It should be noted that the information below comes from a third-party presentation that was undated. I assume that it is a recent publication -- mid-2014, but it could have been put together in 2008 but I doubt it. Folks have to remember I have no background in the oil and gas industry. If this information is important to you, go to the source. Do not rely on the information at this blog.
In an earlier post, breaking down the Williston Basin Bakken.
Now, some additional information in parentheses, bold.
In 2014, areas that are predominantly "hot" throughout:
3: West Nesson (35%)Significant portions of the following areas are also "hot":
5: Williams Core (30%)
6: Parshall Sanish (50%)
7: Fort Berthold (35%)
10: Nesson Anticline (Middle Bakken - 60%; Three Forks - 40%)
2: Dunn County (30%)Areas that are "hot" along the river:
11: Southern Bakken Fringe
12: Elm Coulee (25%)
8: West McKenzieNow, note the additional information in parentheses behind the areas above -- the number in parentheses, bold: IRR.
9: Williams Perimeter
The Bakken Nesson Anticline at 60% is the number one area based on IRR of all areas in either the Bakken or the Eagle Ford. The Eagle Ford Karnes Trough (condensate) is #2 at about 57%.
Another slide comparing costs to complete a well among the Bakken, Utica, Haynesville, and Eagle Ford, among the oil plays, the least expensive to drill a well: the Bakken Parshall Sanish (among all plays, oil, condensate, gas, the BPS was also the least expensive).
Among the oil plays, the least expensive areas to drill oil wells, in order: Bakken Parshall Sanish, Bakken Nesson Anticline, Bakken Dunn County, Bakken West Nesson, Bakken Northern Mountrail, Bakken Williams Core, Three Forks Nesson Anticline.
By far, the most expensive wells were in Three Forks Fort Berthold and Bakken Fort Berthold.
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It will be interesting to see this presentation updated in a few year. Two things change: a) technology; and, b) knowledge.
With regard to the second (knowledge), I feel pretty confident that the middle Bakken is pretty much fully delineated in the Williston Basin. However, I'm not convinced the Three Forks upper bench (TF1) is nearly as well delineated as some would lead us to believe. I feel quite strongly that the delineation of the lower benches of the Three Forks (most importantly TF2 and TF3) are only beginning to be delineated, and whatever exploration was going on with the high density pilots, the latter were severely impacted by the oil price slump that began in late 2014.
An irr absent knowing the price realized (or estimated if the irr is a forecast) is useless information.
ReplyDeleteNice detailed breakdown, Mr. Oksol.
ReplyDeleteI would imagine there may be an accelerated interest in refrac'ing if the early results are positive ... especially for operators looking for more economical pursuits.
Delineation drilling is going to stop.
ReplyDeleteThe purpose if delineation drilling is to define the boundary of the deposit.
The focus for 2015 will be those areas that are most profitable in 50$ bbl environment. By definition , delineation's purpose is to find the fringe (I e least profitable) area of the play. Bakken oil cos that are leveraged are in survival mode . The last thing on their minds is delineation.
I think that's what I've been saying about delineation drilling. However, recent permitting suggesting delineation (as I define it) is continuing. Again, folks have to remember that I am talking from a lay person's point of view -- I have no formal training or background in the oil and gas industry and I assume my use of terminology is not correct.
DeleteIf this information is important to you go to the source. See my disclaimer.
Thank you. I appreciate that.
DeleteYou are absolutely correct. In addition, the presentation was undated, so I don't know if the presentation was based on information from 2000, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, or in the past six months. The purpose of the post was to provide a comparison of the various areas.
DeleteBased on the number of folks who have written with concerns about this presentation suggests that I am misjudging my audience.