IRRs and Relative Costs To Complete Wells In The Bakken/Three Forks -- December 27, 2014

Warning: the percentages in parentheses below are for illustrative purposes only. Do not pay any attention to them. They are for my use only. There are way too many factors that affect IRRs to make them relevant in this setting. Again, the numbers inside the parentheses below are for my use only. Do not look at them. Do not make any financial, investment, or relationship changes based on anything you see inside the parentheses or anything you might see anywhere on this page or in the blog for that matter. If this information is even remotely important to you, check the source. Do not rely on anything in this blog to make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions. 

It should be noted that the information below comes from a third-party presentation that was undated. I assume that it is a recent publication -- mid-2014, but it could have been put together in 2008 but I doubt it. Folks have to remember I have no background in the oil and gas industry. If this information is important to you, go to the source. Do not rely on the information at this blog.

In an earlier post, breaking down the Williston Basin Bakken.

Now, some additional information in parentheses, bold.

In 2014, areas that are predominantly "hot" throughout:

3: West Nesson (35%)
5: Williams Core (30%)
6: Parshall Sanish (50%)
7: Fort Berthold (35%)
10: Nesson Anticline (Middle Bakken - 60%; Three Forks - 40%)

Significant portions of the following areas are also "hot":

2: Dunn County (30%)
11: Southern Bakken Fringe
12: Elm Coulee (25%)

Areas that are "hot" along the river:

8: West McKenzie
9: Williams Perimeter

Now, note the additional information in parentheses behind the areas above -- the number in parentheses, bold: IRR.  

The Bakken Nesson Anticline at 60% is the number one area based on IRR of all areas in either the Bakken or the Eagle Ford. The Eagle Ford Karnes Trough (condensate) is #2 at about 57%.

Another slide comparing costs to complete a well among the Bakken, Utica, Haynesville, and Eagle Ford, among the oil plays, the least expensive to drill a well: the Bakken Parshall Sanish (among all plays, oil, condensate, gas, the BPS was also the least expensive).

Among the oil plays, the least expensive areas to drill oil wells, in order: Bakken Parshall Sanish, Bakken Nesson Anticline, Bakken Dunn County, Bakken West Nesson, Bakken Northern Mountrail, Bakken Williams Core, Three Forks Nesson Anticline.

By far, the most expensive wells were in Three Forks Fort Berthold and Bakken Fort Berthold.  

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It will be interesting to see this presentation updated in a few year. Two things change: a) technology; and, b) knowledge.

With regard to the second (knowledge), I feel pretty confident that the middle Bakken is pretty much fully delineated in the Williston Basin. However, I'm not convinced the Three Forks upper bench (TF1) is nearly as well delineated as some would lead us to believe. I feel quite strongly that the delineation of the lower benches of the Three Forks (most importantly TF2 and TF3) are only beginning to be delineated, and whatever exploration was going on with the high density pilots, the latter were severely impacted by the oil price slump that began in late 2014.