Thursday, May 28, 2020

I'm Thinking Of Taking The Day Off -- If So, I Will Update The Bakken Later This Afternoon -- Early Evening -- May 28, 2020

EIA, weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil inventories increased by a whopping 7.9 million bbls; consistent with yesterday's API data;
  • US crude oil inventories now stand at 534.4 million bbls, about 13% above the already-fat five-year average for this time of the year
  • and, look at this: imported surged -- up 2.0 million bbls per day from the previous week -- that's the equivalent of one VLCC unloading every day on the west coast
  • even so, imports averaged about 16.5% less than the same four-week period last year, but that's going to change if the current trend continues; currently, imports are averaging about 6 million bpd;
  • US refiners are operating at 71.3% capacity -- a bit higher than last week
  • jet fuel supplied remains down about 70% compared with same four-week period last year
Thank goodness for the transparency of the internet. Despite all the political posturing, hand-wringing, and bragging about America's energy independence, with a glut of US oil, not only did US oil imports increase, they surged, and went from "negative" to extremely positive.

Despite all this, WTI and Brent slumped slightly, about 2/3rds of a percent; OPEC basket slumped 2.4%, suggesting that traders know that Saudi still has a boatload (pun intended) of VLCCs and ULCCs offshore China and the US.

Most troubling -- crude oil imports -- daily, huge swing in delta, and four week percentage change:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%


And then look where the imports are coming from, and with one exception increased across the board (Brazil was the exception). If I did the math correctly:
  • Saudi Arabian oil imports: increased by almost 250%
  • Iraqi oil imports: increased by almost 220%
  • Mexican oil imports: increased by 23%
  • Canada oil imports: increased by 11%


If the numbers aren't enough to get your attention, maybe the graph will. Saudi crude oil imports (into the US):



Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4
Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6
Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6
Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6
Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2
Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5
Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5
Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%

*********************** 
US Weekly Crude Oil Supply In Days

Link here: dropped slightly, from 42.0 days to 41.3 days. I love the false precision. It's fairly easy to measure the amount of crude oil in storage -- at least, the source of the data should be relatively consistent. However, demand is, at best, an educated guess.

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