Saturday, September 17, 2022

Russia Is A Gas Station On An Island -- September 17, 2022

Updates

Later, 7:31 p.m CT: Russia's whole southern border is on fire.

Original Post

Russia, three data points.

The first data point:

At 24%, the US is five times greater than #2, Japan at 5%. And Japan is the poster-child for no-growth but known for great sushi. Also known for placing nuclear reactors on fault lines. 

  • among the free:
    • after Japan, it's just one big drop off the cliff:
    • Germany: 4%, much of which will now be spent on Ukrainian refugees;
    • only two at 3%: UK and France
    • at 2%: Italy, Canada, Australia, Spain, South Korea, and Brazil
  • among the "not free":
    • China: 18% -- again, this is the share of global GDP by country
    • China may overtake the US, but probably won't move into the "blue" column
    • one at 2%: Russia -- which is now out of date; tea leaves suggest Russia's GDP has been cut in half, and, if so, Russia is at 1% -- less than most countries in western Europe, even Italy;
    • at 1%: Iran:

The second data point: global sanctions on Russia will prevent that country from participating in global projects even if they had the GDP to do so.

The third data point, this data point from today

  • China has signed a deal to construct a railroad through Krygyzstan and Uzbekistan that would bypass sanctions-hit Russia.
  • Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and China signed the agreement on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
  • Uzbekistan has embraced the project to improve transport and trade links from Central Asia to Turkey and onward to Europe, on a route that bypasses internationally isolated Russia.

Prior to Putin's war, Russia was nothing more than a gas station.

After Ukraine, Russia is a gas station on an island.

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