Thursday, October 25, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 5, T+68 -- October 25, 2018

Fitzsimmons: COP hits a grand slam.
  • ConocoPhillips' Q3 EPS report was proof positive its strategic plan is working to perfection
  • led by the company's leading Eagle Ford position, it earned over half-a-billion bucks in the Lower 48 segment
  • the Alaska segment also was very strong, delivering net income of $427 million, up more than 4x yoy
  • COP is one of the highest quality global E&P companies in the energy sector and is a free cash flow cow at current oil and gas prices.
Original Post

First slide below, from the COP 3Q18 presentation
  • Adjusted earnings y-o-y --
    • 3Q18: 1,595 million
    • 3Q17: 198 million
    • ratio: 8x
  • On a per share basis, y-o-y --
    • 3Q18: $1.36
    • 3Q17: $0.16
    • ratio: 8.5x
And yet oilprice.com says:
ConocoPhillips reported on Thursday a fourfold jump in its third-quarter earnings, easily beating analyst expectations, as higher oil prices helped the U.S. firm to book higher realized prices across all commodities. ConocoPhillips posted third-quarter earnings of US$1.9 billion, or US$1.59 per share, up from US$400 million, or US$0.34 per share, earnings for the third quarter of 2017. Adjusted earnings—excluding special items —came in at US$1.6 billion, or US$1.36 per share, jumping from adjusted earnings of US$200 million, or US$0.16 per share, in Q3 2017.
Apparently, many, many ways to report things -- "four-fold = 8x"?

COP: earnings call today. Slides here. Fourteen slides.




ISO New England: stayed well below $100 this morning. But it's going to be interesting to watch when we have first "cold snap" in Boston.

The gap widens, link here. Natural gas is up 1.43% today.


I still think the "natural gas story" could be the energy story of the year (calendar year 2018) -- the real question is whether it will be US regional, US national, regional/global, or global. US regions to watch: New England. Outside the US: British Columbia along the coast.

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