Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Choking Back? -- March 4, 2015

For newbies. I'm seeing this all over the Bakken. Generally speaking, on big wells, the second and third months (or the first and second full month of production are huge, and rising; the decline does not start until the third or fourth full month of production and although it can be significant, is generally not this extreme). In addition, most new wells are on-line the full month (30 days / 31 days). It was unusual -- when oil was priced at $100/bbl -- for a big well like this to go off-line this fast (to 8 days in January, 2015) and produce so little. The specific well is not important. 

Production profile for a well that comes off confidential list today:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20158147116413289258902589
BAKKEN12-2014265216543712836508605086
BAKKEN11-2014266888669014173794307943
BAKKEN10-2014237179788513000631306313
BAKKEN9-2014271394512985331751901801901


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Bad Decision

LOL. I rode my bike to Starbucks today. When I left this morning, the temperature was temperate and there was only a bit of mist. Now, rain is pouring down and the weather forecast suggests it will last all morning. Gonna be a very wet ride home. I must have fallen for that global warming hoax today -- thinking it was going to be warm and sunny all day -- that's what the Agore Weather Channel said.

Someone told me long ago, there's a calm before the storm,
I know, it's been coming for some time --

Have You Ever Seen The Rain, CCR

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