Friday, December 12, 2014

Slump In Oil Price, October 1, 2014 - December 31, 2014: Mid-East Geo-Politics

Mid-East Geo-Politics

Pricing, Part I


Updates


February 1, 2016: Mideast politics suggests Saudi won't cut production despite recent reports that Russia/Saudi were talking about cooperating on cuts.

August 23, 2015: WSJ sits down with Saudi general

July 30, 2015: Saudi Arabia to buy 600 Patriot missiles from the US; $5 billion -- The Weekly Standard.

April 18, 2015: US arms sales to the Mideast, especially Saudi Arabia -- NYT

January 23, 2015: 90-year-old Saudi king dies; 80-year-old brother assumes throne;

December 22, 2014: more clarity -- CLR, Hamm, Forbes, Saudi, Iran, Russia

We start off with: is President Obama organizing communities in the Mideast?


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Six Dots To Connect

Six dots to connect:
I tell my granddaughters, when something doesn't make sense:
  • follow the money
  • ask the question, "Why now?"
  • google it 
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The Six Dots

Is President Obama getting ready to throw Israel under the bus?
  • sanctions on Israel being discussed by the Obama administration -- Christian Science Monitor, December 8, 2014
  • little downside risk: Obama no longer up for re-election; already lost House, Senate (not much more to lose, except veto-proof majority in Senate -- unlikely)
  • Obama needs major legacy initiative
  • presidents are change agents
  • most of his initiatives will die within next ten years (global warming, ObamaCare); needs a legacy
  • throwing Israel under the bus changes the dynamics in the Mideast
  • Saudi has thrown Obama administration under the bus; tit-for-tat
Does Saudi see Russia's hand in Syria-Isis-al-Qaeda?
  • the answer seems pretty obvious
  • with Obama creating a vacuum in the Mideast, will Saudi's alliance with Israel become move transparent?
  • slump in prices, feeling the pain: Venezuela, Iran, Russia, off-shore oil, Canadian oil sands, US shale -- pretty much in that order