Thursday, December 28, 2017

Re-Balancing Now Down To 28 Weeks. The Weekly Petroleum Report -- December 28, 2017; Gasoline Demand Jumps

Data points:
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 million bbls (elsewhere it was said that this was more than expected) -- now in the middle of the average range for this time of the year -- this is the first time this comment has been made in quite some time
  • refinery operating capacity: a nice jump -- nearing 96% (reported: 95.7%)
  • gasoline production increased, now at 10.2 million bopd
  • distillate fuel production also increased, now at 5.5 million bopd
  • gasoline inventories actually decreased, but distillate inventories increased
  • here's the "gasoline demand" graphic --

    Link here.

Re-balancing:

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
46
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27
Week 19
September 7, 2017
-4.6
462.4
32
Week 20
September 13, 2017
-5.9
468.2
39
Week 21
September 20, 2017
-4.6
472.8
46
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46
Week 23
October 4, 2017
6.0
465.0
41
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37
Week 26
October 25, 2017
-0.9
457.3
39
Week 27
November 1, 2017
2.4
454.9
38
Week 28
November 8, 2017
-2.2
457.1
42
Week 29
November 15, 2017
1.9
459.0
43
Week 30
November 22, 2017
1.9
457.1
42
Week 31
November 29, 2017
3.4
453.7
41
Week 32
December 6, 2017
5.6
448.1
37
Week 33
December 13, 2017
5.1
443.0
36
Week 34
December 20, 2017
6.5
436.5
30
Week 35
December 28, 2017
4.6
431.9
28

Re-balancing projections are based on returning to 350 million bbls in storage (not including SPR) and starting from May 3, 2017. If the re-balancing were to go to 400 million bbls then re-balancing would project out to only eleven (11) more weeks.

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