Saturday, September 24, 2016

Week 38: September 18, 2016 -- September 24, 2016

I've been traveling since Tuesday this past week, cross-country, and haven't done much with the blog. This will continue for the next week. Bear with me.

For me, I think the big story was the Lynn Helms update. Three new numbers got my attention. "New" Bakken wells compared with "old" Bakken wells:
  • IPs up from 1,100 bopd to 1,500 bopd
  • Bakken wells to produce five years longer than "old"Bakken wells (from 30 years to 35 years)
  • "new" Bakken wells to have EURs 25% greater than "old" Bakken wells
Internationally, all eyes are on the upcoming OPEC non-meeting. It looks more and more like the Saudis and the Iranians are coming closer together on a deal. They will agree to disagree, and then have a non-meeting to prepare for a meeting to discuss the agenda for a real meeting at which they will make a lot of proclamations, and life will go on. You know, as I write that, OPEC is beginning to "feel" a lot like the Federal Reserve. The analysts "hang on" every word, every rumor, and talking heads (which I never see) all provide their own opinions, saying in three minute interviews that:
  • the price of oil might go up (Goldman Sachs on Tuesdays and Fridays)
  • the price of oil might go down (Godman Sachs on Monday, Wednesdays, and Thursdays)
  • OPEC is irrelevant (Cramer)
  • OPEC is relevant but not like "before" (Cramer)
  • Saudi Arabia controls the price of oil, but the Bakken is the swing "state" (Pickens)
  • the Bakken is dead (everyone)
  • oil will be in a trading range of $40 to $50 unless it breaks out to spike, or slumps on bad economic news and goes back to $30 (The MillionDollarWay)
And, meanwhile, we will spend another two to three months talking about whether the Fed will raise rates a quarter of a percent which will impact the market for two weeks, and then be forgotten.

Operations
Richard Zeits' update; and, here

CBR
RBN Energy had a great update on CBR
Statoil with 55 "pooling" cases in Williams County on the agenda for October
BR reported some incredibly nice Veeder wells; more to come

Pipelines
Dakota Access Pipeline issue which I pretty much ignore
Obama approves natural gas pipelines to provide energy for US companies moving to Mexico; kills pipelines that would benefit America's midcontinent
Warren Buffett owns 7th largest natural gas pipeline in the US

Bakken Economy
Air park east of Williston moves forward 
North Dakota's Legacy Fund: $3.6 billion; more than enough to cover law enforcement at Standing Rock

Miscellaneous
Alaska: LNG by rail 
The Encana update
Just how big is the Bakken?

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