Wednesday, September 12, 2018

For Newbies: The Predictability Of The Bakken; The Incredible Success Rate -- September 12, 2018

I'm running through the 18XXX wells tonight, and I come across this one.

Wow, spud in 2010, and has production numbers like this.


Obviously a re-frack.

So, I look at the operator and the field. Absolutely predictable.


MRO re-fracking wells in the Bailey oil field.

Absolutely predictable.

Checking FracFocus. Yes, re-fracked 8/11/17 - 8/25/17.

I wonder, what kind of frack? A small to moderate one: 5.9 million gallons of water; 89% water by weight; 10% sand by weight. So, MRO gets another nice well with a small-to-moderate re-frack.

And something else.

They "never" screw up.

I almost never see a well that is not successfully re-fracked.

These guys are good. Not just MRO but all the operators in the Bakken.

Two miles down; two miles horizontal; hit a seam forty feet thick; know within inches where the well bore is; and successfully complete a well 99.999% of the time, it seems.

What's the production look like from the re-frack? Absolutely incredible:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201831138891376315464107508938740
BAKKEN6-20183014242143351527910417928550
BAKKEN5-201831168381683294701065275581839
BAKKEN4-2018241523515196132101004126935591
BAKKEN3-201825154771552118044107688433538
BAKKEN2-2018261735617282186111169263843322
BAKKEN1-2018292382023889304121704113573759
BAKKEN12-2017222085220816246121432182823699
BAKKEN11-2017251654716593187781193389811047
BAKKEN10-20173128177281083475519296136322465
BAKKEN9-20171616166162031421165011288706
BAKKEN8-20170000000

How does that compare to the original frack back in 2010?

BAKKEN6-2011303597375510671843163430
BAKKEN5-2011313355347092716421334122
BAKKEN4-20113047304722143216811359142
BAKKEN3-2011293956372014923009245
BAKKEN2-201128771697926300462
BAKKEN1-2011311707183536219260
BAKKEN12-20102614451384283175280
BAKKEN11-2010302042212436218660
BAKKEN10-201044402357101790
BAKKEN9-2010118447410600
BAKKEN8-201020258921367105023820

And, then this: there are literally tens of thousands of wells that were drilled between 2007 and 2012 that need to be re-fracked.

When folks talk about drilling the Bakken for the next 30 years, they are talking about new wells. The re-working, re-fracks, etc., will carry them another generation (or two).

By the way, MRO re-fracked the other well, a Repp well, #16753, in this same drilling unit; same success. Only two wells in this drilling unit but producing like it has four.

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