and Iran are now talking. A new world order.

US Navy / US Marines have the edge over the USAF if this war goes regional.

This is what Iran sees, link here: 

The US Marines are there for two reasons:

• provide air support to Israel if ground invasion into Gaza begins to go sideways;
• prevent the invasion from going regional --

Regional? Euphemism for Hezbollah.

• Euphemism for Hezbollah? Say what? Quick! What other "entity" is going to attack Israel?
• Turkey? Saudi? Egypt? LOL.
• Iran? Hardly -- and at very, very great risk. Israelis would love opportunity to take out nuclear sites.
• Hamas. They're done.*
• Hezbollah. That's it. That's the only regional player that could get involved.
• Hezbollah: a political entity, not a military entity, though it does have a limited military capacity;
• so, for diplomats: "regional" = Hezbollah.