Thursday, January 24, 2019

US Crude Oil Inventories Increase By A Whopping 8 Million Bbls -- One Of The Biggest Increases In Recent Memory -- WTI? Flat -- January 24, 2019

US weekly crude oil inventories: link here.
  • US crude oil inventories increased by a whopping 8 million bbls (exactly as predicted late last night)
  • WTI: drops a penny
  • US crude oil inventories now at 445.0 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories now 9% above the five-year average; and the five-year average has been rising for the past several years -- so going back to historical norms, we are well above the 9%
Does anything else in the report matter?
  • gasoline production increased a bit last week but still under 10 million bpd
  • distillate production decreased a bit last week but still above 5 million bpd
  • oil imports increased slightly -- as would be expected with all that light WTI
  • refineries are operating at 92.9% capacity; on the low side; not operating "flat out"
  • everything else "white noise"
Re-balancing to 400 million bbls in storage:

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
A long, long time
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Won’t happen in my life time
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Won’t happen i my life time







0.3



From oilprice after the report was released:


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Natural Gas Fill Rate / Withdrawal



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Later: Oilprice Reports WTI Tumbles 
After US Crude Oil Inventories Surge

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