Wednesday, June 12, 2019

US Crude Oil Inventory Build: 2.2 Million Bbls -- June 12, 2019

EIA's weekly petroleum report:
  • US crude oil weekly build: 2.2 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: 485.5 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories now at a whopping 8% above the five-year average (and the five-year average has been increasing over the past year or so) [Later: see first comment: in case you were wondering, our crude oil inventories were 38.5% higher than the prior 5 year (2009 - 2013) average of crude oil stocks for the first week of June..]
  • refiners: operating at 93.2% capacity; trending upward; as good as I've seen in quite a few months
  • imports: 7.6 million bopd, down by 316,000 bopd from the previous week
  • imports: over the past four weeks, imports have averaged about 9% less than same four-week period last year (interesting)
  • jet fuel supplied: still shows an increase year-over-year
US days of crude oil supply: 28 days. Trending higher Max has been 31 days; 28 days is a very high number. All the US needs is 21 days; very, very bullish for oil traders if the supply were less than 20 days. In other words, a 28-day supply of crude oil in the US ... at the high end.

WTI: after the report was released, the "board" shows WTI trading down 2.78%; down $1.48, trading at $51.79. In fact WTI was at $51.78 before the report came out. So, either the movers and shakes already knew the likely numbers that would be reported, or the report didn't change things. 

The market: the Dow is flat, up 2 points right now (9:49 a.m. CT, June 12, 2019).

Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8
Week 27
May 30, 2019
-0.3
476.5
Week 28
June 5, 2019
6.8
483.3
Week 29
June 12, 2019
2.2
485.5

4 comments:

  1. in case you were wondering, our crude oil inventories were 38.5% higher than the prior 5 year (2009 - 2013) average of crude oil stocks for the first week of June..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. I was wondering, but didn't know how to go about and find that number. But I knew that current inventories are well ahead of our historical average.

      Delete
    2. oh, it's a bit tedious, but not that hard...just take this week's stocks divided by the average of the same week from 2009 to 2013...
      485,470 / ((365,179 + 358,610 + 343,491 + 342,596 + 343,186) / 5) =
      pop that into a google search box, and google tells you it's 1.38463, or a 38.5% increase...

      Delete
    3. Thank you. By the way, that "google search box" is quite remarkable -- more than just for search -- I had forgotten how much I used to use for calculations.. and then forgot for some reason....

      Delete

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