Thursday, April 14, 2022

Notes From All Over -- April 14, 2022

 NY Times WORDL today:

Wordle 299 3/6

⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜
⬜⬜🟨🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Days supply, crude oil: increases from 26 days to 26.7 days; link here;

  • and crude oil surges;

EVs margins: the other day I noted that EV margins were marginal at best; much worse than ICE

  • who agrees that EV margins are not where they need to be? link here.
  • spoiler alert: Ford CEO
  • again, I ask the question: if EVs are such a great deal for automobile manufacturers why are they all partnering with each other
  • spoiler alert: hedging their bet; same reason oil companies have joint venture when drilling multi-billion-dollar plays; this is not rocket-science

PBR goes ex-dividend today, chart:

  • P/E: 5
  • yield: 18.6%
  • 52-week high: $16.09
  • yesterday's close: $15.96

US crude oil build of 9 million bbls: an anomaly.

Amazon: sold 40-year notes at 4.1% pre-tax interest rate; link.

  • for every $1.00 it borrowed, it will still be paying 4.1 cents of interest in 40 years;
  • what will the FCF yield be in 2062 on the $1.00 in proceeds that Amazon used to buyback shares?
  • massive accretion over time

Wuhan flu: Shanghai bans private cars on roads to stem Covid surge.

  • I can't make this up; link here.
  • maybe "law" won't apply to those wearing masks and driving an EV;

Wuhan flu: great lock down graphics, link here;

Natural gas graphic on which utilities and stakeholders rely, link here:

  • natural gas is currently more expensive that any point in any EIA scenario for the next 30 years:
  • predictions, natural gas price at these scenarios:
    • $6.90, low oil and gas supply;
    • $3.90, high oil price
    • $3.90, low oil price
    • $3.00, high oil and gas supply
  • natural gas today: $7.00
  • can't make this stuff up;

What's wrong with this picture? This graphic.

  • nothing
  • the dot.com frenzy was just early;
  • the internet fundamentally changed the world;
    • there have never been better scalable businesses that created so much value for so many customers:
      • Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, Netflix

Texas: natural gas power demand hits 11-year low, link here:

  • wind power
  • high natural gas prices

GasBuddy has jumped the shark; note at except for cash, the price changes were inconsequential:
and even the "cash price: was inconsequential:

  • regular, cash: from $4.63 to $4.55 (whoo-hoo; a 1.7% drop on almost 5-handle gasoline)
  • regular credit: $4.69, no change
  • plus: $5.19, no change
  • V-Power: $5.69, no change
  • diesel: $4.99, no changee
  • has GasBuddy become a tool of the Biden administration;
  • what a doofus;

NATO: new members, Sweden and Finland; link here.

  • meanwhile, diplomats still looking to crossing "t's" and dotting "i's" on Ukraine's application
  • can't make this stuff up

Graph of the day, the Putin Price Hike, link here.

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