The economy in 1Q14 collapsed (their word, not mine), with GDP collapsing somewhere between 2.1% and 3% -- the numbers vary depending which one you believe. From that post:
And then this, from the CNN business analyst: "don't freak out about a minus 3% GDP (rounded)." The CNN business analyst's summary:But here we are, one quarter later and surging to 4%. A lot of oil is going to be needed to sustain that growth.
The same old story remains: "This recovery is underway, but it's choppy and still very slow."
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Active rigs:
| 7/30/2014 | 07/30/2013 | 07/30/2012 | 07/30/2011 | 07/30/2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 192 | 181 | 206 | 183 | 143 |
RBN Energy: takeaway capacity and disappointing "basis" for natural gas in the Marcellus.
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Bloomberg On The Economy (Today)
Bloomberg is reporting:
U.S. stocks rallied and the dollar strengthened to a four-month high as data showed faster-than-expected economic growth and better earnings from Twitter Inc. to Amgen Inc. Treasuries fell, while commodities rose.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.3 percent to 1,976.85 at 9:32 a.m. in New York, with Twitter shares surging 23 percent.
Oil and copper rallied more than 0.3 percent. Russian stocks and the ruble advanced as some investors saw U.S. and European Union sanctions as milder than anticipated.
Gross domestic product rose at a 4 percent annualized rate after shrinking 2.1 percent from January through March, Commerce Department figures showed.
“If we look at the data around the earnings season, we think it’s very robust. It’s a very favorable environment for stocks.”The big story here: that wasn't even a headline, that 2Q14 GDP surged to 4%. The big story was Twitter.
Twitter? Really?
UC Irvine? Really?
LA Trade Tech School? Really?
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Hey, what were the results of the poll regarding the 2Q14 GDP?
- 2.0% or less: 45%
- 2.1% to 2.5% (inclusive): 31%
- 2.6% to 2.9% (inclusive): 10%
- 3.0%: 7%
- 3.1% or greater: 7%
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Reuters Take On The Economy
Reuters is reporting:
U.S. economic growth accelerated more than expected in the second quarter and the decline in output in the prior period was less steep than previously reported, bolstering views for a stronger performance in the last six months of the year.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.0 percent annual rate as activity picked up broadly after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.
That pushed GDP above the economy's potential growth trend, which analysts put somewhere between a 2 percent and 2.5 percent pace. Economists had forecast the economy growing at a 3.0 percent rate in the second quarter after a previously reported 2.9 percent contraction.
A separate report showing private employers added 218,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, a decline from June's hefty gain of 281,000, did little to change perceptions the economy was strengthening.
if the 4th qtr of 2013 GDP was considered 100 %, then a 0.021 percent reduction in the 1st qtr of 2014 made GDP at 97.9 % of 4th qtr 2013. The new 2nd qtr Number is a 4 % increase so .979 x 1.04 equals 1.01816..
ReplyDeleteFor the first 2 Quarters of 2014 then the GDP grew 1.816 %. compared to the gdp of 4th qtr 2013 . .don
It will be interesting to hear what the CNBC talking heads have to say. I don't get cable television so I will have to rely on others). I was just surprised how muted the press was on a GDP report of 4%. It was NOT a Bloomberg headline (it was almost buried in the paragraph on Twitter) and it was not a Drudge Report headline.
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