Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Huge Volatility In Most Recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Report; Largest Change I've Seen Since Blogging Began More Than Ten Years Ago -- April 8, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil in storage increased by 15.2 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.4 million bbls, about 2% above the five-year average, and the five-year average has been "fat" -- in fact, the five-year average has been re-set;
  • refineries are operating at only 75.6% capacity -- this is incredible; largest drop I've ever seen, week-over-week; and the lowest operating capacity I've ever seen;
  • oil imports averaged less than 6 million bopd (actual: 5.9 million bbls); down by 173,000 bopd
  • oil imports decreased 8.4% over the past four weeks compared to similar period one year ago
  • total products delivered down over 10% (four-week period)
  • jet fuel down an incredible 22% (four-week period)
  • WTI after this data released: $24.41 -- it held, remarkable;
Re-balancing: current week at 484.4 is 8.4% higher than week 0 at 446.9;
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 58
January 3, 2020
-11.5
429.9
Week 59
January 8, 2020
1.2
431.1
Week 60
January 15, 2020
-2.5
428.5
Week 61
January 23, 2020
-0.4
428.1
Week 62
January 29, 2020
3.5
431.7
Week 63
February 5, 2020
3.4
435.0
Week 64
February 12, 2020
7.5
442.5
Week 65
February 20, 2020
0.4
442.9
Week 66
February 26, 2020
0.5
443.3
Week 67
March 4, 2020
0.8
444.1
Week 68
March 11, 2020
7.7
451.8
Week 68
March 18, 2020
2.0
453.7
Week 69
March 25, 2020
1.6
455.4
Week 70
April 1, 2020
13.8
469.2
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2020
-12.80%
Week 1
March 18, 2020
-12.6%
Week 2
March 25, 2020
-8.9%
Week 3
April 1, 2020
-16.4%
Week 4
April 8, 2020
22.0%

US crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports



Week
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174
Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127
Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422
Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070
Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

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The Literature Page

I have not found this compare/contrast in the literature / internet yet, but I assume if I tried hard enough, it might be there somewhere. But this is my two cents worth and it provides a great basis for an essay if the granddaughters are ever required to right an essay / thesis about the novel.

6 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Fleeting thought: might we be seeing a tectonic shift in the global economy? Is this a huge re-set? If this becomes the new basis, we could see an incredible investing opportunity going forward.

      Delete
  2. two trillion for infrastructure, which stocks would be no brainers?

    ReplyDelete
  3. just getting to this because the EIA's html spreadsheets hadn't been updated until a few hour ago...so, of note, an all time record build of crude, & the 2nd highest build of gasoline stores on record despite gasoline output being at a 35 year low because gasoline demand was at a record low (demand records only go back to '91)... plus the lowest refinery utilization rate since September 2008 (hurricane Ike), & the fewest barrels refined since the week of February 18, 2011..

    also, crude supplies are now 40.1% higher than the prior 5 year (2010 - 2014) average of crude oil stocks as of the first Friday in April

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. I want to post it to make sure I don't lose it. I will come back to it later. I was just ready to bring Sophia home to her family.

      Delete

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