Thursday, February 20, 2014

Jobs Watch: Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease Slightly

Some obscure website is reporting: the advance figure was 336,000; a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 339,000.

The four-week moving average, a better indicator of how poorly things are going, rose 1,750 to 336,750. The fact the newest figure almost matches the average suggests nothing is changing one way or the other.

Looking at the graph at the linked site, which shows the four-week average going back to 2000, suggests we are probably going to be at this level (330,000 +/-) for the rest of my investing lifetime, barring another repeat of what we've just been through.

It's really quite remarkable how steep the curve was going up back in 2008 - 2009, and how quickly it has come back to the baseline, in the big scheme of things, despite the politics and the uncertainty of ObamaCare.

Looks like happy days are here again.

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