Sunday, August 26, 2012

What You Will Be Talking About on Monday; OXY Has a Nice Well;

Idle chatter:
The actual announcement to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or reasons leading up to the announcement some weeks from now, could preempt / over-shadow the Republican National Convention. Oil futures are up $1.27 so far tonight, but as my older daughter would say, futures mean "squat."

Futures are up tonight no doubt due to the tropical storm -- Louisiana and Mississippi are under a state of emergency -- but things are heating up in the Mideast, also.  It won't take much of a "terrorist" story in Saudi Arabia to send oil prices sky-high. Things don't look all that hunky-dory in Saudi Arabia. Assuming we are near a tipping point in Syria (and that may be incorrect), to the best of my knowledge, Saudi is the last domino to fall.

Price controls don't/won't work but I can imagine a scenario where the current administration sends up a trial balloon suggesting price controls may be needed in the short term (say, October 12 - November 11).
Other things we will be talking about Monday:

North Dakota's active rig count: 189 (one better than the recent low). 

The QEP deal.

New wells coming off the confidential list:
  • 21485, drl, BR, Bartlett 21-16MBH, Murphy Creek,
  • 21771, drl, BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-18 2H, Alger,
  • 21895, 638, Whiting, Kubas 34-12PH, Bell, 23K, t2/12; cum 6/12; disappointing for a Pronghorn in Bell?
  • 21983, drl, CLR, Alpha 2-14H, Camp,
  • 22006, 855, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-1, 25K in June, 2012, 26K 6/12;
  • 22123, drl, Corinthian, Corinthian Backman 13-26 1H, North Souris, 2K to 3K / month; a nice Spearfishwell;
  • 22147, drl, Hess, AV-H Osborn-163-93-0508H-1, wildcat,
  • 22149, 661, MRO, Dakota 34-7H, Lake Ilo, t7/12; cum --
  • 20695, 168, Whiting, Solberg 34-12TFH, Bell, t2/12; cum 15K 6/12; 
  • 21306, 2,431, KOG, Koala 15-31-30-2H, Poe; t5/12; cum 37K 6/12;
  • 21778, dlr, CLR, Cass 1-9H, Oliver,
  • 21889, 1,596, Whiting, Caryl Locken 21-22H, Sanish, a nice well; t2/12; cum 80K 6/12;
  • 22062, 3,371, BEXP, Anderson 28-33 3H, Alger, t6/12; cum 9K 6/12;
  • 22335, 277, Hunt, Meyers 2-31-30H, Parshall, t7/12; cum 3K 6/12;
  • 22353, 1,007, Slawson, Hatchet {Federal} 1-23-14H, Boxcar Butte, t5/12; cum 16K 6/12;
  • 21227, drl, Zavana, Leopard 20-17H, Stony Creek,
  • 21333, 108, OXY USA, Raphael Stroh 2-13-24H-143-97, 12K in April; down to 2K in June;  t2/12; cum 46K 6/12;  20 stages; 2 million pounds;
OXY has a nice well even though the IP is only 108; it has produced 46,000 bbls in the first four months; however, the decline rate seemed a bit worse than the typical Bakken wells, which are known for their horrendous decline rates; it dropped to 6K in May (third full month of production), after producing an astounding 24K in March, the first full month of production. In April, production had dropped to 12K. The 2K in June is a bit misleading. The well was off-line (putting on a pump?) for 15 days (half the month); a full month might have been closer to 4K. So, we'll see. 

Energy links

RNB Energy: a nice article explaining the weekly "oil numbers"

2 comments:

  1. Hey Bruce How you doing getting around with the Family is Cool and you still keep us informed you have always called it the way it is, anyway Have A Great Rest of the Year,OKAY OKAY Go Figure, Same M.O. the same as the Stroh Well as what happened to our well it seem they broke the liner a few Times or more. I don't know how our well went from 99,000.00 Barrels of oil in less then a year,to Zip Nada very little. That in my book of Oil Facts it was a good well! we won't know how much we are getting now that the pump is on up and running so we will see I was told it's not doing what it did last year. So we have to Pray that the two more permits get put on the Confidential List soon I fill they know OIL IS there so PUT YOUR VERY BEST MEN ON IT HELLOOO It's sSweet Oil so anyway Oxy is supposidly pulling out I see 6 rigs on sites also they have permits to go on the Conf.list, Also Some on it already would they finish up in a field then move on? Probably bad question Well we will see! Thanks for letting me Vent! Gene P.S. Iam sending this Anonymous my first name okay. Thxs.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I really have no idea what various operators will do. Making it difficult to sort out is that there are a lot of permits already issued that will have to be worked, and, of course, the wells on confidential list yet to be reported. So, I think it will be six to twelve months before we get an idea of what's going on and what might happen. Interestingly enough, there's been no slowdown in permitting activity.

      Thank you for kind comments about family. I fly out tomorrow, to the east coast, Atlanta, Georgia. My hunch is that the hurricane will very much affect our travel plans.

      Will try to blog regardless.

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