Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Re-Balancing Drops To 36 Weeks; Might Be Lower -- December 13, 2017

EIA crude oil inventories, for week ending December 8, 2017:

  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.1 million bbls; down to 443 million bbls
  • refineries operated at 93.4% capacity, pretty much unchanged
  • imports actually increased slightly week-over-week
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Re-Balancing

Re-balancing drops to 36 weeks:

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
51
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27
Week 19
September 7, 2017
-4.6
462.4
32
Week 20
September 13, 2017
-5.9
468.2
39
Week 21
September 20, 2017
-4.6
472.8
46
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46
Week 23
October 4, 2017
6.0
465.0
41
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37
Week 26
October 25, 2017
-0.9
457.3
39
Week 27
November 1, 2017
2.4
454.9
38
Week 28
November 8, 2017
-2.2
457.1
42
Week 29
November 15, 2017
1.9
459.0
43
Week 30
November 22, 2017
1.9
457.1
42
Week 31
November 29, 2017
3.4
453.7
41
Week 32
December 6, 2017
5.6
448.1
37
Week 33
December 13, 2017
5.1
443.0
36


I base the "re-balancing" on the historical average of around 350 million bbls of US crude oil in inventory (not counting the SPR). That puts "re-balancing" out to 36 weeks. However, if one were to raise the "350 million bbls" to "400 million bbls" the re-balancing would drop to 17 weeks. Very interesting (assuming the math is correct).

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