Choking Back? -- March 4, 2015

For newbies. I'm seeing this all over the Bakken. Generally speaking, on big wells, the second and third months (or the first and second full month of production are huge, and rising; the decline does not start until the third or fourth full month of production and although it can be significant, is generally not this extreme). In addition, most new wells are on-line the full month (30 days / 31 days). It was unusual -- when oil was priced at $100/bbl -- for a big well like this to go off-line this fast (to 8 days in January, 2015) and produce so little. The specific well is not important. 

Production profile for a well that comes off confidential list today:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2015	8	1471	1641	3289	2589	0	2589
BAKKEN	12-2014	26	5216	5437	12836	5086	0	5086
BAKKEN	11-2014	26	6888	6690	14173	7943	0	7943
BAKKEN	10-2014	23	7179	7885	13000	6313	0	6313
BAKKEN	9-2014	27	13945	12985	33175	19018	0	1901

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Bad Decision

LOL. I rode my bike to Starbucks today. When I left this morning, the temperature was temperate and there was only a bit of mist. Now, rain is pouring down and the weather forecast suggests it will last all morning. Gonna be a very wet ride home. I must have fallen for that global warming hoax today -- thinking it was going to be warm and sunny all day -- that's what the Agore Weather Channel said.

Someone told me long ago, there's a calm before the storm,
I know, it's been coming for some time --

Have You Ever Seen The Rain, CCR