Updates
October 16, 2020: see first link. A reader provides the answer to my question (see below) regarding the huge decline in US distillate fuel inventories:
US distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 307,000 barrels per day to 4,175,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 258,000 barrels per day to 1,289,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 70,000 barrels per day to 160,000 barrels per day ...
... but even after this week's big inventory decrease, US distillate supplies at the end of the week were still 33.2% above the 123,501,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 11th, 2019.
Production was at a 3-year-low; largest draw since February 2003.
Original Post
Wow: maybe I'm misreading this, but if I'm reading this correctly, the big story this week in the EIA weekly petroleum report is the huge decline in distillate fuel inventories.
I can only imagine this was the result of increased exports, but I don't know. Without an increase in exports, it's hard for me to believe that "production" plus "demand" was enough to drop inventories by that much. Normally we seen a range of +3 million to -3 million with a more narrow range of + 1.0 million bbls being the norm (?). In this report, week-over-week, the decline was a whopping 7.2 million bbls. Harvesting season? [Update: see first comment.]
EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:
- US crude oil in storage: at 489.1 million bbls, about 11% above an already-fat five-year average;
- US crude oil in storage decreased: decreased by 3.8 million bbls from the previous week
- refiners operating at 75.1% of their operable capacity
- imports: are averaging 15% less than the same four-week period last year
Re-balancing:
|
Week |
Date of Report= |
Change |
Million Bbls Storage |
Over/under 5-year average |
|
Week 0 |
November 21, 2018 |
4.9 |
446.9 |
|
|
Week 1 |
November 28, 2018 |
3.6 |
450.5 |
|
|
Week 2 |
December 6, 2018 |
-7.3 |
443.2 |
|
|
Week 3 |
December 12, 2018 |
-1.2 |
442.0 |
|
|
Week 4 |
December 19, 2018 |
-0.5 |
441.5 |
|
|
Week 5 |
December 28, 2018 |
0.0 |
441.4 |
|
|
Week 84 |
July 15, 2020 |
-7.5 |
531.7 |
17% |
|
Week 85 |
July 22, 2020 |
4.9 |
536.6 |
19% |
|
Week 86 |
July 29, 2020 |
-10.6 |
526.0 |
17% |
|
Week 87 |
August 5, 2020 |
-7.4 |
518.6 |
16% |
|
Week 93 |
September 16, 2020 |
-4.4 |
496.0 |
14% |
|
Week 94 |
September 23, 2020 |
-1.6 |
494.4 |
13% |
|
Week 95 |
September 30, 2020 |
-2.0 |
492.4 |
|
|
Week 96 |
October 7, 2020 |
0.5 |
492.9 |
12% |
|
Week 97 |
October 15, 2020 |
-3.8 |
489.1 |
11% |
Distillate fuel:
|
Distillate Fuel Inventories |
|
|
|
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change in Millions |
Relative to 5-Yr Avg |
|
Week 1 |
August 26, 2020 |
1.40 |
24.0% |
|
Week 2 |
September 2, 2020 |
-1.70 |
23.0% |
|
Week 3 |
September 10, 2020 |
-1.70 |
20.0% |
|
Week 4 |
September 16, 2020 |
3.50 |
22.0% |
|
Week 5 |
September 23, 2020 |
-3.40 |
21.0% |
|
Week 6 |
September 30, 2020 |
-3.20 |
21.0% |
|
Week 7 |
October 7, 2020 |
-1.00 |
23.0% |
|
Week 8 |
October 15, 2020 |
-7.20 |
19.0% |
Crude oil imports:
|
Crude Oil Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
Week (week-over-week) |
Date of Report |
Raw Data, millions of bbls |
Change (millions of bbls) |
Four-week period comparison |
|
Week 0 |
March 11, 2029 |
6.4 |
0.174 |
|
|
Week 1 |
March 18, 2020 |
6.5 |
0.127 |
|
|
Week 2 |
March 25, 2020 |
6.1 |
-0.422 |
|
|
Week 13 |
June 10, 2020 |
6.4 |
0.000 |
-13.300% |
|
Week 22 |
August 12, 2020 |
5.6 |
-0.389 |
-20.400% |
|
Week 23 |
August 19, 2020 |
5.7 |
0.109 |
-21.700% |
|
Week 24 |
August 26, 2020 |
5.9 |
0.185 |
-16.900% |
|
Week 25 |
September 2, 2020 |
4.9 |
-1.000 |
-20.200% |
|
Week 26 |
September 10, 2020 |
5.4 |
0.500 |
-17.900% |
|
Week 27 |
September 16, 2020 |
5.0 |
-0.416 |
-20.100% |
|
Week 28 |
September 23, 2020 |
5.2 |
0.160 |
-24.200% |
|
Week 29 |
September 30, 2020 |
5.1 |
0.045 |
-21.600% |
|
Week 30 |
October 7, 2020 |
5.7 |
0.600 |
-18.900% |
|
Week 31 |
October 15, 2020 |
5.3 |
-0.447 |
-15.400% |
Jet fuel delivered:
|
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week |
|
|
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change |
|
Week 0 |
3/7/2020 |
-12.80% |
|
Week 1 |
3/14/2020 |
-12.60% |
|
Week 2 |
3/21/2020 |
-8.90% |
|
Week 3 |
3/28/2020 |
-16.40% |
|
Week 4 |
4/4/2020 |
-0.22% |
|
Week 5 |
4/11/2020 |
-39.70% |
|
Week 6 |
4/18/2020 |
-53.60% |
|
Week 7 |
4/24/2020 |
-61.60% |
|
Week 8 |
5/1/2020 |
-66.60% |
|
Week 9 |
5/8/2020 |
-68.50% |
|
Week 10 |
5/15/2020 |
-67.90% |
|
Week 11 |
May 22, 2020 |
-66.60% |
|
Week 20 |
July 29, 2020 |
-42.10% |
|
Week 21 |
August 5, 2020 |
-40.90% |
|
Week 22 |
August 12, 2020 |
-45.80% |
|
Week 23 |
August 19, 2020 |
-47.60% |
|
Week 24 |
August 26, 2020 |
-45.70% |
|
Week 29 |
September 30, 2020 |
-46.10% |
|
Week 30 |
October 7, 2020 |
-47.50% |
|
Week 31 |
October 15, 2020 |
-41.80% |
in answer to your initial question,
ReplyDelete"our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 307,000 barrels per day to 4,175,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 258,000 barrels per day to 1,289,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 70,000 barrels per day to 160,000 barrels per day....but even after this week's big inventory decrease, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were still 33.2% above the 123,501,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 11th, 2019"
production was at 3 year low; largest draw since February 2003..
Domestic demand? folks finally buying heating oil in anticipation of higher prices this winter? Agricultural demand?
Deleteoh, i don't know...i imagine there's some pre-winter stockpiling of heat oil going on, both on the part of distributors and consumers...we've had a few pretty cold spells, which reminds people what's ahead..
ReplyDeleteJust thinking out loud ...
Delete