Sunday, September 16, 2012

What MDW WIll Be Talking About Monday Even If Others Aren't

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Amazing

Talk about a slew of wells coming off the confidential list Monday; expect fully a third to be on DRL status:

  • 21363, 155, Samson Resources, Biscayne 0310-04TFH, Ambrose, t7/12; cum 2K 7/12; 
  • 21862, 389, CLR, Lindseth 1-32AH, Hanson, t6/12; cum 12K 7/12; 
  • 22365, drl, Chimney Sweep, Hondl 21-1, Wildcat, Stark County,
  • 22377, 1,482, SM Energy, Anderson 5-14H, Croff, t7/12; cum 22K 7/12; 

  • 20156, 686, EOG, Hardscrabble 8-0409H, Painted Woods, t412; cum 43K 7/12
  • 20583, 128, EOG, Clearwater 27-3102H, Ross, t4/12; cum 61K 7/12; 
  • 20831, 530, Whiting, Kubas 34-7PH/Kubas 34-7TFH, North Creek, t3/12; cum 16K 7/12; 
  • 21769, drl, BEXP, Domaskin 30-31 3H, Alger,
  • 21849, 28, Baytex, Thompson 2-11-161-99H 1BP, Garnet, t3/12; cum 13K 7/12; 
  • 22015, 382, EOG, Sidonia 49-3019H, Clear Water, t4/12; cum 37K 7/12; 
  • 22115, 1,505, Denbury, Lundin 41-14SWH, Siverston, t712; cum 24K 7/12; 
  • 22125, 484, Whiting, Arndt 14-5TFX, Sanish, t3/12; cum 23K 7/12; 
  • 22146, 669, Hess, BW-Stoveland 149-100-1003H-1, Ellsworth, t7/12; cum 15K 7/12; 
  • 18968, drl, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-95-22D-15-1H, Eagle Nest,

  • 21966, drl, CLR, Fairbanks 1-20H, Oliver, cum 14K 7/12; no IP yet;
  • 22240, drl, Enerplus, Net 149-92-30B-31H, Heart Butte, cum 6K 7/12; no IP yet;
  • 22541, 951, BEXP, Cora 20-17 2TFH, Poe, t7/12; cum 11K 7/12; 
  • 21081, 2,053, KOG, P Peterson 155-99-2-15-22-15H3, Epping,

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Cheering

For geeks, the new iPhone processor will be talked about Monday:
Eric Fox's headline: major announcement at the Barclays CEO energy conference; not sure what major announcement he was talking about; it appears to be a summary of "all the above" at the conference with focus on KOG. Whatever. 

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Whining

Replacement referees in the NFL? Aren't both sides equally affected?

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Spoiled

Chicago teachers won't vote until Tuesday; too difficult to come in Sunday night and vote on new contract.
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Blustering

Saudi Arabia says oil prices to high; will intervene to bring prices down. Iran says prices too low; didn't say what it would do to raise prices -- perhaps hold back on production/export -- oh, that's right. They already are -- through sanctions. Sort of.

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Profit-Taking

Stock market futures down Sunday evening; oil futures up slightly. Considering the credit rating for the US has been lowered (again), it is surprising futures are not even worse. Just saying.

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Ignoring Reality

Tight shale forecasts -- just a bit too ambitious? -- The Oil Drum
Wood Mackenzie is forecasting that tight oil production will rise from 1.5 mbd this year to 4.1 mbd in 2020, with the Bakken producing 1.3 mbd, the Eagle Ford 1.3 mbd, the Permian plays (Bone Spring, Avalon, Wolfcamp and Cline) will produce 440 kbd, and the Niobrara should be good for 90 kbd. With the decline in production from the impact of Isaac in the Gulf not yet over, it is not yet clear whether the plateau in US production that was starting to form will continue, or whether the gains in production that these projections require will continue.
Except for the part about "Isaac" everything else is "good." "Isaac" was hardly a speed bump; not sure why it was even referenced.

Whether or not the Bakken hits 1.3 million bold by 2015, the projection that the Niobrara will be good for all of 90,000 bopd is underwhelming, to say the least, and explains why no one is really all that excited about it. On the other hand what about Utica and the Mississippi Lime?

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Lovin' It

Thousands of McDonald's restaurants are promoting the chain's coffee by giving away 12 ounce cups of the java every day from Sept. 23 to Sept. 29. No purchase is required to get the free coffee in the restaurants or drive throughs. The promotion is taking place along the East Coast of the United States and is being served in "Newman's Own" coffee cups. I assume the coffee is also "Newman's Own."

Speaking of which, I found one of the best McDonald's restaurants just a short bike ride from where I am staying. It's really quite incredible. And, it has no "McDonald's play places" -- catering to a different sort of consumer, I guess. Lovin' it. Michelle needs to visit. Apple slices have 15 calories.

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Upsetting

Arizona at New England. USC at Stanford.

2 comments:

  1. Wood might be low, if it is 2020. It seems like an old forecast. Or 2015 and old. Niabrara sweet spots are booming. Utica wells are marinating, and processing and pipes are needed. Big jump soon. MS lime hot but might be a different category - loose oil. Permian will jump. Still in early phase.

    By 2020, could be much more @ $150/BO or much less @$35.

    Anon 1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Old forecast.' You could be right. The report reads like it might have been written in 2011.

      http://www.woodmacresearch.com/cgi-bin/wmprod/portal/energy/highlightsDetail.jsp?oid=10730432

      Right or wrong about the forecast, one gets a feel for either quality of the report, or the sophistication of the target audience, when the report includes a play that they forecast to producing only 90,000 bopd, and missing the Utica.

      Delete

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